v9.0 speculation

[conman]

I am sure the dashcam feature will be cool but I think there are much bigger priorities like finishing EAP.

You mean like starting EAP.

 

[TaoJones]

That's because exponential curves start very flat and then suddenly rise very quickly. So in the beginning, it looks like there is no to very little increase and then suddenly you get a massive increase. But if you think about it, we might be at the beginning of the rapid increase. It took well over a year for AP2 just to get to AP1 parity. Now, if V9 comes out in August, we may go from AP1 parity to some highway self-driving in about half that time. If that happens, that would be a pretty big jump indeed. Now, I know a lot of folks are skeptical. But when you look at the vast improvement of 2018.10 and the fact that just about 3 months later, Tesla is talking about releasing some FSD features later this year, I think that bodes well for AP being at the beginning of the sudden increase.

I made this graph to illustrate what I am talking about:View attachment 312559

Nice graph, but AP2 is *not* at parity with AP1.

Nor will it be until well after the advent of v9, unless v9 launches out of the gate with speed limit sign reaction.

Speed limit sign reaction with (still broken) database backup will largely fix the AS (that’s Autosteer) broken behavior every time a speed zone change fails to register as is the case today.

If FSD is expected after “exponential progress”, what’s the excuse for the silent E in EAP?

If we go with what we know, then exponential progress is longer than “six months definitely”.

In that spirit, I agree - 18-24 months away remains my estimate for the debut of actually useful FSD (versus gimmicks - see web browser, sometimes working lane change). That leaves all sorts of time for the silent E to no longer be silent, and to release whatever will serve as an FSD feature or two “soon”.

My biggest hope with v9.0 is that they don’t break too much existing functional functionality. The UI and media management can’t be broken much more, so they’re probably safe.

Famous last words.

 

[NewTMSMan]

I am going to go out on a limb and say V9 brings more paid services and upgrades. Dashcam service with 24 hours onine storage and access - $20/month, upgrade backup camera to 360 view - $250, etc.

 

[Bohjaaa]

I would like to see:
"search for updates" button inside the "Tesla T" section, if they want to grey the button out when not connected to wifi, its fine by me.
But the whole continuous guess of when do I get the update, is killing me. I am an IT guy I bought the car for the windows experience
... I know Elon has tweeted about it, just not sure if this will make it in v9.0

 

[Bohjaaa]

I am going to go out on a limb and say V9 brings more paid services and upgrades. Dashcam service with 24 hours onine storage and access - $20/month, upgrade backup camera to 360 view - $250, etc.

I am guessing these could be next Refferal presents

 

[Bladerskb]

Remember guys that Elon in Feb 7 also said that in 3-6 months (again) they would demo cross country. Which puts 6 months at July 7th.

 

[NewTMSMan]

I am guessing these could be next Refferal presents

Nah we know referrals are dying, cannot even use them for the 3.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Remember guys that Elon in Feb 7 also said that in 3-6 months (again) they would demo cross country. Which puts 6 months at July 7th.

That's only 5 months.

7-2=5

 

[GMan324]

OK, maybe I have low expectations, but at least give us speed sensitive volume on the radio. Your killing me bro, my high tech car is missing a basic feature!

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

OK, maybe I have low expectations, but at least give us speed sensitive volume on the radio. Your killing me bro, my high tech car is missing a basic feature!

Careful what you wish for.

The Model 3 has this, and it's already been blamed for at least one accident. Where the driver was trying to deal with the radio volume going to max, and wasn't paying attention to the road.

Somehow there is/was a glitch that the volume would just keep increasing.

 

[Upscaleman]

Is this better?

View attachment 312574

The y axis should start at today's date and stop on the date the sun is projected to finally fizzle out.

 

[Upscaleman]

I'd be happy with an AI with Barry White's voice.

 

[unbelievable]

My biggest hope with v9.0 is that they don’t break too much existing functional functionality.

Was it ever revealed what the guy who was fired for inserting bugs into software at Tesla actually did? Can he not be the scapegoat for every bug and problem that's happened in the last few years?

 

[dark cloud]

I noticed today that "August" has already become "a few months", which is basically the end of September.

"A few months" is also basically the extreme limit of Elon's sense of time, so it's very difficult to entertain the idea that this release will be coming any time soon.

sorry - did he specify which year?

my guess
target: August / Actual:October

(2018 if we're lucky) - yeah sorry Telsa but the delays do earn you a few quips

The first rule of customer service: underpromise and over deliver.

Careful what you wish for.

The Model 3 has this, and it's already been blamed for at least one accident. Where the driver was trying to deal with the radio volume going to max, and wasn't paying attention to the road.

Somehow there is/was a glitch that the volume would just keep increasing.

people will find any excuse to crash their car these days... how about just slowing down?

 

[GMan324]

Careful what you wish for.

The Model 3 has this, and it's already been blamed for at least one accident. Where the driver was trying to deal with the radio volume going to max, and wasn't paying attention to the road.

Somehow there is/was a glitch that the volume would just keep increasing.

Yeah, they already removed it from the M3. Seems like an easy thing to make work.

 

[E-Ryc]

Careful what you wish for.

The Model 3 has this, and it's already been blamed for at least one accident. Where the driver was trying to deal with the radio volume going to max, and wasn't paying attention to the road.

Somehow there is/was a glitch that the volume would just keep increasing.

Well, the fact Tesla has incompetent coders (and some customers are stupid) doesn't make that feature useless in principle.
Worked great in my old car, I didn't need to touch volume for months.

 

[Bladerskb]

Another 3-6 months go by and absolutely nothing...

But but elon said he could easily do it by gaming it...

The same elon who said Tesla will easily make level 5 by dec 2017 and have it summon without a driver by cross country for you anywhere in the us Q1 2018.

 

[Muhammad]

The same elon who said Tesla will easily make level 5 by dec 2017 and have it summon without a driver by cross country for you anywhere in the us Q1 2018.

hmm... Fill me in pls when he said this exactly

 

[BigD0g]

hmm... Fill me in pls when he said this exactly

Search twitter and previous earning reports, he’s said at least that much, and really should stop talking about exponential curves, since he said last summer the exponential curve for AP was starting....

 

[diplomat33]

Here's my revised speculation for EAP/FSD timeline:

September 2018: V9 update will bring true highway L2 autonomy
(blind spot detection, auto lane change without driver input, freeway transition and exits).

Spring 2019: Highway L3 autonomy achieved
(hands free driving on highway with no nags)

Summer 2019: AP3 chip released to the public. Limited L3 autonomy on city streets
(traffic lights and stop sign recognition)

Winter 2019: limited L4 autonomy.
(car can self-drive and navigate some city streets but driver will get "hands on wheel" nags)