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v9.0 speculation

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Careful what you wish for.

The Model 3 has this, and it's already been blamed for at least one accident. Where the driver was trying to deal with the radio volume going to max, and wasn't paying attention to the road.

Somehow there is/was a glitch that the volume would just keep increasing.
It worked great in my 2007 Prius. One has to wonder why Tesla can't get to work simple things that other cars have had for over 10 years.
 
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I would like to see:
"search for updates" button inside the "Tesla T" section, if they want to grey the button out when not connected to wifi, its fine by me.
But the whole continuous guess of when do I get the update, is killing me. I am an IT guy I bought the car for the windows experience :p
... I know Elon has tweeted about it, just not sure if this will make it in v9.0

As a software guy I really appreciate there approach to rolling updates. I am sure it has a rhyme and a reason, likely to phase in rollout based on hardware compatibility and they wind up getting some pretty immediate feedback to continue (or stop) rollout vs. just blasting it out, having issues, winding it back and going into massive bug fixing mode. This is the modern era of software, it's always rolling out...The car is always getting better.
 
Here's my revised speculation for EAP/FSD timeline:

September 2018: V9 update will bring true highway L2 autonomy
(blind spot detection, auto lane change without driver input, freeway transition and exits).

There's already a true L2 in GM supercruise. The first one actually, if you were trying to insinuate that V9 as being first.
Spring 2019: Highway L3 autonomy achieved
(hands free driving on highway with no nags)

L3 is NOT hands free its eyes free. Hands free already exist in supercruise.

Summer 2019: AP3 chip released to the public. Limited L3 autonomy on city streets
(traffic lights and stop sign recognition)

Winter 2019: limited L4 autonomy.
(car can self-drive and navigate some city streets but driver will get "hands on wheel" nags)

Again L3 = watching movies, videos, texting, playing games, aka not pay attention.

Again L4 = sleeping in the car.

None of that is what you described. Hence you are still describing a L2 system.

Which till this day is still inferior to other L2 system.
 
I wonder if they are going to require hands-on-wheel for on-ramp off-ramp. One thing is requiring it for lane keeping, the driver can easily see what is ahead, but if they start changing lanes without the driver’s input is going to be interesting.
 
hmm... Fill me in pls when he said this exactly

December 2015: "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years." -

Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years

January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY" -

Elon Musk on Twitter

June 2016: ""I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem," he said. "I think we are probably less than two years away." -

Two years until self-driving cars are on the road – is Elon Musk right?

March 2017: "I think that is about two years" (Sleeping in a driverless tesla) -

Transcript of "The future we're building -- and boring"

March 2018: "I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person."

Elon Musk repeatedly lies for positive PR and stock surges. Its completely naive for anyone to think "he's just being optimistic".
Saying EAP will be available in 3 months or Level 5 FSD in 2 year (3 years ago) when not one single line of code has been written is not optimism its being dishonest.

Elon musk has perfected the art of lying to generate thousands of articles about Tesla having self driving technology. To the point that most people i talk to think teslas are self driving cars you can sleep in. Its ridiculous.

There's a reason elon tweets about everything he does. Its because he knows thousands of articles have been created off his tweets. One day, its going to catch up to him and he's gonna pay for all his lies that he has said to deceive people.
 
There's already a true L2 in GM supercruise. The first one actually, if you were trying to insinuate that V9 as being first.

No, I was not saying that V9 will be the first true L2 system in the world. I was saying it will be true L2 for Tesla.


L3 is NOT hands free its eyes free. Hands free already exist in supercruise.

Why are you bringing up Supercruise again? Who cares what it can do? My post and this thread is about what Tesla's V9 update will do.

And my reference to "hands free" was merely trying to be descriptive of what I think EAP will be like. I think EAP in Spring 2019 will probably be "eyes off" too for highway driving so, yes I think my label of "highway L3" is perfectly accurate.

Again L3 = watching movies, videos, texting, playing games, aka not pay attention.

Again L4 = sleeping in the car.

None of that is what you described. Hence you are still describing a L2 system.

Which till this day is still inferior to other L2 system.

I wrote that the car can self-drive and navigate city streets on its own. That's certainly not L2. I said that it will require nags only because Tesla may want to do it as a precaution. But I think "winter 2019" will give us what we saw in the FSD video. It may not be L4 in your mind but it's not still L2, no way. I may wrong in my prediction of course, but my prediction is not L2.
 
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I wonder if they are going to require hands-on-wheel for on-ramp off-ramp. One thing is requiring it for lane keeping, the driver can easily see what is ahead, but if they start changing lanes without the driver’s input is going to be interesting.

Well, the system will ask the driver to take back control at the end of an off ramp exit so it will hands-on then.
 
