TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

Wait for 2.0 or buy now

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Jordan0301, Jul 18, 2016.

  1. Jordan0301

    Jordan0301 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2016
    Messages:
    16
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    Looking to order my first Model S, but with AP2.0 looming, I don't know whether to pull the trigger this week or wait months and possibly over a year for 2.0.

    Thoughts? It's a lot of money to miss something cool.
     
  2. doctorwho

    doctorwho Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2014
    Messages:
    774
    Location:
    Eurobin, Victoria. Australia
    Whatever you'll buy will be replaced by improved hardware within a few years. Its a lot like buying a computer, it isn't long before its replaced by a newer model so if you're always waiting for the latest and greatest you'll always be waiting. Just buy it and enjoy it
     
    • Like x 3
  3. Xenius

    Xenius Member

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2015
    Messages:
    402
    Location:
    Havertown, PA
    I placed my order in late June knowing full well something, somewhere better will come out. That's just technology. Many current owners will say "all the time you wait, is time you're NOT driving the best car in the world".

    Do you not buy computers because a faster one might come out?
    Do you not buy phones because a better one might come out?

    Etc, etc.

    Do it! Join me in this agonizing, sleep-losing wait!
     
    • Like x 3
  4. bint2k

    bint2k Member

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2011
    Messages:
    130
    Location:
    Toronto, ON
    I'd wait a few months at this point
     
    • Like x 3
    • Dislike x 1
  5. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2014
    Messages:
    1,463
    Location:
    Ontario, Canada
    Meh. I don't see that AP 2.0 is going to be a deal breaker. AP 1.0 will take you down the highway very comfortably and (in my experience) competently. The other AP features... summon, stop sign/light recognition, etc... and so-on I don't see to be as significant.

    It's a question of what's important to you.
     
    • Like x 3
  6. WannabeOwner

    WannabeOwner Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2015
    Messages:
    715
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Did I miss something? or it the date unknown - could be tomorrow, might be a year or more away ...
     
  7. Reeler

    Reeler 6 Years of Pure EV

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2015
    Messages:
    645
    Wait at least for the Gigafactory livecast to see if there is a "one more thing . . . " comment about AP 2.0.
     
    • Like x 1
  8. sillydriver

    sillydriver Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2014
    Messages:
    542
    Location:
    Middleburg, va
    If you have a reason to believe the new sensors are about to ship then wait. I have no good information. If I had to guess, I would guess they will ship early next year, to be ahead of the launch of M3.
     
  9. xG35

    xG35 Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2016
    Messages:
    115
    Location:
    Canada
    The problem with Tesla ordering system is.. You will never know when the new tech is coming.. even if you waited and waited, you can still miss it by a day.

    Thats why you always lease a tesla!
     
  10. scott jones

    scott jones Member

    Joined:
    Mar 27, 2014
    Messages:
    211
    Location:
    Indiana, USA
    Because it'll need new hardware, I'd wait. I believe the value of AP 1.0 cars will drop, as they did quickly on non awd / non auto pilot cars. Those things couldn't be added on, like a software update. Nor will 2.0 stuff be able to be added on, if it means hardware changes, new placements, cameras, holes etc.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Dislike x 1
  11. sillydriver

    sillydriver Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2014
    Messages:
    542
    Location:
    Middleburg, va
    #11 sillydriver, Jul 18, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2016
    The comment I made a couple posts upthread isn't really a good response. I'm going to share my own thought process in buying the P85DL that I own, a car I'm very happy with.

    I became strongly aware of/interested in Teslas in spring 2014. At that point, the MS had been shipping for a while with no major changes in performance, capabilities or appearance. I heard rumors (can't recall the source or exact details) of performance-oriented four-wheel drive on the way. I decided to hold off until the day after Tesla next announced some major improvement: not necessarily FWD, but whatever it was, I expected I would know it when I saw it and then pull the trigger. I also held off test driving the MS in Spring of '14 because I know myself and I knew that if I drove it and liked it I would order it on the spot (this is why I've never let myself step inside a Lamborghini or McLaren dealership). So in autumn '14 the P85D was announced, combining both performance and AP. I knew it was the upgrade that I was looking for and immediately ordered the car.

    As it turned out, production of next generation seats didn't meet demand, and my P85D was going to be delivered without them. I did not like the idea of getting a half-baked car that needed remedial surgery, so I cancelled the order for December, even though the car was in production, and then placed a new order for March. Tesla didn't like it but complied. I also figured this would get the P85D further down the experience curve for the sake of production quality. I took the car in early March '15. It's great and has had no quality problems, so I'm glad I waited.

    So if I didn't own a Tesla and was interested in getting one, I would do the same thing. By late this year it will have been two years since the big MS upgrade related to the introduction of the P85D and AP1.0. I would wait to see what the company offers that's new and place my order the day after they introduce a worthwhile upgrade, being comfortable that I would know it when I saw it.

