voip-ninja
Give me some sugar baby
This isn’t the right thread for this discussion but I’m going to comment that Tesla registered a massive number of VINs and they were all AWD.
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Was I wrong?
- Thread starter StillDreamin
- Start date
This isn’t the right thread for this discussion but I’m going to comment that Tesla registered a massive number of VINs and they were all AWD.
voip - Do you mean what was seen in orange on the graph of this site? Model 3 VINs
That's represented in my one-point per month graph and Jan still hasn't surpassed October, though it could soon.
That's represented in my one-point per month graph and Jan still hasn't surpassed October, though it could soon.
Assuming that the SR, Non-Premium (SRNP) 3 is too expensive to build (without losing money) in the USA as Musk stated, two things could be holding it back: material costs and/or labor costs. We know labor costs in China will be lower. There should be no argument there.
I think it would behoove Tesla to build some SRNP3s in limited quantity as soon as they can afford to. It will build excitement in the lower cost EV market and create even more demand. If US demand for the LR and MR has dried up, then they will have to. Otherwise, those cars will ship to other countries that have the demand.
There are ICE owners out there who will become excited once they ride in or drive a 3 and realize they can afford one. They may have to wait, but we are all waiting for our Teslas one way or another.
The recent email about cutting costs and shedding 7% of employees is an indication Tesla is serious about making the SRNP3 profitable. Every company goes through these reductions. Assuming that Tesla’s race to profit encountered some added expenses, now is the time to shed the extra weight and optimize production. This move surprises me in no way whatsoever.
I think it would behoove Tesla to build some SRNP3s in limited quantity as soon as they can afford to. It will build excitement in the lower cost EV market and create even more demand. If US demand for the LR and MR has dried up, then they will have to. Otherwise, those cars will ship to other countries that have the demand.
There are ICE owners out there who will become excited once they ride in or drive a 3 and realize they can afford one. They may have to wait, but we are all waiting for our Teslas one way or another.
The recent email about cutting costs and shedding 7% of employees is an indication Tesla is serious about making the SRNP3 profitable. Every company goes through these reductions. Assuming that Tesla’s race to profit encountered some added expenses, now is the time to shed the extra weight and optimize production. This move surprises me in no way whatsoever.
UngaBunga1989
Member
+1. That was the deal. Premium version of everything and better range for a nominal upcharge (owing to the $7,500 rebate) compared to the hypothetical SR, base version. By the time Tesla actually releases a $35,000 version (and I suspect they actually will not -- it will be more like $38,000 with a mea culpa -- "we tried but just couldn't quite get there, plus inflation over the past three years makes us almost there!") you will be getting much "less" car for your money as a $38,000 (or $35,000) car with no rebate is actually substantially "less" car than the MR was with the full $7,500 rebate.
Quite a few people know my feelings on this. @MXWing in particular. 
It's my opinion the SR version will not hit the market before the second half of this year, if it ever does. They are going to focus the next few months on the EU market, because that's where the money is. Anybody with any sense at all can see this.
I'm pretty sure this statement best sums up what I've been saying for quite a while now, even though many don't want to hear it:
It's my opinion the SR version will not hit the market before the second half of this year, if it ever does. They are going to focus the next few months on the EU market, because that's where the money is. Anybody with any sense at all can see this.
I'm pretty sure this statement best sums up what I've been saying for quite a while now, even though many don't want to hear it:
AustinPowers
Total Smeghead
The version of the Model 3 I was interested in from the beginning never was the entry level version, so no complaints from me in that respect.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Currently Tesla states 4-6 months. That's a lot later February.
Also, the MR is under 40k with the tax credit (and was even cheaper prior to 12/31).
Most likely by the time the SR is out the tax credit will be halved again, or gone, and you'll be getting a lot lower-feature car for a pretty similar price to the MR purchased with the larger credits.
I refer to the tweet of Musk, when he talked about the reason of the MR pack.
"It’s a long range battery with fewer cells. Non-cell portion of the pack is disproportionately high, but we can get it done now instead of ~February"
18 Oct 2018
Not sure about the disponibilty in 4-6 months, it's the same estimate on their website since when...november?
I'm located in Québec (Canada), so I'm lucky to still have a government incentive. But actual MR is still too expensive for me.
"It’s a long range battery with fewer cells. Non-cell portion of the pack is disproportionately high, but we can get it done now instead of ~February"
18 Oct 2018
Not sure about the disponibilty in 4-6 months, it's the same estimate on their website since when...november?
I'm located in Québec (Canada), so I'm lucky to still have a government incentive. But actual MR is still too expensive for me.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
That's kind of the point.
Despite Elon speculating about delivery (and he's been years off on other such speculation- remember when Tesla was gonna do an FSD drive coast to coast in 2017?) the actual ordering website doesn't appear to have moved estimates in at all.
February production will still be filling higher-profit orders in Europe and Asia, 0 chance of the SR releasing in the US... (or really until that higher-end demand is largely met worldwide as it makes no economic sense to retool production lines to make low (or possibly no) profit cars when you have a backlog of more expensive ones to build.
About backlog of higher trims M3, it's difficult to estimate...for US pretty sure it's pretty inexistant. For Europe, yes, a bunch of folks are waiting for the MR, February will surely be dedicated at them. But what they are gonna do to stimulate demand in US...? They can start ordering process of SR w PUP (actual owners, people who reserve in-line, online...)
