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VIN needed to hit 35,000 MS produced in 2014

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by joefee, Oct 6, 2014.

  1. joefee

    joefee Over 2 Million TMC page views

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    We have already seen VIN 57,900.

    Let the data-based educated guesses begin...I say 60,587 (that is 3,110 produced for 2012; 22,477 for 2013; and 35,000 for 2014). That seems doable by the end of the year (if the Q4 ramp holds up) or am I missing something?:confused:
     
  2. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    You may have missed Q3 of last year when it was firmly debunked that you cannot Vin count. Sorry... If 57900 has been delivered then that means we will at least see Vin 70k before the end of the quarter. Maybe something higher depending on how they sequence the VINs
     
  3. joefee

    joefee Over 2 Million TMC page views

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    Do you have a link ... I did not see that....thanks.
     
  4. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    Q3 2013 results - projections and expectations

    Here is the thread that was discussing all of that, you will see people anticipating something like 6,600 cars delivered and then their dreams crushed when they only deliveried 5,500 (which was actually still a minor beat on their guidance...)
     
  5. StapleGun

    StapleGun Member

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    chickensevil is right. While you can VIN count for an incredibly rough estimate of production, there are far too many unknown variables nowadays to make it a worthwhile exercise.
     
  6. joefee

    joefee Over 2 Million TMC page views

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    Thanks for the comments...

    I looked at the 2013 thread but I'm not deterred from using VIN velocity as part of my TSLA stock picking analysis :wink:
     
  7. Bgarret

    Bgarret Model S ownin' Michigan scofflaw

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    I think we need to step away a little bit from VINs are everything or VIN counting is fatally flawed. The analogy I would use is a river. In 2013, Tesla was young, the river was narrow and shallow (and only in 1 country) and VINs were a good measurement of the river's flow. In the fall of 2014, the river has many tributaries (N. America, Europe, Asia) that flow at different rates and at different times - but to joefee's point (and MichiganModels point - hey Joel) if we are watching the river on November 1st and bouy #35,000 floats by, there is a good chance she and all her friends will find a home before Jan 1, 2015. If it floats by on December 1st, all it's friends better be safe in Europe and Chinese ports and 35k better be for some schlub in Palo Alto or we ain't gonna make it.

    Improve upon this this at your leisure.
     
  8. Joel

    Joel Active Member

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    #8 Joel, Oct 7, 2014
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2014
    Bgarret is correct. Like everything in life the answer lies somewhere in the middle. VINs do not tell the full story nor should we not take note.

    Joe Fee is also correct. Everyone should pay attention to VINs (and production numbers) Tesla reports each quarter.

    For those of you scoring at home, These are the quarterly numbers:

    Quarter Production Sales
    2012-Q3 350 250 - http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3422874134x0x611344/42cb80fa-6f64-4e48-93ff-2da29de21acc/Q3%202012%20Shareholder%20Letter%20Final.pdf
    2012-Q4 2,750 2,400 - http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3422874134x0x637040/4e3260f0-b711-47df-9c9e-16a8dda99a19/Q4'12%20SHL%20022013%20final.pdf
    2013-Q1 5,000 4,900 - http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3422874134x0x661989/ee71d11b-3563-489c-9471-9319fd963626/Q1%2013%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf
    2013-Q2 5,500 5,150 - http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3422874134x0x682962/f9e27702-90ed-4516-a16e-dc720c411089/Q2'13%20Tesla%20Motors%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf
    2013-Q3 6,600 5,500 - http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3422874134x0x703566/873a40e5-e798-4956-878f-47a19286d256/Tesla%20Q3'13%20Shareholder%20Letter%20final.pdf
    2013-Q4 7,200 6,892 - http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3422874134x0x727013/9885dd26-2e82-4052-b171-3685fd8150b3/Q4'13%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf
    2014-Q1 7,535 6,457 - http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3422874134x0x752463/4d500edc-fd71-4b5b-8b60-542f73d9c64e/Q1'14%20Shareholder%20Letter%20final.pdf
    2014-Q2 8,763 7,579 - http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/3422874134x0x772849/0cdad2cf-0497-41a3-ad2a-788f57412777/Tesla%20Q2'14%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf
    2014-Q3 9,000 7,800* Guidance Given at Earnings Call
    2014-Q4 12,000 13,164* Guidance Given at Earnings Call

    Once Tesla assigns VIN 60,092, Tesla manufactured enough units for 35,000 Model S that can (and need) to be delivered to meet 2014 guidance. I believe Tesla has assigned VINs in the 59,600 (if not 60,000). So, if Tesla sold (and delivered) every Model S that is currently available today, they will meet 2014 guidance.

    Based on VINs and production, I believe Tesla hit their Q3 guidance and will hit their Q4 (2014) guidance. How Wall Street responds is another story.
     
  9. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    Keep in mind that there is always an unknown float of test and loaner cars that may or may not be sold within 3 months of being built. And with over 200 stores and service centers this isn't a tiny number.
     
  10. StapleGun

    StapleGun Member

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    There also appears to be VIN's that never got built (possibly from cancelled or delayed orders). At this point that number could be in the tens or in the thousands, nobody really knows. Additionally the cars are not always produced sequentially, that is VIN 60000 might be produced while VIN 57000 has not.

    In my experience guidance from Tesla and reports from the factory floor seem to be a much better indicator of production numbers. In fact, if what I calculated from VIN's contradicted the other two indicators then I would have to assume that my VIN calculations were flawed.
     
  11. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    I have said it in another thread, but ever since the beginning they have never delivered VINs in sequence order. If you look at the beginnings of the Delivery Tracker thread you will see them delivering VINs in the 80s to people while someone else had VIN 40 and they were frustrated at why they hadn't been allowed to take delivery yet.
     
  12. Joel

    Joel Active Member

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    You are both correct. However, I am pointing out that deliveries and production is best viewed on an annual basis:

    The sum of the publically disclosed sales and the Q3 & Q4 projections required to meet 35,000 this year (7,800 and 13,164, respectively) is 60,092. The highest assigned VIN on TMC and TM.com is 59,600.

    Tracking highest VINs | Forums | Tesla Motors
     

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