Waiting for Tax Credit to come back?

[hlin07]

As we all know now, Federal Tax credit for Tesla is long gone. This brings up interesting dilemma for some, myself included. While I'm sure tesla Model Y is superior than virtually all upcoming competitors, is it worth the extra cost?
Ford Mustang Mach E, VW ID4 for instance and other manufacturers still have full 7500 tax credit which makes their cars relatively cheaper.
Not to get political about it, in the likely event of a Biden victory and full senate and house controlled by democrats, would they bring tax credit back to even the playing field?

I'm just dreaming on this one, Tesla drops the price on Model Y to better compete with competition, and then poof the fed tax credit is brought up. It would be NO BRAINER then.. wishful thinking here.

 

[Misterbee]

As we all know now, Federal Tax credit for Tesla is long gone. This brings up interesting dilemma for some, myself included. While I'm sure tesla Model Y is superior than virtually all upcoming competitors, is it worth the extra cost?
Ford Mustang Mach E, VW ID4 for instance and other manufacturers still have full 7500 tax credit which makes their cars relatively cheaper.
Not to get political about it, in the likely event of a Biden victory and full senate and house controlled by democrats, would they bring tax credit back to even the playing field?

I'm just dreaming on this one, Tesla drops the price on Model Y to better compete with competition, and then poof the fed tax credit is brought up. It would be NO BRAINER then.. wishful thinking here.

Much as I would love to see it happen, I think it is highly unlikely. The cries of favoritism would be very loud.

 

[Cigar Man]

Much as I would love to see it happen, I think it is highly unlikely. The cries of favoritism would be very loud.

Just to add to the mix, there would also be the argument that the only two companies to have lost the tax credit are Tesla and General Motors (Bolt). Which means (right now, before the Mustang comes out) if you want to buy an electric car and get a tax break, you have to buy a foreign car.

Just sayin'

Like the OP, I have no desire to start a political war on this forum.

 

[Robocheme]

And if the tax credit came back for Tesla, they could raise prices to be competitive. Works both ways

 

[DaveORD]

I'd say you'd have better odds playing the lotto... I certainly would not hold my breath on that one.

The tax credit was an incentive to get people buying BEVs which are more expensive than their traditional ICE counterparts, to help offset the increased cost. Tesla has done well, used that tax credit to their advantage and sold a lot of cars that perhaps they might not have sold otherwise. So if the govt stepped in and gave them a further tax credit, then other manufacturers are going to cry foul and it may end up doing more damage to the EV push than help.

I'd say it is what it is, and if demand for Tesla lags, perhaps they will drop their price a bit to compete and/or offer other perks like free super charging for a year or two. But the days of $7500 credit for Tesla are long gone, you are too late to that party. Here in Illinois there are no longer any perks for buying BEVs - no more state tax credits and our BEV annual registration fees are $100 more than for comparable ICE counterparts.

 

[Watts_Up]

I bought a Model 3 in 2018 just before the end of the $7,500 Fed tax credit and the $2,500 California tax credit.
However Tesla reduced the price the following quarter, so basically the 2019 was then sold at the same price than the 2018 after tax credit.

One possibility for getting a tax credit would be to create a separate brand, like Cyber, independent from Tesla, to sell the CyberTruck.
This is exactly what Polestar and Volvo are doing:

Polestar 2 and Volvo XC40 Recharge: R&D chief on two EVs from the same braintrust
Just after the rollout in Los Angeles, Green Car Reports interviewed Henrik Green, the chief technology officer for the Volvo Car Group,
and its head of research and development operations, about what some of those similarities and differences might be.

“When it comes to battery technology, efficiency, current that we draw, power, etc.,
these are completely identical—the same team has tuned them both.”​

 

[tashtibet]

politics, politician, policy are all related-whether we like it or not. When Biden wins Fed EV incentives will come back.

Bipartisan Legislation Hopes to Extend Federal Tax Credit

 

[MXLRplus]

California is the most left-leaning US state. We have been nerfing EV subsidies for quite awhile. It has nothing to do with C19 since all the derating was prior to Feb20. Less rebates, higher sales taxes, more restrictive HOV access, and an actual EV-Tax.

If anything, people who have the financial means to buy Teslas will have less money to buy them with in a leftist environment.

Don't listen to what politicos say. Watch carefully what they do. You cannot always rely on the media if you want to stay informed.