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The primary value of SR is bringing MR to people with lower range and lower cost. Meaning - same car without the range. That's the "fuel tank" size primarily. Slightly slower 0-60 time, I would suspect as well. But still faster than most ICE on the road in traffic. Then if you want all the gadgets, either add them at purchase time or buy a used LR AWD or LR RWD after the depreciation hits. I'm sure that once SR comes out, longer range models will start to hit the used-market at prices not too far off - for those who cannot utilize the tax credit, this is a good idea.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It took them over a year to fill demand for the US/Canada- even when production was up to roughly the current level AND they were offering multiple models/configs it took 6 months... so I don't think they're going to run out of customers for current more expensive than SR cars anytime sooner than summer....
I've said for a while you MIGHT see SR with PUP around the time the tax credit gets cut in half again, but I doubted you'd see base SR much earlier than end of year.... and haven't seen anything to change my mind on that.
Waiting for SR with PUP, which would only be 2k less than MR with PUP, at risk of losing $1875 in tax credit, doesn't seem to make much sense.
Waiting for SR without PUP, which would be 7k less than MR with PUP, at risk of losing $3750 in tax credit MIGHT make sense for some people really reaching to buy a Tesla at all- though those people could've gotten the MR/PUP car for 2.5k net difference before Dec 31.
I still don't get why we play this game in EV-Land.
If the car is $40K and the credit is $7500, you don't get to buy it for $32,500. It's a tax credit, and that's only if your tax bill exceeds $7500. You still have to finance $40K. It just seems entirely disingenious, and it's no different really than trying to subtract your fuel savings off the price (like Tesla tries to do). It presents a false economic proposition.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It's really not though, if you're able to use the whole credit.
Which most people buying a Tesla are. (and I'd say nearly ALL people buying one in 2019 are)
Versus the fuel savings that are vastly dependent on your actual usage patterns, your local gas cost, your local electric cost, and thus varies a lot more greatly.
The point is you still have to shell out for the car. You don't get to take if off the top.
All the posts I've read over the months telling people to just spring for the MR ignores the fact that (before December 31) a $44K outlay is a lot different than $35k for many people. The whole price factors into your payment, and it has to fit a budget. Even if you take the full tax credit and apply it to your loan, you are still left with that monthly payment.
$9000 difference can make something affordable vs. not in many cases and it ignores realistic economic scenarios. You can't simply tell people "suck it up and spring for the more expensive car". The tax credit is nice but won't change that situation.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Except you're not required to "shell out" the whole amount up front....even if you were paying cash for the car you could just get a loan for that 7.5k and repay it in full a couple months later. At the interest rates available late last year you'd be talking a "cost" of maybe 50-100 bucks interest out of pocket.
Optimal order time an MR would've been Mid-October 2018....45k up front for MR with PUP. $7500 tax credit.
Let's say money IS a bit tight and you go for an 84 month loan as a result- they were around 2.29% then-
that's $580 a month, and you'll be getting $7500 back on your taxes.... or almost $94 per remaining payment if you hung on to it for that use over the ~80 months you had left on the loan when you did your taxes.
So your payment is about $486 a month applying the tax credit to remaining payments.
Now let's say you didn't do that- you wait till the next "cheaper" one comes out... that's almost certainly gonna be the SR still requiring PUP so 40k... bad news though- interest rates are higher now... 2.99 seems the best these days on an 84 month loan, which is... $528 a month. And you're most likely getting 3750 back in taxes- or just under $47/month over 80 payments.
So you're looking at a net payment of $481. For a short range car.
Versus $486 a month for the medium range one.
If $5 a month breaks you maybe a new car is a bad idea?
Oh- and the SR without PUP? Assuming they DO sell it by December- you're talking 35k for 84 months at likely 3.5%, so $470 a month, and only $1875 back on taxes, which is just over $23/month. over 80 months.
Your net payment would be... $447
Granted, this IS ~35 bucks a month more than getting the much nicer featured, longer range, model 3... but again if THAT breaks your budget a new car is a really dumb idea in the first place.
And if you miss the Dec 31 deadline to take delivery of your SR? Now you are paying only $16 a month less to have given up PUP and longer range and waiting over a year still paying for gasoline.
The key will be can or will banks offer leases. A lot of people want an EV - leasing solves that problem. A lot of people need a car and a need differs from a want. If they wanted it bad enough - would have gotten it by now. If they didn't want it but rather need it during 2019, because another car lease is coming up at-end, then the type of car and price needs to be ready for them.
Some took leases on Model S in 2016 on 2-year basis because Model 3 was "imminent" and they wanted to get a Tesla lease before the purchase of the Model 3. However, 2019 shows that it's unknown when SR will be out in the USA and certainly EU and Asia. Let's say it is July or August. Could Tesla squeeze it into June somehow and allow people to get the 3750 tax credit? If no SR comes out in June, then the IRS will not accept any "June backdating" of SR purchases to game the tax system. So, the thing I look for is when does an announcement for USA-delivery of SR happen? Maybe a teaser soon to juice the markets? Maybe announce SR timeline on the Q4 conference call on Jan 30th?
Everyday is interesting in Tesla land.
Some took leases on Model S in 2016 on 2-year basis because Model 3 was "imminent" and they wanted to get a Tesla lease before the purchase of the Model 3. However, 2019 shows that it's unknown when SR will be out in the USA and certainly EU and Asia. Let's say it is July or August. Could Tesla squeeze it into June somehow and allow people to get the 3750 tax credit? If no SR comes out in June, then the IRS will not accept any "June backdating" of SR purchases to game the tax system. So, the thing I look for is when does an announcement for USA-delivery of SR happen? Maybe a teaser soon to juice the markets? Maybe announce SR timeline on the Q4 conference call on Jan 30th?
Everyday is interesting in Tesla land.
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