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Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by bswn1, Dec 1, 2017.
I caught it after the fact, I mistakenly typed 59xx when I should have typed 49xx
p.s. the number nerd in my is REALLY hoping to get VIN 10000 for my Pearl White Multi-Coat/19" Sport Wheels Model 3
I figure there are 1,000-1,500 people who have White/19" Sport configuration order entered since the last batch of these were assigned, so maybe the White/Sport VINs will straddle that 99xx - 100xx mark and I have a very slim chance of getting VIN 10000.
They also appear to be sending out VIN assignments to buyers (i.e. when your VIN gets assigned to your Tesla account) in rough groupings by delivery location. Sort by VIN assignment date, then Delivery Location and you will see a pattern emerge. There are 6-7 Teslas per car carrier, which match how they are lined up in the parking lot below. So, when they have enough Teslas to fill a car carrier headed to a particular destination (any combo of Model 3, X, S) they start pulling them from the produced batch of cars, line them up in this area of the lot below, load them onto a car carrier, send them on their way, then notify buyers of their VIN assignment. Buyers appear to be notified of their VIN assignments as a batch of cars is already in transit to your location. This matches up to a lot of reports of calls from Delivery Specialists who told buyers "your Model 3 is already on the train" or "already in transit".
This level of detail was something I was going to dig into, so thanks for doing this!
Sucks for me though with my 2/15 - white - aero order and no VIN. Any data to suggest how quickly Tesla gets through each of the 12 combinations?
How about they just communicate? Say hey guess what, here is your VIN, we are trying to get east coasters first as the travel time is longer. Then yours will be in transit on this day unless you just wanna come pick it up.
Instead we get: I dont know, maybe something will happen in the next 3-6 weeks, but really I dont know.
It has varied widely because of production slowdowns and gaps over the last few weeks. What I think should give us all confidence is that Tesla will likely work through as many cars/color combinations in the next 3 weeks as their factory can handle in order to pad Q1 numbers.
I feel confident in saying that anyone who configured in the month of February will hear something about their car, if not actually take delivery (more than not is my guess), before the end of March. All speculation, of course, and barring any setbacks or problems, but I think the short answer to your question is: in a sorter span going forward than has been the case in the past.
With production ramping up, there's no way to really predict that with the limited data we have because only the most recent VIN assignments would be relevant to current production rates. Are they doing 1,000 of one color/wheel combo at a time (over multiple days)? More? Less? The sequences seem to suggest a range between 500-2,000 of any given combo are run at one time. If they are nearing the 2,500 per week goal for Q1, then a run of 1000 of one color/wheel combo would take 3 days. Let's say they make more of some popular color/wheel combos and less of the others but the average of the 12 combinations is 1000. If they are hitting 2,500 per week now, then it would take almost 5 weeks to get through the cycle of 12 combinations. This somewhat matches how long some of the people who are still waiting on White/Sport and Black/Aero combos have been waiting. I bet they are getting pretty darn close to 2,500/week since their factory reset to make that small batch of Dual Motor VINs.
Keep in mind that even after your Color/Wheel combo is built, you likely then have to wait for them to have enough Model 3/S/X orders to group and ship to your location.
The reason they do not communicate the VIN could be one of two things :
Marketing and Buzz in the media
Not an automated system. I never got a configuration email. Just refreshed, configured and got VIN after 3 weeks
I feel they are overwhelmed with their production at scale woes. I am sure we all understand it is not an easy task for such a young car company.
Having said that, they will try and get orders fulfilled by the end of this month for earnings call. NV, CA, OR, WA are all lot quicker to deliver compared to the East Coast. Set your expectations for end of March and be surprised if it is a week earlier.
Just got VINned for Midnight Silver with aeros: 84XX.
And my VIN notification of early this week was for 67XX for Midnight Silver / Aero wheels, suggesting the cycle through all the colors/ wheels combinations is about 1500-1600 cars.
So, between Monday and Thursday of this week, they made 1500-1600 cars?
I think it's an upper bound, but not a lower one. Just because each color/wheel combo is assigned a VIN range doesn't guarantee (at least to me) that each batch of identical configurations will be as large as their assigned VIN range, or that they always produce batches in VIN order.
Furthermore, a 67XX VIN assignment this week does not indicate that the car was manufactured recently; it could have been parked for a while awaiting the next appropriate car carrier.
They gain nothing by providing more information. Are you going to buy more if they do? If they are wrong they have one pissed off customer who complains and wastes their time Plus, it isn't worth their time to reach out to those that don't have cars yet. I have no idea how many ISA they have but if production is ramping up, they have a lot of calls to make to get the purchase completed. Sure we'd love to know my place in line but if you had you VIN assigned and are trying to finish your transaction do you want an ISA trying to come up with an estimate for someone who doesn't have a VIN so they won't be anxious or do you want them to finish your transaction? There is some waste as people call to ask status but it is just easier to read off the script...
Having said all that, I free your pain. I had a 2nd Generation Prius and had to wait a long time as well even though I had signed up super early. My cross to bear as someone who wants a cutting edge car. Hopefully this will be my last time to have to do this.
Are there any folks that configured on 2/14 or before that haven't received their red/aero VIN? Looking to see if 2/22 Configs will be the next to get red/aeros.
From the spreadsheet, we have only seen Blue and Silver aero VINs from the 2/22 or after group. I guess all existing red/aeros are spoken for and we are waiting on a new production batch (>10K). Seems there is about 7-10 more days before we are in jeopardy of missing end of quarter deliveries. I have to believe the Tesla is going to try hard to deliver all 2/22 invites (at least that gives me something to hope for).
But should be today or tomorrow. Crossing my fingers
I predict and 88XX or 89XX for you TODAY
Just FYI, I know of one 2/22 ordered Silver 19" Sport that has been issued a VIN (not in the spreadsheet).
2/14, Red, Sport no VIN here. Not exactly what you are asking for though. When I went through the spreadsheet last night I think about 50% of 2/14 had VINs.
Thanks. There are a bunch (9) silver configs with a mix of wheels on the spreadsheet since the 3/7 VINapalooza.
Another interesting thing from VINapalooza is that this week tops the previous weekly VIN assignment record of 48 during the week of 1/28 and this week isn't over yet.
I hope i wasn't left out =/
Ordered 2/22 midnight silver w/ aero yet still have the RN number. Anyone else w/ midnight sliver who hasn't gotten a vin?
Looks like you are in the same boat as I am. According to the spreadsheet, there have been no 2/22 non-owner configurations that have been assigned VINs for Midnight Silver/aero configs. I feel you pain.
Just keep reloading your mytesla page.