Waiting for 100D....while current delivery estimate for 90D is March?

[Pinot.Noir]

I've been patiently waiting for the 100D to go live, and hoping to snag it before the end of the year and take delivery before March to qualify for free supercharging. When I configured the 90D about two weeks ago (maybe less) it still gave an estimate of late December. Now a 90D is stating March delivery. Is it possible that a car ordered in the next two weeks will end up pushing delivery to April?

 

[bswn1]

Highly doubtful. See my sig for an article I wrote about estimate production delivery times.

Chances are because you're in CA you're looking at a Feb - Early March timeline.

 

[calisnow]

Oh - this is something I was not aware of - to get unlimited lifetime supercharging we need to not only order before the end of 2016 but ALSO take delivery by end of March? If the car is delayed due to no fault of the purchaser they still won't get supercharging?

 

[number12]

I've been patiently waiting for the 100D to go live, and hoping to snag it before the end of the year and take delivery before March to qualify for free supercharging. When I configured the 90D about two weeks ago (maybe less) it still gave an estimate of late December. Now a 90D is stating March delivery. Is it possible that a car ordered in the next two weeks will end up pushing delivery to April?

That big of a gap would mean to me is delay due to changing all 90D orders to 100D battery.
Just a guess though

 

[calisnow]

That big of a gap would mean to me is delay due to changing all 90D orders to 100D battery.
Just a guess though

“Hope” is the thing with feathers -
That perches in the soul -
And sings the tune without the words -
And never stops - at all -
And sweetest - in the Gale - is heard -
And sore must be the storm -
That could abash the little Bird
That kept so many warm -
I’ve heard it in the chillest land -
And on the strangest Sea -
Yet - never - in Extremity,
It asked a crumb - of me.

- Dickinson

 

[calisnow]

Even the 60 says March delivery right now.

 

[Saghost]

I think it's pretty clear that the 100D won't become available until after the first. The end of unlimited supercharging is supposed to drive demand this quarter, and the 100D will drive demand next quarter. Probably the HUD and whatever other tricks Tesla has up their sleeve for the 3 will drive the April-June quarter.

i'm curious to see if they'll upgrade the 75 to 100 style modules at the same time - which would make it a new 85 or maybe 90 (100/16*14 = 87.5)

 

[calisnow]

I think it's pretty clear that the 100D won't become available until after the first. The end of unlimited supercharging is supposed to drive demand this quarter, and the 100D will drive demand next quarter. Probably the HUD and whatever other tricks Tesla has up their sleeve for the 3 will drive the April-June quarter.

Your theory makes perfect sense - I know two people personally who do not own a Tesla - both are considering purchasing before the end of 2016 specifically for the free supercharging. AP 2.0 and supercharging are a pretty compelling combo - I bet the order book is doing quite well.

 

[number12]

I think it's pretty clear that the 100D won't become available until after the first. The end of unlimited supercharging is supposed to drive demand this quarter, and the 100D will drive demand next quarter. Probably the HUD and whatever other tricks Tesla has up their sleeve for the 3 will drive the April-June quarter.

i'm curious to see if they'll upgrade the 75 to 100 style modules at the same time - which would make it a new 85 or maybe 90 (100/16*14 = 87.5)

Ppl who order now get this quarter plus next Quarter's driver. Plus better resale value with a "2017 model"

 

[Saghost]

Ppl who order now get this quarter plus next Quarter's driver. Plus better resale value with a "2017 model"

What do you mean? Unless you think you'll be able to order today, change it in January/February after the 100D is released, get delivered inMarch and keep unlimited Supercharging?

I'm pretty sure Tesla won't let that happen - actually the start of this thread was that cars ordered now might not arrive much before April, without the order being changed.

Usually when you change an order after a substantial option change, Tesla makes you take all the new terms - in this case I think they'd take away the unlimited if you update your order (and be well within their rights to do so.)

 

[number12]

What do you mean? Unless you think you'll be able to order today, change it in January/February after the 100D is released, get delivered inMarch and keep unlimited Supercharging?

