v9.0 speculation

[ucmndd]

The dividing line is pretty simply, and that it's liability/responsibility.

On L2 the responsibility is on the driver
On L3 the responsibility is the car/manufacture. This assumes the driver responded appropriately to a request to intervene.

And this is precisely why Tesla is not going to be above L2 any time soon. The current chasm between driver being liable and car being liable is massive. Even if Tesla’s technology gets to that point (a big if), the world is obviously not ready for that change.

One need look no farther than Tesla’s trend RE “nags” to get a very clear picture here. We’re going in the wrong direction. If you think they’re going to suddenly become confident enough in the technology in the next couple years to say “yup the car messed up” vs “yup the driver messed up” the next time someone dies on autopilot, you’re deluded.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

And this is precisely why Tesla is not going to be above L2 any time soon. The current chasm between driver being liable and car being liable is massive. Even if Tesla’s technology gets to that point (a big if), the world is obviously not ready for that change.

One need look no farther than Tesla’s trend RE “nags” to get a very clear picture here. We’re going in the wrong direction. If you think they’re going to suddenly become confident enough in the technology in the next couple years to say “yup the car messed up” vs “yup the driver messed up” the next time someone dies on autopilot, you’re deluded.

Oh, I'm in complete agreement that Tesla is going to be stuck at L2 for awhile.

My only curiosity is just how far Tesla will go with L2 without every taking any responsibility.

The other big question is L3 itself, and what the regulatory hurdles are in the US. It's not just Tesla, but every car company.

It feels like the future is only Waymo in limited areas which isn't all that exciting.

 

[ucmndd]

Oh, I'm in complete agreement that Tesla is going to be stuck at L2 for awhile.

My only curiosity is just how far Tesla will go with L2 without every taking any responsibility.

The other big question is L3 itself, and what the regulatory hurdles are in the US. It's not just Tesla, but every car company.

It feels like the future is only Waymo in limited areas which isn't all that exciting.

Sorry if I made that last post sound like I was disagreeing with you. I think you’re exactly right. The “you’re” in “you’re deluded” above was a general “you’re”.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Weird... Elon just tweeted that first exclusively FSD features are coming in 3 months and then deleted it...

EDIT: Clarified he meant to say same timeframe as for HW3 upgrade(4-6 months per an earlier tweet)

 

[conman]

Weird... Elon just tweeted that first exclusively FSD features are coming in 3 months and then deleted it...

LOL perhaps he really means 3 months this time but the whole 3 months 6 months quote from last year has become the bane of his existence and he doesn't want to be haunted by yet another failed timeline prediction.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

LOL perhaps he really means 3 months this time but the whole 3 months 6 months quote from last year has become the bane of his existence and he doesn't want to be haunted by yet another failed timeline prediction.

He really needs to avoid mentioning timeframes of 3 or 6 months ever again. Any time I see any estimate of either, I immediately physically cringe.

 

[chillaban]

He really needs to avoid mentioning timeframes of 3 or 6 months ever again. Any time I see any estimate of either, I immediately physically cringe.

It seems like estimates within a few weeks or 1 month tend to be somewhat accurate, but anything longer seems to be totally meaningless.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

It seems like estimates within a few weeks or 1 month tend to be somewhat accurate, but anything longer seems to be totally meaningless.

I feel like there was a counter-example but I can't remember what it was.... Auto-highbeams or auto-wipers I think... At any rate, on the plus side, free HW3 upgrade for those of us with FSD is confirmed. On the downside, no upgrade without it is also confirmed.

 

[conman]

At any rate, on the plus side, free HW3 upgrade for those of us with FSD is confirmed. On the downside, no upgrade without it is also confirmed.

I wonder what date they'll use as a cut-off then for those who've purchased FSD so far vs those who've yet to purchase FSD? There might be a run of people now purchasing it in order to get the free HW upgrade as well, but will they qualify?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I wonder what date they'll use as a cut-off then for those who've purchased FSD so far vs those who've yet to purchase FSD? There might be a run of people now purchasing it in order to get the free HW upgrade as well, but will they qualify?

"the in-car purchase self-driving will get the upgrade too?"

