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Virgin Galactic

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I saw a pretty cool ship go above the Karman line (well the US version of the Karman line) and I was happy. A few lucky/wealthy/connected folks went to space in it, and that had to be amazing and potentially life-changing. Like many of you, I am a SpaceX-fanboy but I do recognize that engineering achievements I can probably never fully understand were overcome to make this a reality. And that is where credit is definitely due: the engineers are the rockstars of today, and Virgin clearly has some bad-ass ones.

I do think that it was quite awkward for Chris Hadfield to talk about how one's astronaut wings represent the culmination of a lifetime of effort. Am sure that is how he has referred to them for all of his rather incredible life. But now, the era we just entered will have more and more folks with less than a lifetime of effort achieve this. I'm ok with that. It's happened before, see: flying in airplanes.
 
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I saw a pretty cool ship go above the Karman line (well the US version of the Karman line) and I was happy. A few lucky/wealthy/connected folks went to space in it, and that had to be amazing and potentially life-changing. Like many of you, I am a SpaceX-fanboy but I do recognize that engineering achievements I can probably never fully understand were overcome to make this a reality. And that is where credit is definitely due: the engineers are the rockstars of today, and Virgin clearly has some bad-ass ones.

For me, it was a Rube Goldberg space machine.

I don’t really see it having any lasting commercial appeal or engineering/scientific impact.

I guess the feather landing aparatus is a little interesting... but I don’t think any space craft operating in orbit will be able to use it.

More akin to the concord jet than the 737.
 
More akin to the concord jet than the 737.

That’s actually a great analogy.

The Concorde was a revolutionary, overt feat of engineering that was an aspirational, ahead-of-it’s-time vision of what air travel could be. It was uniquely recognizable, had a long service life, and certain routes were actually profitable.

The 737 is the Honda Odyssey of commercial
Aircraft. It’s pretty cheap and reliable, can haul a decent amount of stuff, is pretty popular with kids and parents alike, and gets clever new evolutionary tweaks every few years. Regardless the subjective/emotional response many have toward it and other minivans, Its hard to make any objectively disparaging comments.
 
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This is a devastating critique of VG's safety procedures that just came out:

With this hand flown rocket ship it's just a matter of time. These pilots were faced with having to make quick decisions, best left for automation. It won't be the last time.
I've sooo wanted to short VG stock. I've come around to conclude that attempting to profit at the expense of human life is totally unethical.
 
With this hand flown rocket ship it's just a matter of time. These pilots were faced with having to make quick decisions, best left for automation. It won't be the last time.
I've sooo wanted to short VG stock. I've come around to conclude that attempting to profit at the expense of human life is totally unethical.

I agree. Also as a rule, I never short stocks. The ability of the market to continue to prop up turkeys is beyond amazing.
 
Despite Branson’s “vision”, Virgin Galactic (a strikingly grandiose name) is so far behind schedule, and has spent so much money, that I do not see a promising future for it. See https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/02/virgin-galactic-has-lost-1-billion-during-the-last-two-years/

Quote: “During the final quarter of 2021, Virgin Galactic reported revenue of $141,000 and a net loss of $80 million. The cumulative results were even more sobering. According to the publicly traded company's consolidated statements, Virgin Galactic has now lost $1 billion during the last two years… even at three flights a month, Virgin Galactic would certainly lose a significant amount of money. Going off of its most recent financial statement, Virgin Galactic's expenses are about $80 million a quarter. At $450,000 a seat—making the naive assumption of pure profit off of every customer, on every full flight—the company would require 30 full flights a quarter, or 10 flights a month, just to break even.”

The company has built a very costly and high maintenance launch system and vehicle that relies on humans in the cockpit to fly successfully. Not a 21st century approach.

Now the company says it is developing a new “Delta class” vehicle that will be capable of a higher launch rate than the current vehicle. So it continues to spend heavily while barely flying at all. The flight cadence for the past 3 years is barely 1 mission per year.

How much longer can that go on?
 
Major league pump & dump scam. Over a decade between the triumph of SpaceShipOne and Two and now Two is in for a major overhaul before beginning operational service if ever. They have zero in house technology applicable to the orbital future they tout.
I think "pump and dump" is probably a little too harsh. Virgin Orbit has had a couple successful missions with their Launcher One and I think they're legit trying for success. The small launch market is pretty tough these days, though, with a few other newcomers and SpaceX doing rideshares. (Rocket Lab is developing the Neutron at least partially in response to SpaceX eating into their Electron business.)

As for Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo and potential later vehicles, I think the simple fact is that Burt Rutan's SpaceShipOne design just doesn't scale up very well. It's a difficult problem from propulsion (which took three lives and injured three others, near a test stand in 2007) to operation of the "feather" system (that cost the life of a pilot and injured another in 2014). Going up and down in a capsule seems much simpler by comparison.
 
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In his latest newsletter Eric Berger included the link below. It's a recent story that analyzes the fatal 2014 SpaceShipTwo crash. A detailed, sobering account of events. A fascinating read, plan at least 15 minutes.
 
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