December 2015: "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years." -

Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years

January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY" -

Elon Musk on Twitter

June 2016: ""I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem," he said. "I think we are probably less than two years away." -

Two years until self-driving cars are on the road – is Elon Musk right?

March 2017: "I think that is about two years" (Sleeping in a driverless tesla) -

Transcript of "The future we're building -- and boring"

March 2018: "I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person."

Elon Musk repeatedly lies for positive PR and stock surges. Its completely naive for anyone to think "he's just being optimistic".
Saying EAP will be available in 3 months or Level 5 FSD in 2 year (3 years ago) when not one single line of code has been written is not optimism its being dishonest.

Elon musk has perfected the art of lying to generate thousands of articles about Tesla having self driving technology. To the point that most people i talk to think teslas are self driving cars you can sleep in. Its ridiculous.

There's a reason elon tweets about everything he does. Its because he knows thousands of articles have been created off his tweets. One day, its going to catch up to him and he's gonna pay for all his lies that he has said to deceive people.

So you must also be the guy that calls The Weather Channel a bunch of liars, as well...
 
No, I was not saying that V9 will be the first true L2 system in the world. I was saying it will be true L2 for Tesla.

It will only be true L2 if its completely hands free like supercruise.





Why are you bringing up Supercruise again? Who cares what it can do? My post and this thread is about what Tesla's V9 update will do.

Because supercruise is the only true L2 system and you said V9 will be hands free and true L2.

And my reference to "hands free" was merely trying to be descriptive of what I think EAP will be like. I think EAP in Spring 2019 will probably be "eyes off" too for highway driving so, yes I think my label of "highway L3" is perfectly accurate.

You said "(hands free driving on highway with no nags)"

I wrote that the car can self-drive and navigate city streets on its own. That's certainly not L2.
It is L2 according to the SAE.

I said that it will require nags only because Tesla may want to do it as a precaution.
Which makes it L2.
But I think "winter 2019" will give us what we saw in the FSD video.
The system in that demo had a disengagement/takeover rate of every 1 mile.

It may not be L4 in your mind but it's not still L2, no way.

Sorry to disappoint you, but Its not my mind, its the SAE.

I may wrong in my prediction of course, but my prediction is not L2.

It clearly is according to the SAE.
 
It will only be true L2 if its completely hands free like supercruise.

Because supercruise is the only true L2 system and you said V9 will be hands free and true L2.

hands off is not a requirement for "true L2". To be "true L2", the car just needs to be able to handle steering and speed. We think of "hands free" as a measuring stick for L2 only because being hands free is a nice visual indicator that we trust the car to steer. But it's not an absolute requirement. You can have a hands-on system that is still L2 like EAP.

And EAP will be a better L2 than Supercruise because it will be able to handle on-off ramp exits which supercruise cannot do.

You said "(hands free driving on highway with no nags)"

It is L2 according to the SAE.

Which makes it L2.


Well, the SAE says that L3 is a system that handles speed, steering, and monitors the environment for the driver. Hands free driving on the highway with no nags could be L2 or L3 depending on what the car does with monitoring the environment.
 
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Well, the SAE says that L3 is a system that handles speed, steering, and monitors the environment for the driver. Hands free driving on the highway with no nags could be L2 or L3 depending on what the car does with monitoring the environment.

Absolutely not, you make it sound like L2/L3 can be easily mistaken.

But the reality is that there is a huge gulf between l2 and L3. Hands free driving on the highway with no nags doesnt make a car L3.

The difference is:

Level 2:
Car controls steering and braking. Driver monitors the complete driving task and environment and must take control instantaneously at any moment.

Level 3:
Car controls steering, braking and monitors the complete driving task and environment. The driver can then turn their attention to other tasks like watching a movie. However driver must be ready to respond to appriopriate request to intervene (10 secs).

Saying no nags = level 3 would be saying supercruise is level 3 because you can drive for hours without disengagement.
 
Absolutely not, you make it sound like L2/L3 can be easily mistaken.

But the reality is that there is a huge gulf between l2 and L3. Hands free driving on the highway with no nags doesnt make a car L3.

The difference is:

Level 2:
Car controls steering and braking. Driver monitors the complete driving task and environment and must take control instantaneously at any moment.

Level 3:
Car controls steering, braking and monitors the complete driving task and environment. The driver can then turn their attention to other tasks like watching a movie. However driver must be ready to respond to appriopriate request to intervene (10 secs).

Saying no nags = level 3 would be saying supercruise is level 3 because you can drive for hours without disengagement.

