Wait for 82 kWh battery?

[Lionel Hutz]

Found a big thread on this in the TM3 forum as well with some interesting data.

Preliminary EPA Data for Model 3 AWD & Model 3 P 2021 Released

 

[mbdionio]

does it make sense to produce two different battery packs (82kWh and a non 82kWh) and send them through the production line?

 

[jcanoe]

does it make sense to produce two different battery packs (82kWh and a non 82kWh) and send them through the production line?

Maybe Tesla battery pack manufacturing is constrained in obtaining enough of the new cells while still receiving shipments of the older cells. Probably can't mix the different cells in the same battery pack. It makes sense to use the newer cells in the lower production volume 3P and YP vehicles until eventually supply catches up with orders for the LR vehicles.

 

[akballow]

Maybe Tesla battery pack manufacturing is constrained in obtaining enough of the new cells while still receiving shipments of the older cells. Probably can't mix the different cells in the same battery pack. It makes sense to use the newer cells in the lower production volume 3P and YP vehicles until eventually supply catches up with orders for the LR vehicles.

I just like to think they are giving those who paid for the P a little more love

 

[jcanoe]

I just like to think they are giving those who paid for the P a little more love

The Model Y Performance from the EPA test in January 2020 could have benefited from a little more love.

 

[GeorgeC1]

I suspect they are constrained by battery manufacturing capacity. Makes sense to keep both lines running if that is the case. They might not even care which battery goes into which cars and the better KW results on the performance might have simply been the luck of the draw. That would explain Tesla not touting a bigger battery and longer range. Once production is all the new cells they will certainly do so as the competition is heating up fast. The ID4 is looking really good in testing! Tesla will claim every mile of range they can.

 

[imola.zhp]

The accepted total capacity of the LR battery in the Model 3 and Model Y has been, before the upgrade, 78kWh. The 82kWh battery is a 5.1% increase. This would potentially increase the estimated range from 326 miles to ~343 miles (~17 additional miles.) When planning a trip where the charging options were limited, with the current LR battery you could lower your speed a bit and this would increase your driving range by 5%. Adding 5% capacity is definitely a good improvement but not a game changer.

~343 miles would put the heavier Model Y LR-AWD just ~10 miles short of its lighter Model 3 LR-AWD counterpart. According to google (take that with a grain of salt) the Y is nearly 10% heavier than the 3, 4416 vs 4031 respectively. Just some figures to keep in mind.

Prospective buyer of used car in 3 years from now will always think 82kWh is MUCH better and will be willing to pay 3-5k more then for 78kWh battery. But for you it will be the same price if you wait one more month

Your assuming 3 years from now neither car has seen any degradation, which is a big assumption.

82kWh on paper sounds great but in real world miles, we are probably looking at an extra 10 miles or less of highway range over the current 78kWh. I'd never drive down to the last few miles of remaining range before I stop to charge so for me, it's completely negligible. It maybe worth it to some x-country cannon baller to shave a few minutes of charging on their cross country race?

Yup, in the real world this will be very negligible.

Is there some actual information that the battery will be 82 kWh in a month? If there was concrete proof of that I might wait the month (even though I sold my only car and am now bumming my wife's ).
My SA said in October when I ordered I could take delivery down here in Orange County in December or March.

Your SA is thinking of the other models, S/X/3 that are exported. The demand for the Y is too great in North America, it is NOT being exported. You can take delivery any month you want next quarter. Model Y's for China and Europe will come from China until the plant in Germany is built. The Y we rejected was built in July (first month in the 3rd quarter) and we attempted delivery in August (the second month in the 3rd quarter) this nonsense about only taking delivery the last month of each quarter is getting old. Again, true for other lines, but not for the Y right now or for the foreseeable future. Its Tesla's cash cow right now.

Maybe Tesla battery pack manufacturing is constrained in obtaining enough of the new cells while still receiving shipments of the older cells. Probably can't mix the different cells in the same battery pack. It makes sense to use the newer cells in the lower production volume 3P and YP vehicles until eventually supply catches up with orders for the LR vehicles.

