v9.0 speculation

[buttershrimp]

I’m going to say they will likely add the dash cam somewhere later than the launch in an update but we will see.

I’d like to be able to put map in IC when not using navigation to free up center screen

 

[diplomat33]

I am sure the dashcam feature will be cool but I think there are much bigger priorities like finishing EAP.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

This is what I meant: V9.0 will span a year+ probably. And he said "Hopefully" we get Dashcam in v9.0. Not necessary the first release of v9.0. We have been on v8.1 for about 2 years I believe.

Based on my records, I got 8.0 17.9.3 on 3/15/2017 and then I got 8.1 17.11.3 on 4/2/2017 so it's been about 14 months for 8.1. The 8.0 release came out in September 2016.

 

[u00mem9]

New GUI, and probably Johnson-step the USB music player again.

 

[Brian-MS90D]

Accordingly to Elon the improvements for AP2 should begin to improve exponentially once a baseline competency is reached by the artificial intelligence neural net thing. If Elon is correct, then there will be a long period of development with only the features we have now. Then, almost all of the features will be implemented in relatively very short time (i.e., definition of "exponential"). Thus, if Elon knows what he is talking about on this topic (certainly debatable), then the @thegruf 's question is mostly irrelevant because for X amount of time (years) virtually none of the features will be available, and then all of the sudden they will all be available. The number of years until the exponential improvements begin is therefore the critical question.

In my opinion we have definitely not seen anything close to an exponential improvement for AP2.

 

[d21mike]

Accordingly to Elon the improvements for AP2 should begin to improve exponentially once a baseline competency is reached by the artificial intelligence neural net thing. If Elon is correct, then there will be a long period of development with only the features we have now. Then, almost all of the features will be implemented in relatively very short time (i.e., definition of "exponential"). Thus, if Elon knows what he is talking about on this topic (certainly debatable), then the @thegruf 's question is mostly irrelevant because for X amount of time (years) virtually none of the features will be available, and then all of the sudden they will all be available. The number of years until the exponential improvements begin is therefore the critical question.

In my opinion we have definitely not seen anything close to an exponential improvement for AP2.

I assume it started with 2018.10.4 when they rewrote the NN stuff. And starting in Aug/Sept we should be getting v9 with the start of FSD. That seems pretty fast if the start was 10.4.

 

[diplomat33]

In my opinion we have definitely not seen anything close to an exponential improvement for AP2.

That's because exponential curves start very flat and then suddenly rise very quickly. So in the beginning, it looks like there is no to very little increase and then suddenly you get a massive increase. But if you think about it, we might be at the beginning of the rapid increase. It took well over a year for AP2 just to get to AP1 parity. Now, if V9 comes out in August, we may go from AP1 parity to some highway self-driving in about half that time. If that happens, that would be a pretty big jump indeed. Now, I know a lot of folks are skeptical. But when you look at the vast improvement of 2018.10 and the fact that just about 3 months later, Tesla is talking about releasing some FSD features later this year, I think that bodes well for AP being at the beginning of the sudden increase.

I made this graph to illustrate what I am talking about:

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That's because exponential curves start very flat and then suddenly rise very quickly. So in the beginning, it looks like there is no to very little increase and then suddenly you get a massive increase. But if you think about it, we might be at the beginning of the rapid increase. It took well over a year for AP2 just to get to AP1 parity. Now, if V9 comes out in August, we may go from AP1 parity to some highway self-driving in about half that time. If that happens, that would be a pretty big jump indeed. Now, I know a lot of folks are skeptical. But when you look at the vast improvement of 2018.10 and the fact that just about 3 months later, Tesla is talking about releasing some FSD features later this year, I think that bodes well for AP being at the beginning of the sudden increase.

I made this graph to illustrate what I am talking about:View attachment 312559

Needs a scale for the Y axis. -5 points.

 

[diplomat33]

Needs a scale for the Y axis. -5 points.

Is this better?

