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wait for cheaper version?
- Thread starter Remus
- Start date
Three things that remain unknown:
Will the lobbying efforts happening as we speak be effective in extending the tax credit?
What is the actual true conversion rate of reservations to purchases?
Will Tesla actually sell a base model with no options in the next year?
I would wait until the next quarter to make a decision if I were in your shoes. More will be known.
I'm not clear on one aspect. If you defer, but later change your mind to ordering immediately, does that affect your position in the queue? I would call your Tesla SC and ask, and ask on the board as well.
Will the lobbying efforts happening as we speak be effective in extending the tax credit?
What is the actual true conversion rate of reservations to purchases?
Will Tesla actually sell a base model with no options in the next year?
I would wait until the next quarter to make a decision if I were in your shoes. More will be known.
I'm not clear on one aspect. If you defer, but later change your mind to ordering immediately, does that affect your position in the queue? I would call your Tesla SC and ask, and ask on the board as well.
It's *probable* that the SR version won't be around until next year. It's been stated that you can defer as long as you like. There are people with *Model X* reservations who haven't exercised them. Of course, now, that gives you no priority at all. And the same will be the case for a Model 3 rez five years from now. You can wait as long as you want. Asking questions of people at a Service Center may or may not get you a true answer.
So if you wait until next year, and if the 200K car is in July, as we expect, and SR cars are available next year (without PUP, to get to $35K? who knows), you will get the $3750 or $1875 tax credit (as that is what 2019 purchasers will get if we go to 200K in Quarter 3 2018).
So if you wait until next year, and if the 200K car is in July, as we expect, and SR cars are available next year (without PUP, to get to $35K? who knows), you will get the $3750 or $1875 tax credit (as that is what 2019 purchasers will get if we go to 200K in Quarter 3 2018).
azentropy
Member
Another kicker is that when SR ordering opens up I highly doubt it will open up to everyone at the same time (same for dual motor). My bet is there is going to be a priority list for that too that will gradually open up to the same groups in roughly the same order that we are going through now. So it might be "months" after the first people who get to order the SR version (current owners) until you would get to order yours.
azentropy
Member
Oh and BTW I'm in the same boat. I don't really need/want the LR version (nor do I want black interior), but I'm afraid if I don't go with it I might miss out on the full credit. But ordering hasn't even opened up for me yet.
True. But my question was 'does it affect queue position?'
Example: You get your invite Apr 1. You defer. In June, you decide you'll just go for it. Will it your order be logged further back due to exports and legacy buyers ordering their AWD variants? In all fairness, it would be nice if your order was kept in front, but I'm not sure that's what's going to happen. Foreign legacy owners could be put ahead of you, and US AWD legacy orders could also. So it deferring could possibly push you pretty far back, past the tax cutoff.
I wouldn't buy a car in order to maybe have a tax credit. Buy it because you want the car. I want the
standard battery
no premium interior
4 wheel drive.
I'll wait until whenever, tax credit or not. I've been waiting for this car since around 2004.
I'm betting that once you are allowed to configure there is no longer any sense of priority and it'll be first come first served. Meaning if a prior owner deferred configuring for a while and configured on June 2nd, that someone who configured on June 1st, regardless of when they reserved, or if they were an owner or now would have priority since they configured first. At that point things like production schedules, color and options batching and delivery location would have more affect than anything else.
I wouldn't worry about that. It was (is) an issue with first production when they were barely making any cars. When SR opens up that should be when the production is at 5k cars a week. So employee orders would be dealt with in a week and prior owners in a month tops in my opinion.
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
Think this is a classic examples of the demand levers that Tesla must consider when they want to keep their production going at full speed.
If production can meet demand, then adding more models available for purchase only makes the waiting line longer, but sells no more cars.
Due to the potential elimination or reduction of the Federal Tax Credit, lots of people want to get their cars delivered before ti runs out. They will place their orders and keep the production line humming.
After the elimination/reduction in the Tax Credit, the demand could slack, and Tesla would begin to introduce additional models to gain additional demand. These new models might be less profitable to Tesla, so they will be in no rush to bring them to market.
I am sure they would like to get their production line running as smoothly as possible with the consistant model they are currently making. Adding additional complications and developing new options only takes manpower and talent away from being available to work on the current bottle necks.
Adding different interiors, multiple battery configurations, all wheel drive, colors, performance options, suspensions, sound systems, etc are all huge undertakings when they are under the gun to pump out the volume.
While this all makes sense, it is uncomfortable for those waiting for just the configuration they desire. There is no hard time deadline for the Tax going away, as Tesla can get creative with where they deliver their cars. Lawmakers may even extend these credits to consumers as they still want to encourage electric vehicle use. Nobody knows for sure (maybe including Tesla) when each of the options will be ready for production. People are eager to get what they want, but also fear missing out on the Tax credit. They might also have another car coming off lease that need replacing, budget concerns, spouse issues, or just wanting to take their new Tesla on an upcoming family vacation.
This is nothing new for Tesla. They have dealt with it before. With the original Roadster they were also production constrained. People waiting a long time were eager. Then they released additional models, and the improvements brought in even more buyers.
With the Model S the offered a fully optioned Signature Model for people wanting to get the first production. Higher levels of options gave Tesla more profits to offset initial production costs and also got into the marketplace some of the finest examples of what an electric car could be. Then came slightly less optioned configurations, available in more colors, then they released much less expensive smaller battery/range models, and then ultra high performance models with blistering performance.
Same with Model X. First were fully equipped with few battery options. Then more seating configurations with the pedestal seating and finally the popular 5 seater with folding 2nd row seats providing a full flat floor and camping mode. Then even larger batteries with additional performance and range.