"Yes"

I guess that's not SUPER explicit that it applies to anyone who ever buys it, but I can't really see an avenue at this point for them to offer the software upgrade without also offering the hardware. He's confirmed it's needed for FSD, so without it, the $5k would be for absolutely nothing.

 

[conman]

He's confirmed it's needed for FSD, so without it, the $5k would be for absolutely nothing.

Fair enough. I guess they sold the vehicle saying it was capable of FSD so perhaps any purchase of it will then retrofit the hardware as needed... but they seriously need to clarify, otherwise there'll be another wave of angry something something. Fortunately I paid for it ages ago so I'll be getting the upgrade in 3-6 months!

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I'll be getting the upgrade in 3-6 months!

Maybe/Definitely.

 

[chillaban]

I feel like there was a counter-example but I can't remember what it was.... Auto-highbeams or auto-wipers I think... At any rate, on the plus side, free HW3 upgrade for those of us with FSD is confirmed. On the downside, no upgrade without it is also confirmed.

I feel like that's probably fine. At least until there's any meaningful divergence in functionality between EAP and FSD. AP2.0/2.5 is already substantially more powerful than any other L2 ADAS system's hardware.

 

[ucmndd]

Weird... Elon just tweeted that first exclusively FSD features are coming in 3 months and then deleted it...

EDIT: Clarified he meant to say same timeframe as for HW3 upgrade(4-6 months per an earlier tweet)

And in the latest installment of ElonTime, in less than two months the timeline for FSD features has slipped from "August" to "4-6 months from August".

Keep holding your breath...

 

[conman]

And in the latest installment of ElonTime, in less than two months the timeline for FSD features has slipped from "August" to "4-6 months from August".

Keep holding your breath...

Well that was inevitable. However if they start releasing betas to the early access program by September, that still fits his prediction, albeit it not being what people read the prediction as meaning...

 

[chillaban]

Sigh at the risk of sounding like an utter fanboy: I'm still appreciative that the first substantial feature sounds like something all EAP buyers would get. They could've been jerks and delivered something that forces everyone to contemplate putting down the money for FSD.

 

[d21mike]

Weird... Elon just tweeted that first exclusively FSD features are coming in 3 months and then deleted it...

EDIT: Clarified he meant to say same timeframe as for HW3 upgrade(4-6 months per an earlier tweet)

Confused. Are you joking? Was there a tweet that deleted but then clarified? Anyway, if there is a tweet that could be helpful please post a link or at least cut/paste the actual tweet. Thanks.

 

[TaoJones]

And in the latest installment of ElonTime, in less than two months the timeline for FSD features has slipped from "August" to "4-6 months from August".

Keep holding your breath...

Typical, sadly enough.

The forecast versus reality timeline is so lacking in credibility that it makes sense to wait to get something substantial later rather than something gimmicky now.

I’d rather wait for a single mobile technician appointment in, say, February (and even that’s pushing it) during which the board swap (new SoC) and software update occur. No need to clog up SvCs with this, hopefully.

Otherwise, we get what in September, lane changing on freeways? Not compelling. At all.

What *would* be compelling is the utilization of 10cm GPS for stop light reaction (Mobileye already showed that stop sign reaction was possible almost 2 years ago now during the staged 2016 video) and for what I’ll call Smart Summon.

I don’t know that the SoC alone (nice that they’re ahead of initial forecasts/schedule for that) facilitates 10cm GPS usage; if it does, Tesla will hit at least a ground rule double out of the gate next Spring, whereas if they just realize a parlor trick or two in September, it’s barely a base on (a lack of) balls.

And go figure - 6 months from August/Sept is Feb/Mar. 2019 is going to be exciting.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Confused. Are you joking? Was there a tweet that deleted but then clarified? Anyway, if there is a tweet that could be helpful please post a link or at least cut/paste the actual tweet. Thanks.

Not joking. He deleted the initial tweet saying 3 months and the tweeted again saying same timeline as the hardware. Link to the current one is here(obvs, can’t link to the deleted one):
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Otherwise, we get what in September, lane changing on freeways?

From the earnings call, we get auto freeway->freeway in September, with an improved handing over of control to the driver(I forget who said this, but it notably wasn't Musk). From the description, it at least sounds like level 3 autonomy on freeway.