 

[croman]

I like how in your graph, AP doesn't get to L5. Its a particularly rosy outlook too.

 

[diplomat33]

I like how in your graph, AP doesn't get to L5. Its a particularly rosy outlook too.

Well, I am an optimistic guy.

I guess I should have put 3 little dots to show the curve is meant to continue to FSD, not stop before FSD.

But honestly, I think I am pretty close. I do think V9 will start to see big improvements in EAP that will show that we are definitely on the exponential increase part towards eventual FSD.

 

[Axael]

About the possible "deal" for people that did not purchase FSD yet: the price for this option has been increased lately in my Tesla Account (from 4200 euros to 5300 euros), so I'm quite doubtful about that "deal"

 

[whitex]

This is what I meant: V9.0 will span a year+ probably. And he said "Hopefully" we get Dashcam in v9.0. Not necessary the first release of v9.0. We have been on v8.1 for about 2 years I believe.

Firmware 9.0 2018.34 - Initial v9.0 Release (last week of August) - Start with first FSD Features. Stop sign?
Firmware 9.0 2018.36 - Second Release of v9.0
Firmware 9.0 2018.38 - Third Release of v9.0
..
..
Firmware 9.0 2018.44 - .... Release of v9.0 with DashCam (late October) - "Hopefully"

Sometime in 2019 we might get v9.1 etc......

And of course all of above could be push out to 2019......

Why 9.1 in 2019, or ever? Why not keep going 9.0.2025.51 for example and beyond? That way Elon supporters can use "FSD functionality was available in v9.0" and "v9.0 was first released in 2018" to imply that Elon delivered FSD in 2018.

 

[Mark_T]

About the possible "deal" for people that did not purchase FSD yet: the price for this option has been increased lately in my Tesla Account (from 4200 euros to 5300 euros), so I'm quite doubtful about that "deal"

Without the price increase there was no room for a deal without annoying those who had already paid, now there is...

 

[croman]

Without the price increase there was no room for a deal without annoying those who had already paid, now there is...

This doesn't make any sense.

 

[Mark_T]

This doesn't make any sense.

Sure it does.

Before the price increase any offer of a discount on the current price, or allowing people to purchase at the 'new car' price would have upset all those who had already paid the price to add FSD.

Now there is a new higher price (which nobody has yet paid) they can run a promotion to offer the FSD add-on at the old price without annoying any previous purchasers and still give new purchasers the feeling that they got a deal...

 

[croman]

Sure it does.

Before the price increase any offer of a discount on the current price, or allowing people to purchase at the 'new car' price would have upset all those who had already paid the price to add FSD.

Now there is a new higher price (which nobody has yet paid) they can run a promotion to offer the FSD add-on at the old price without annoying any previous purchasers and still give new purchasers the feeling that they got a deal...

I understand. Thanks.

 

[thegruf]

i do so hope I'm wrong

 

[thegruf]

This doesn't make any sense.

It's the point I made too - add $1K, then offer existing owners a discount period back to old price.
The discount period incentivises owner to go for the upgrade before the discount lapses.

Folks who bought it with the car dont get pissed as upgrades still pay the same as original deal.

Folks who upgrade when they see start of FSD features can't complain as they can upgrade for price stated when they bought the car

and if you don't upgrade Tesla will keep delivering features until you think the upgrade +$1K is worth it.

(actually Electrek are reporting that the the increase for existing owners should not apply, so the above might sound plausible but it seems TEsla now saying otherwise)

In the meantime Tesla create a nice little earner by upgrading the CPO's at no cost to themselves and slap an extra $5K on the price.

 

[diplomat33]

View attachment 312926

i do so hope I'm wrong

The dates you added at the bottom are too pessimistic IMO. If V9 comes out in August and starts adding some self-driving features, I doubt that it would take another 4 years, per your dates, to only get to Level 2.5 autonomy. V9 itself will probably be pretty close to L2.5 already.