Now, history repeats itself with the model 3. From the ones I have seen on the street, and talking to excited and very satisfied initial owners, I believe that Tesla has another winner on their hands.
If production can meet demand, then adding more models available for purchase only makes the waiting line longer, but sells no more cars.
Due to the potential elimination or reduction of the Federal Tax Credit, lots of people want to get their cars delivered before ti runs out. They will place their orders and keep the production line humming.
After the elimination/reduction in the Tax Credit, the demand could slack, and Tesla would begin to introduce additional models to gain additional demand. These new models might be less profitable to Tesla, so they will be in no rush to bring them to market.
I am sure they would like to get their production line running as smoothly as possible with the consistant model they are currently making. Adding additional complications and developing new options only takes manpower and talent away from being available to work on the current bottle necks.
Adding different interiors, multiple battery configurations, all wheel drive, colors, performance options, suspensions, sound systems, etc are all huge undertakings when they are under the gun to pump out the volume.
While this all makes sense, it is uncomfortable for those waiting for just the configuration they desire. There is no hard time deadline for the Tax going away, as Tesla can get creative with where they deliver their cars. Lawmakers may even extend these credits to consumers as they still want to encourage electric vehicle use. Nobody knows for sure (maybe including Tesla) when each of the options will be ready for production. People are eager to get what they want, but also fear missing out on the Tax credit. They might also have another car coming off lease that need replacing, budget concerns, spouse issues, or just wanting to take their new Tesla on an upcoming family vacation.
This is nothing new for Tesla. They have dealt with it before. With the original Roadster they were also production constrained. People waiting a long time were eager. Then they released additional models, and the improvements brought in even more buyers.
With the Model S the offered a fully optioned Signature Model for people wanting to get the first production. Higher levels of options gave Tesla more profits to offset initial production costs and also got into the marketplace some of the finest examples of what an electric car could be. Then came slightly less optioned configurations, available in more colors, then they released much less expensive smaller battery/range models, and then ultra high performance models with blistering performance.
Same with Model X. First were fully equipped with few battery options. Then more seating configurations with the pedestal seating and finally the popular 5 seater with folding 2nd row seats providing a full flat floor and camping mode. Then even larger batteries with additional performance and range.
Now, history repeats itself with the model 3. From the ones I have seen on the street, and talking to excited and very satisfied initial owners, I believe that Tesla has another winner on their hands.
It is a really bad idea to assume you will have an opportunity to buy a $35k Model 3, with or without tax incentives.
Does Telsa reveal where there are wrt to the 200K delivery mark? I got my invite to configure, but not too keen on the LR version. I have other ICE car&SUV that meet my occasional LR needs.
What I really want:
- Model3 in Red
- PuP w/ White Interior
- Standard Range
- 18" wheels is okay
Hoping a longer wait will allow me to get the white interior and standard range, and still get the $7.5K tax credit.
I'm with you. But I want midnight silver, or maybe black, no interior upgrade, standard battery, 19" wheels, and all wheel drive. I'm hoping for an EPA rating of around 140 to 150 mpg(e) on the AWD standard battery.
roblab
Active Member
Not me. I've gone ahead and bought Teslas from near day one. Why wait??? Oh, yeah, you wanted cheap. Well, you missed out on five years (They started building in 2012) of great driving and spent money driving something else. Your decision. I got "stuck" with a larger battery, more range, two wheel drive first which never made any difference, and a fantastic minimalist interior which I loved.
In a couple more years or so, you may be offered everything you ever wanted. I'd rather drive.
I did this. I deferred initially to wait for AWD. Then my S was totaled so I needed a new car ASAP. So I configured my 3 after my deferral, but it was only about 2-3 weeks after I got my config email (so thake that for what you will). I configured on 12/21 and got a call that my car was ready for delivery on 12/27 (which was actually too early as I was out of town, so I rescheduled for Jan).
My sense of the whole thing was my place in line was not lost even though I deferred a few weeks before configuring which I was surprised about. It probably also depends on what you order. I apparently picked a config they had sitting in a parking lot down at the LA delivery center, so I basically had zero wait time.
I do not believe I got any "special" treatment because of the fact my S was crashed - Tesla still has the car in my account and thinks its fine even today. So as far as I can tell they don't know my car was totaled (no one ever contacted me from Tesla after my accident).
I don't know how this would play out with longer timelines - say several months between config email and actual order.
Hi Rob,
I'm not sure I had the money back in 2012 to buy a Model S. I do see your point about missing out on 5 years of driving without sending poison fumes into the air. I wish I'd bought a Prius 20 odd years ago, but I was waiting for the Blue Star. I didn't want to haul around the dead weight of a gas engine while using the electric motor all the time I possibly could.
I don't want cheap. I want the most efficient auto ever made. I'm expecting EPA ratings of 140 to 150 mpg(e), on the Model 3 standard battery AWD.
That's based on the EPA rating of the RWD S90D 2016 of 87 mpg(e) versus the AWD model same car same year of 103 mpg(e) times the 126 mpg(e) EPA rating of the RWD Model 3 that I picked up 4 days ago and gave to my daughter, plus my guesstimate of what 300 lbs or so less weight for the standard battery Model 3 will add to the mpg(e). Not cheap! Jeez-- I already own TWO Model S90Ds-- and one premium Model 3 (to daughter). I live 3 miles from work so I think 210 miles of range should be plenty.
I'm happy with the standard not premium interior on my S90D so I'll put that 5 grand saved into something else-- maybe more solar panels or towards a heat pump. Ground mounted or air?
Vern
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