Note that you can count on one hand how many Congressmembers drive EVs. One (ex-senator) even made a big point about owning one of the least 'green' cars made and the press ate it up. Later he swore he would ban gasoline. Don't hold your breath. That campaign money didn't fly out a monkey's butt.

 

[MXLRplus]

... a Biden victory and full senate and house controlled by democrats...

Then they can take your house, your kids, your job, your bank account, and anything else they desire from you. You will have no recourse. They can even halt elections. There is nothing to stop them. Even with Barrett on the court, at best, a Barrett court is moderate. They will agree to with unconstitutional laws 50% of the time.

 

[patmurphey]

If you compare apples to apples instead of apples to oranges, you will find that Teslas without the credit fare pretty well. The no option Mach-E dual motor extended range is only a few thousand more with the credit than the dual motor Model Y without (but with est. 270 mile EPA range compared to 326 mikes for the Model Y). I think you will find similar results with most of the actual competition.

I can add options to the Model Y and still qualify for NJ $5,000 rebate, I can't even upgrade the color on the Mach-E.

 

[MarkNW]

The dominant view of most economists is that in the context of the economic problems caused by the pandemic there needs to be government spending. There are a small number of conservative economists who don't believe this but if Biden wins he'll pay attention to for example: Opinion | Why Biden Will Need to Spend Big A favorite target for Ds for that funding is things with the green new deal particularly those that would increase employment. Home spending, e.g. solar roofs are a likely target. I would think that EVs would be a target too. I suspect that rescuing GM (again) would be part of that. I actually think that GM may tug at people's heart strings more than Tesla.

There'd be no unfairness in saying that until say 2023 or 24, BEVs all get a $5,000 subsidy and the companies that haven't used their subsidies get the full $7500, but it goes away at when they all end.

The caveat for this though is it assumes not only a Biden victory but a Dem victory in the senate. If the R's continue to control the senate they will take the same attitude they had with Obama and suddenly discover that they care about the deficit and want to ensure that Biden fails (as McConnell said about Obama).

 

[hlin07]

Then they can take your house, your kids, your job, your bank account, and anything else they desire from you. You will have no recourse. They can even halt elections. There is nothing to stop them. Even with Barrett on the court, at best, a Barrett court is moderate. They will agree to with unconstitutional laws 50% of the time.

My friend, don't get too obsess with the potential implications. Again, don't want to get into politics, just look at Obama's first two years when he had SUPERMAJORITY in senate and house, our lives didn't fall apart did it?

 

[ElectricIAC]

As we all know now, Federal Tax credit for Tesla is long gone. This brings up interesting dilemma for some, myself included. While I'm sure tesla Model Y is superior than virtually all upcoming competitors, is it worth the extra cost?
Ford Mustang Mach E, VW ID4 for instance and other manufacturers still have full 7500 tax credit which makes their cars relatively cheaper.
Not to get political about it, in the likely event of a Biden victory and full senate and house controlled by democrats, would they bring tax credit back to even the playing field?

I'm just dreaming on this one, Tesla drops the price on Model Y to better compete with competition, and then poof the fed tax credit is brought up. It would be NO BRAINER then.. wishful thinking here.

No. That is all.

 

[hlin07]

If you compare apples to apples instead of apples to oranges, you will find that Teslas without the credit fare pretty well. The no option Mach-E dual motor extended range is only a few thousand more with the credit than the dual motor Model Y without (but with est. 270 mile EPA range compared to 326 mikes for the Model Y). I think you will find similar results with most of the actual competition.

I can add options to the Model Y and still qualify for NJ $5,000 rebate, I can't even upgrade the color on the Mach-E.

First, you're right that apple to apple comparison is competitive, though I'd just add that Tesla's EPA range is overestimated, as a model 3 owner, I have NEVER got close to the advertised range, I've always aimed for 75% of the advertised range.
Now let's look at the basic version of Mach E, unless Tesla brings out model Y standard Range, Tesla is conceding this market to competition especially with 7500 tax credit factored in.
I almost never drive more than 100 miles a day, and there's an ICE car for long distance travel, so the lower range basic Mach E that's so much cheaper is really enticing.

