VIN Assignment

[Waiting4M3]

Just idle speculation here....

If it is agreed that Tesla had produced (1550 + 860 in transit) 2410 Model 3's as of 31 Dec 2017 and 42xx (let's say 4250) is being built "now" (day 16 of January), that works out to (4250-2410 equals) 1846 units produced in (16/7) 2.29 weeks....

....equals a weekly build rate of 806 units.....still less than 1000 a week......

Again, just idle speculation.....

I would subtract 500 from the max VIN to use as an estimate of cumulative produced cars. My hypothesis is that Tesla produces in batch of 1000 VINs in the M3 production line, and randomize the order within the 1000 VINs. So at any time, the max VIN coming out of the end of the line could be ~500 higher than the mid point of that 1000 VINs, which is a closer estimate of the actual cumulative produced cars.

Using this method, this gives us ~1350 M3 produced in 2018, 16 days so far, which is average of 600/wk. This roughly matches a few of the models including mine that puts Q1 M3 production some where between 8-15k. I expect Tesla to slowly inch from ~500/wk at the beginning of Jan to ~1500/wk by the end of March, and will push to do a burst rate of 2500/wk at the end of March for PR purpose. Overall in Q1 I expect them to produce 13k M3.

 

[elasalle]

This might be the more appropriate thread.

initially posted in East Coast timing (see some of VINs listed here)

If Model 3 VINs is the result page for the vinbot, then it looks like a lot of vins posted here in TMC do not show up there? There was one VIN like in 40XX with pic posted here a few days back, and it also did not show up there?

Anyone know how the VIN bots work and what domains/threads it processes?

 

[TEG]

I think that is VINs that were "pre-registered" as intended to be produced. Which is different from actual VINs assigned to customers.

I think they found some way to scan some recall database where manufacturers report what VINs that they are planning to make soon.

 

[navguy12]

Anyone know how the VIN bots work and what domains/threads it processes?

I'm of the conclusion that the vinbot is not working as it should. I posted a vin of 4743 (I think) back as a Reddit thread and had the folks who replied also do the !vinbot thing. No luck.

 

[Paul Carter]

I'm of the conclusion that the vinbot is not working as it should. I posted a vin of 4743 (I think) back as a Reddit thread and had the folks who replied also do the !vinbot thing. No luck.

Yea see the same. I've started coding my own bot.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Hoping to see vin 5xxx starting next week to confirm 1k/week production rate. So far so good with 4xxx vins last and this week.

 

[sreams]

Hoping to see vin 5xxx starting next week to confirm 1k/week production rate. So far so good with 4xxx vins last and this week.

I spoke with an employee at the Tesla store in Rocklin yesterday. While I don't have a pic to confirm, he did say the highest VIN he saw among the 50 or so Model 3s on the lot was in the low 5000s.

 

[Paul Carter]

Yea see the same. I've started coding my own bot.

https://model3tracker.info/vinbot.php Good sign I picked this up. @Zaxxon

 

[ploon94]

Ordered 5 Jan. Got VIN a couple hours ago. Wasn't there yesterday. 42XX No call for delivery yet....I've heard they have a bunch on the lot in Decatur. I may drive by later and see which VINs they have on site.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Ordered 5 Jan. Got VIN a couple hours ago. Wasn't there yesterday. 42XX No call for delivery yet....I've heard they have a bunch on the lot in Decatur. I may drive by later and see which VINs they have on site.

do it!

 

[Msjulie]

You should put yourself in the sheet!

Model 3 Invites

I tried but the page is really unresponsive for some reason, even got the browser wanna-kill-this-slow-script warning..

 

[FinrodNV]

Ordered 5 Jan. Got VIN a couple hours ago. Wasn't there yesterday. 42XX No call for delivery yet....I've heard they have a bunch on the lot in Decatur. I may drive by later and see which VINs they have on site.

Feeling slightly jealous, ordered mine on Jan 4 and no VIN yet...

 

[ploon94]

Feeling slightly jealous, ordered mine on Jan 4 and no VIN yet...

I can relate. I saw others getting their VINs much faster. Hang in there.

 

[suwaneedad]

Ordered 5 Jan. Got VIN a couple hours ago. Wasn't there yesterday. 42XX No call for delivery yet....I've heard they have a bunch on the lot in Decatur. I may drive by later and see which VINs they have on site.

When you're there, if there's a midnight silver w/ Aero's and EAP I'd be happy to come by and take it off their hands. I can be there in 30 minutes.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

When you're there, if there's a midnight silver w/ Aero's and EAP I'd be happy to come by and take it off their hands. I can be there in 30 minutes.

30 minutes away? I'll be there in 10.

 

[HG Wells]

When I was there Saturday (January 13) their were three midnight silver cars and I think one had aero's.
Decatur GA. SEE PHOTO in Pictures of production Model 3s
Entry 4006

 

[chojn1]

From all the self reported VINs we received on the spreadsheet so far, we were able to plot this:

From that curve we were then able to extrapolate these estimates:

These predictions are only as good as the quantity and accuracy of the VINs we receive. So if you have a VIN and want to share, please post on the spreadsheet.

Thanks,
CJ

 

[bstronger]

I can relate. I saw others getting their VINs much faster. Hang in there.

I must have been bad. Configured Dec 11 and no VIN five weeks later. Is this a record?
Do I win anything? Brian

 

[Waiting4M3]

From all the self reported VINs we received on the spreadsheet so far, we were able to plot this:

View attachment 274360

From that curve we were then able to extrapolate these estimates:

View attachment 274361

These predictions are only as good as the quantity and accuracy of the VINs we receive. So if you have a VIN and want to share, please post on the spreadsheet.

Thanks,
CJ

Nice chart. Could you elaborate on how you arrived at 2018 delivery so far at 1062 cars? Looking on the chart, the red curve crosses the end of 2017 at ~2500, and the end of the curve in the middle of Jan 2018 seems a little shy of 3500, wouldn't that suggest 2018 delivery so far is a little shy of 1000?

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

From all the self reported VINs we received on the spreadsheet so far, we were able to plot this:

View attachment 274360

From that curve we were then able to extrapolate these estimates:

View attachment 274361

These predictions are only as good as the quantity and accuracy of the VINs we receive. So if you have a VIN and want to share, please post on the spreadsheet.

Thanks,
CJ

You're missing someone posting vin 47xx.