I'm pretty sure Tesla won't let that happen - actually the start of this thread was that cars ordered now might not arrive much before April, without the order being changed.

Usually when you change an order after a substantial option change, Tesla makes you take all the new terms - in this case I think they'd take away the unlimited if you update your order (and be well within their rights to do so.)

Factory is going to close down for a week Jan 1 -7. Something will change.

I'm saying my guess will be 90 battery will get 86'd.

Either way people can cancel order if driver is compelling enough to forgo $2500 if tesla doesn't allow the change.

 

[Burnt Toast]

I

Factory is going to close down for a week Jan 1 -7. Something will change.

I'm saying my guess will be 90 battery will get 86'd.

Either way people can cancel order if driver is compelling enough to forgo $2500 if tesla doesn't allow the change.

don't think they need to shut down the factory for a week to swap the battery out. Where did you learn this information? A week shut down would be a more fundamental change, like the AP2 changeover, which apparently happened after a week shut down.

 

[Saghost]

I don't think they need to shut down the factory for a week to swap the battery out. Where did you learn this information? A week shut down would be a more fundamental change, like the AP2 changeover, which apparently happened after a week shut down.

We know the P100D modules are built differently and were initially more expensive. Maybe they'll change all of the machinery over to building 100 style modules then, and phase out the 75 after they run down the stock (keeping an 85 or 90 that's 14 of the new modules.)

Of course, unless the capacity of the machines building modules is their critical capacity driver, you'd think they could manage that without completely shutting down production...

 

[whitex]

Maybe the reason for March is for the factory to catch up with any oversees orders. It wouldn't surprise me if the last months of the year the factory is only doing production for North America, since those are most likely to be actually delivered and therefore counted as sales. I think this has happened in other years.

 

[whitex]

I know two people personally who do not own a Tesla - both are considering purchasing before the end of 2016 specifically for the free supercharging. AP 2.0 and supercharging are a pretty compelling combo - I bet the order book is doing quite well.

No way to order custom and get it by end of 2016 anymore. Tell them to start looking through inventory before the selection dwindles.

 

[calisnow]

No way to order custom and get it by end of 2016 anymore. Tell them to start looking through inventory before the selection dwindles.

Okay I'm really confused - I thought as long as you place your order by end of 2016 you get the free supercharging. No?

 

[MP3Mike]

Okay I'm really confused - I thought as long as you place your order by end of 2016 you get the free supercharging. No?

No you have to take delivery by the end of March as well. Which is starting to look shaky.

 

[number12]

I

don't think they need to shut down the factory for a week to swap the battery out. Where did you learn this information? A week shut down would be a more fundamental change, like the AP2 changeover, which apparently happened after a week shut down.

They shut down a week at end of each quarter. It's just a fact.

Oct 2014 D intro
Oct 2014 AP 1.0
July 2015 ludicrous mode
April 2016 front end redesign
Oct 2016 AP 2.0

 

[DIL]

I'll add another sales driver: the retirement of the 60 before the M3 goes on sale. It's just my opinion folks

I think it's pretty clear that the 100D won't become available until after the first. The end of unlimited supercharging is supposed to drive demand this quarter, and the 100D will drive demand next quarter. Probably the HUD and whatever other tricks Tesla has up their sleeve for the 3 will drive the April-June quarter.

i'm curious to see if they'll upgrade the 75 to 100 style modules at the same time - which would make it a new 85 or maybe 90 (100/16*14 = 87.5)

 

[DrBobM]

Maybe the reason for March is for the factory to catch up with any oversees orders. It wouldn't surprise me if the last months of the year the factory is only doing production for North America, since those are most likely to be actually delivered and therefore counted as sales. I think this has happened in other years.

I think that's likely. I'm in the UK and confirmed on 31 October, I was told 2 weeks ago by my DS that the build date is 19 December, delivery end February/early March (takes 8 weeks to cross the pond). That's a 7 week delay between confirmation and production start.