 

[ElectricIAC]

First, you're right that apple to apple comparison is competitive, though I'd just add that Tesla's EPA range is overestimated, as a model 3 owner, I have NEVER got close to the advertised range, I've always aimed for 75% of the advertised range.
Now let's look at the basic version of Mach E, unless Tesla brings out model Y standard Range, Tesla is conceding this market to competition especially with 7500 tax credit factored in.
I almost never drive more than 100 miles a day, and there's an ICE car for long distance travel, so the lower range basic Mach E that's so much cheaper is really enticing.

75% is fairly close to accurate when driving with traffic at normal speeds.

 

[house9]

Tesla's EPA range is overestimated, as a model 3 owner, I have NEVER got close to the advertised range, I've always aimed for 75% of the advertised range.

The EPA tests determine the range not Tesla, you won't get EPA rated range in the Mach-E either and guessing you don't get EPA rated miles to the gallon in your ICE car.

...so the lower range basic Mach E that's so much cheaper is really enticing.

Get which ever car meets your needs. I wouldn't worry about Fed Tax rebate coming back, but instead worry about the incredible state rebate you get in New Jersey going away.

It may or may not be a consideration for you: built in Mexico vs built in USA (guessing robots due 60-80% of the labor in both cases)

I believe if you order Model Y now you would take delivery before the end of the year, Mach-E is limited production to begin but guessing you could take delivery by end of Q1 2021.

If we get a new 'Green Deal' putting money into EV charging infrastructure and solar installations (true energy independence) makes way more sense than extending EV car purchases rebates (to me at least).

 

[Trustedpro]

Considering a $5,000 NJ state EV rebate and saving $3,500 in sales tax, paying mid-$40'sK for a premium EV seems reasonable to me. You'll spend a little less on a Mach-E but you're still buying a Ford and your charging options are limited if you want to take it on a road trip.

 

[hlin07]

The EPA tests determine the range not Tesla, you won't get EPA rated range in the Mach-E either and guessing you don't get EPA rated miles to the gallon in your ICE car.



Get which ever car meets your needs. I wouldn't worry about Fed Tax rebate coming back, but instead worry about the incredible state rebate you get in New Jersey going away.

It may or may not be a consideration for you: built in Mexico vs built in USA (guessing robots due 60-80% of the labor in both cases)

I believe if you order Model Y now you would take delivery before the end of the year, Mach-E is limited production to begin but guessing you could take delivery by end of Q1 2021.

If we get a new 'Green Deal' putting money into EV charging infrastructure and solar installations (true energy independence) makes way more sense than extending EV car purchases rebates (to me at least).

EPA has something called adjustment factor used to determine EPA range for electric cars. Most electric car manufacturer just use the default 30% adjustment factor except Tesla and Audi according to The Adjustment Factor Tesla Uses to Get Its Big EPA Range Numbers.
As far as ICE car's EPA rating goes, YMMV but it's close to what the label says in aggregate. I don't think I've heard anyone on this forum claim to average the exact EPA estimate range on their tesla. No point in convincing people on this forum on the advantage of EV, I believe most if not all of us are firmly on the EV train track.
As far as EV charging infrastructure, supply and demand will dictate that. With more and more EVs on the road, the demand for charging stations will surely result in more and more infrastructure installations.

 

[MXLRplus]

Considering a $5,000 NJ state EV rebate and saving $3,500 in sales tax, paying mid-$40'sK for a premium EV seems reasonable to me. You'll spend a little less on a Mach-E but you're still buying a Ford and your charging options are limited if you want to take it on a road trip.

The illusion that there is no DCFC except Tesla in the US is inaccurate. The CHAdeMO/CCS infrastructure is so much more common now than Superchargers that I ended up buying the CHAdeMO adapter to enhance my EV road coverage.

Unlike most "EV Experts", I have driven both types of cars and used their DCFCs many times. If you take road trips, you will learn the truth. Since I don't monetize my driving reviews, I can tell you the truth.

 

[Cigar Man]

I almost never drive more than 100 miles a day, and there's an ICE car for long distance travel, so the lower range basic Mach E that's so much cheaper is really enticing.

I decided on a Tesla even though we have an ICE car for long trips. But I still wanted to be able to drive to Houston on occasion. I live in deep south Texas, right on the Rio Grande, and the only public fast chargers are Tesla Superchargers. In other words, none of the others, such as Electrify America, Charge Point etc. have chargers south of San Antonio - Houston.