    The one additional factor -- and I'm sad to say this since I'm a huge fan of the car -- is that I am a little concerned about the company. Cash flow is not great to say the least, and Elon is making things worse by buying Solar City. Now we have the AP crash, which most of us (including me) believe is overblown. The problem is that Tesla does no advertising and very little marketing and selling. My fear is that the word-of-mouth that has driven rapid growth may be disrupted by FUD surrounding the crash, so sales may negatively surprise during the next couple quarters. That would bring about further financial stress. Also, Tesla's service lead-time and service experience is deteriorating, probably because of MX issues. So I would keep that in mind as I watched and waited for the product upgrade that would lead me to pull the trigger and order.
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Informative x 1
  12. Jtrader

    Jtrader Member

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2015
    Messages:
    45
    Location:
    KY
    I waited for a year, but couldn't wait any more so I leased. I figured something new would be out by the time my lease expires in 2018 and I'll come out better than trading in, especially considering the tax advantages of leasing through my business.
     
    • Like x 1
    • Love x 1
  13. Austin Powers

    Austin Powers Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2016
    Messages:
    197
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    I was in the same boat until yesterday. Elon tweeting multiple times yesterday about using a software solution to enhance the AP experience made me believe that their focus currently is not any hardware upgrades in the near future. I was ready to cancel my order until this new info came out. Now cannot wait to enjoy the new ride.
     
    • Like x 2
    • Love x 1
  14. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    Messages:
    3,003
    Location:
    Delaware
    The fact that Elon is on Twitter this week talking up how much room there is to improve the current cars suggests to me that a sensor upgrade isn't imminent.

    But I'm guessing, like everyone else. :)
     
    • Like x 3
  15. Zybd1201

    Zybd1201 Member

    Joined:
    May 30, 2016
    Messages:
    229
    Location:
    California
    I have reframed my thoughts on this a bit.

    I think the better question is "What functionality do you expect Autopilot 2.0 to bring?"

    If you are assuming that some time in the near future (6 months to a year) Tesla will turn on fully autonomous mode then, you should just buy now because that is very unlikely to happen.

    Otherwise, there may be some incremental improvements but they seem to be working very hard to make those improvements with the existing hardware.

    I am sure this is a question Tesla has asked itself. "We can add more sensors, cameras, lidar, etc. But, what functionality would we be passing on to the customer with that increased cost?" I suspect their answer is not enough at this point whether it is because they internally have not reach a comfort level with their own technological solutions or they are waiting for society and regulators to give the green light or their lawyers are holding them back, or all of the above, I don't know.

    What I do know is I was concerned about this a bit at first but I am not very happy I purchased my Tesla (even with some pain points).

    As the son of a Mother who's entire family (including 8 year old brother) were killed by a drunk driver and as someone hit by a drunk driver while leaving the hospital in December, and as someone who simply lives and drives in Florida ;-) I am as ready as anyone for safer roads and sustainable autonomous transportation is the answer. I just don't think it is coming soon enough to delay the purchase of an awesome car.
     
    • Like x 1
  16. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    Messages:
    3,003
    Location:
    Delaware
    What *I* really want most is autonomous lane change linked to Nav routing, plus 100% confidence on the freeway (I realize 100% confidence will take a while.)

    That'd let the car drive itself once you got to the freeway on road trips, and is in principle in reach of the sensor package on cars now I believe (including doing object recognition against the rear view camera which the historical architecture won't allow since the image is passed straight to the MCU display. Tesla could presumably change that at any time without us necessarily noticing.)
     
    • Like x 1
  17. No2DinosaurFuel

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2015
    Messages:
    778
    Location:
    San Diego, California
    Given that the AP 1.0 hardware is almost 2 years old by now, I would wait it out. It's like buying a iphone 6s right now on the cusp of the new iphone 7. You can get an iphone 6s now and enjoy an iphone, but given you are paying a high price for the phone, why not just wait a few months, especially if you current own another phone.

    Worst case, you waited a few months and nothing showed up. Sure you are not driving the car for a few months but it's not like you need a car right now anyways, assuming you have some wheels right now.
    Best case, there is AP 2.0 and you get what you are waiting for. Moreover, if you were content in getting the AP 1.0, I am sure tesla will lower the prices on those to make them appealing as they clear out stock on those vehicles.

    That being said, if everyone cases is different. IMO, if you can wait it out, wait it out. Better to be sure than live with regret.
     
    • Helpful x 1
    • Like x 1
    • Dislike x 1
  18. mkspeedr

    mkspeedr Member

    Joined:
    Jun 14, 2015
    Messages:
    245
    Location:
    Santa Clara, CA
    • Informative x 5
  19. Austin Powers

    Austin Powers Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2016
    Messages:
    197
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    • Like x 1
  20. Saghost

    Saghost Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2013
    Messages:
    3,003
    Location:
    Delaware

Share This Page