I suspect they are constrained by battery manufacturing capacity. Makes sense to keep both lines running if that is the case. They might not even care which battery goes into which cars and the better KW results on the performance might have simply been the luck of the draw. That would explain Tesla not touting a bigger battery and longer range. Once production is all the new cells they will certainly do so as the competition is heating up fast. The ID4 is looking really good in testing! Tesla will claim every mile of range they can.

I'm betting there are more than just two lines, who knows how many lines there are. When the new cells started in November it probably just started on one of X or XX number of lines and has slowly proliferated to other lines. Who knows how long it takes to change all of the lines over, could be several months or longer for all we know, perhaps it takes a full year? If so, the MY-LRAWD wont see a bump until the next 5% at the end of 2021. My guess is the range increase has already happened when we got the bump in November. Or, perhaps cars rolling out with the smaller packs have a smaller buffer at each end of the battery pack and when the bigger batteries come into play maybe they will have a larger buffer. If true, this would also keep the noise down from people that just purchased a Y within the last year. Pure speculation here, nothing to back this up.

EDIT: But I do recall recently a post on the FB group from an early MYP owner stating he never got the range bump and when he asked, he was told that if he didn't have it by now his car wouldn't get it. So perhaps that is why we see two EPA figures for the MYP but only one figure for the MY-LRAWD and perhaps why no MYP's were produced for several months.

 

[bobby g]

I searched for an early adapter but even Amazon doesn't have any left.

That's auto fill spelled it wrong

 

[MR_C]

Interesting that the 2021 model 3 LR AWD energy went down from the 2020 model 3 LR AWD but the range increased 30 miles. And the 2021 Y LR went down from 2020 and range increased by 10 miles.

Found a big thread on this in the TM3 forum as well with some interesting data.

Preliminary EPA Data for Model 3 AWD & Model 3 P 2021 Released

 

[mbdionio]

reduced weight with the single piece rear cast ?

 

[ElectricIAC]

Did a test drive today. The Tesla sales people were telling me that the new Model Ys have the 82kWh battery.

Wait, they were discouraging you from buying RIGHT NOW?

 

[HotIce]

I cancelled my first Model Y order because I wanted the new battery, center console and the new headlights. I realized I'll be waiting forever for the 'perfect' car because Tesla and Panasonic struck an agreement to increase battery efficiency every year. We're going to see another range hike next year with a bigger battery. Tesla will just keep updating these cars every couple of months. Get the car with the features that are most important to you and enjoy it now. You also get one year of free supercharging if you take delivery before the end of the year.

 

[ElectricIAC]

make it lifetime and we can chat.

 

[akballow]

Wait, they were discouraging you from buying RIGHT NOW?

Sounds like they are saying the current new ones have it.

 

[mbdionio]

there will never be a good time to buy as there will always be something better next year.

placed my order today. will try to keep away from these forums after getting the vehicle.

 

[akballow]

there will never be a good time to buy as there will always be something better next year.

placed my order today. will try to keep away from these forums after getting the vehicle.

Some new every month

 

[HotIce]

there will never be a good time to buy as there will always be something better next year.

placed my order today. will try to keep away from these forums after getting the vehicle.

Agreed.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I'm happy with my P3D, would consider a nice demo deal on a PYD though..maybe i'll reach out and see what my magicians can find.

 

[sgalla04]

BTG has confirmed his June 7 seater MY and a friend’s May 5 seater MY have the 82 kWh battery. Anyone know if this is confirmed for non-radar MYs or after a certain VIN?

 

[MatildaModelY]

BTG has confirmed his June 7 seater MY and a friend’s May 5 seater MY have the 82 kWh battery. Anyone know if this is confirmed for non-radar MYs or after a certain VIN?

I grabbed a new Model Y that popped up in inventory. VIN 211xxx non-radar. I'm very curious too about if this one I purchased (yet to pickup) has the 82kwh pack.