I completely agree with your posts concerning Tesla's FSD and EAP development and driver responsibility. I think a lot of tesla fans will be surprised when they discover that a fully feature complete EAP is still simply a lane following and adaptive cruise control system that just replaced its reliance from ultrasonic to cameras for lane changing.
Sure EAP will make lane changes by it self when the lanes are completely empty, which is quite easy. it won't however negotiate lane changes in tight slow moving situations. Its nothing else but a replacement of reliance on ultrasonic for performing lane changes to cameras.
Agreed. I don't remember who said it and what their source was, but there was talk that EAP really is basically about fulfilling the publicly stated goals of AP1 in the end. A bit like each iteration of P85DL, P90DL and P100D have been fulfilling missed promises on P85D and then subsequent Performance versions that were not meeting their publicly stated specs. This seems to be the Tesla way: give a bit (or a lot) too outrageous specs to the public and once you are unable to fulfill them, release an upgraded product that (perhaps) does and move the conversation onwards in that manner.
So in that sense I think we can expect to EAP to eventually include, once they can reach AP1 parity first, basically that ramp-to-ramp motorway driving system, with front cameras that can read traffic signs and perhaps lights and with blind-spot detection that eventually will actuall work. Finally, it will also allow you to summon your car "to the curb" as AP1 once was said to do, at least in some relatively simple (but more complex than AP1) scenarios. A few of these improvements I expect will still roll out to AP1 as well, namely some of the ramp-to-ramp stuff, but for some things Tesla said AP1 would do it simply lacks the sensors/cameras to do reliably.
This is also why I am pretty certain FSD on AP2 will meet the same fate. Eventually AP3 hardware will come along to fulfill the promises FSD on AP2 can not meet (e.g. the car picking you up from another city) and the conversation moves forwards. Elon mentioned 12-18 months at some point. So perhaps in the second half of 2018, once Model 3 ramp-up is going well, they will introduce additional hardware capabilities and AP2 becomes a limited subset of that system. There is of course still the chance that Tesla may already introduce some changes in Q3/2017 that Model 3 gets from the start and Model S/X at the same time, but I guess the 12-18 months doesn't fit that speculation.
I see Autopilot as a limited L2 in the same sense that I see Audi L3 as a limited L3 (because of its 37 MPH and lead car requirement).
All signs point to GM supercruise being the first true L2 system and Nissan being the first true L3 system.
Right now we have Tesla AP1 and Volvo Pilot Assist 2 at the same level and Mercedes Drive Pilot 4.5 joining them later in the year.
Good points, though I'd say every system seen so far is limited in some fashion and what we are seeing there is just continued improvements at making those limitations less. For me the distinction between Level 1 and 2 simply is, can I take hands off for reasonable periods of time. Level 3, can I take eyes off for same. Level 4, can I take a nap. Level 5, could the car ship without a steering wheel.
I fully expect that in all these instances the driver's aid or self-driving may refuse to initiate or may stop working in some circumstances, which may change from car to car. But it has to have reasonable functionality given its level and graceful fallback given its level. For example, an AP2 Tesla Level 4 car (assuming it might get there one day) could refuse to drive in some blizzard where its cameras can't see sufficiently (a limitation I can't see the hardware being able to get around as it is), but it can't for example just disengage when I'm taking that nap were that blizzard to occour enroute - it should be reasonably able to navigate to a safe place and stop before doing so.
For example the Audi self-driving system, as someone who has followed the company for many years now, they have been developing and miniaturizing the hardware and maturing the software for a better part of a decade now (in public, perhaps much longer in private). It has been a completely separate development from their basic driver's aids that have been shipping in the meanwhile (maybe a bit like Tesla's separate EAP and FSD codebases but been going on for much longer). For me the first car to ship with this hardware and software is a very big deal, because I know its background.
What that big deal means, Audi has simply selected a subset of that already existing functionality they feel they can take 100% responsibility for. They have said they are very conservative about it, which is basically the opposite of how Tesla goes about Autopilot. Their ability to ramp this up, though, is - I expect - quite dramatic. It wouldn't surprise me if Audi already had a Level 5 capable prototype and by that mean something that in an extremely progressive company might already be shipping to customers, not just something you could make a, say, coast-to-coast demo with.