I did not say that there was no difference between L2 and L3. In fact, I specifically explained that the big difference between the two systems is that L2 does not monitor the environment and L3 does. What I said is that it is possible for both L2 and L3 to be hands free with no nags. Supercruise which is L2 is "hands free, no nags" and the definition of L3 implies "hands free, no nags" since clearly the driver would not be holding the wheel or be nagged to hold the wheel, if they could turn their attention other tasks like watching a movie. So both L2 and L3 can be "hands free, no nags".

I think where the confusion might be is that I said earlier that:
"Spring 2019: Highway L3 autonomy achieved
(hands free driving on highway with no nags)"

You seem to be interpreting my statement as saying that "hands free driving with no nags" = L3. I can see why you might think that. But I was not saying that at all! What I was trying to say is that I think EAP will be both L3 and "hands free with no nags".
 
Absolutely not, you make it sound like L2/L3 can be easily mistaken.

But the reality is that there is a huge gulf between l2 and L3. Hands free driving on the highway with no nags doesnt make a car L3.

The difference is:

Level 2:
Car controls steering and braking. Driver monitors the complete driving task and environment and must take control instantaneously at any moment.

Level 3:
Car controls steering, braking and monitors the complete driving task and environment. The driver can then turn their attention to other tasks like watching a movie. However driver must be ready to respond to appriopriate request to intervene (10 secs).

Saying no nags = level 3 would be saying supercruise is level 3 because you can drive for hours without disengagement.

I'm not sure how people can possibly confuse the two, but they routinely do.

The dividing line is pretty simply, and that it's liability/responsibility.

On L2 the responsibility is on the driver
On L3 the responsibility is the car/manufacture. This assumes the driver responded appropriately to a request to intervene.

I'm a little concerned the manufactures themselves will make things murky. Like you mentioned Supercruise being the only true L2 system because it's hands free.

The problem with that statement is the industry itself essentially threw out the hands free part when actually bringing systems to the market as L2 except for SuperCruise. Before SuperCruise the industry standard was detecting hands at the wheel as a way of measuring driven engagement (even though it was silly).

It remains to be seen as to whether SuperCruise will really catch on to push the market, or if it's simply going to be another GM innovation that never went anywhere.

It's one of those "late to the game" kinda things, but this game is going into extra innings so who knows.
 
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It worked great in my 2007 Prius. One has to wonder why Tesla can't get to work simple things that other cars have had for over 10 years.

It really comes down to how things are implemented.

Toyota likely went to suppliers to get that functionality integrated into their system.

Tesla rolled their own solution.

It likely got butchered because Engineering can only do so many things at once. It doesn't help that the CEO goes out of his way to give the validation/verification team extra work to do. Like validating that easter eggs like Atari games don't mess anything up.
 
December 2015: "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years." -

Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years

January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY" -

Elon Musk on Twitter

June 2016: ""I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem," he said. "I think we are probably less than two years away." -

Two years until self-driving cars are on the road – is Elon Musk right?

March 2017: "I think that is about two years" (Sleeping in a driverless tesla) -

Transcript of "The future we're building -- and boring"

March 2018: "I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person."

Elon Musk repeatedly lies for positive PR and stock surges. Its completely naive for anyone to think "he's just being optimistic".
Saying EAP will be available in 3 months or Level 5 FSD in 2 year (3 years ago) when not one single line of code has been written is not optimism its being dishonest.

Elon musk has perfected the art of lying to generate thousands of articles about Tesla having self driving technology. To the point that most people i talk to think teslas are self driving cars you can sleep in. Its ridiculous.

There's a reason elon tweets about everything he does. Its because he knows thousands of articles have been created off his tweets. One day, its going to catch up to him and he's gonna pay for all his lies that he has said to deceive people.
None of Elon's tweets ever mentioned level 5, which was the claim. I'm not debating what Full Self Drive means, just what was claimed.

My emphasis:
The same elon who said Tesla will easily make level 5 by dec 2017 and have it summon without a driver by cross country for you anywhere in the us Q1 2018.
Implied? Maybe.
 
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EAP/L3 Highway with V9.

What we know from what's been released is V9 will have the E in AP where it automatically changes lanes without the user telling it to.

I can't be the only one that finds it a bit at odds with being L2 in that it's making a decision that requires way more situational awareness than is typically the case for an L2 system.

The fact that it's making a decision for you, and executing it without input from you means that there should be some liability in it.

Or are they seriously expecting a human to intervene if it screws up? It's one thing to intervene with what's coming up in front of you, but it's entirely different with what's coming up behind you, and in your blindspot area.

It makes more sense if it's an L3 system, but I'm not sure there is even a regulatory path towards L3 in this country. There is so little that Audi decided against introducing their L3 (but, very limited L3) in this country for the foreseeable future. Instead they're going to introduce it in Germany.