Washington Post: How Elon Musk knocked Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving’ off course

[mspohr]

solid improvements keep on coming but still nowhere near Level 3. something Elon has promised for years now. (never mind the L4 robotaxi talk).

You keep using the word "promise".
I don't think it means what you think.

 

[DFibRL8R]

That guy, Faiz Siddiqui, is a Elon Musk hating troll. His job is to write something negative about Tesla and Musk. He probably has authored around 50+ negative articles on Tesla and ZERO anything neutral or positive. There are 4 or 5 well known talking points these articles always regurgitate, with a biased view...

Yeah, I recommend folks not click on his articles, just feeding the troll. He typically has poorly researched, opinion pieces masquerading as some sort of quality investigative journalism. As a WaPo subscriber, I choose not to read anything he writes. The only Tesla, Elon articles I read on their site are those authored by other writers.

 

[COS Blue]

You keep using the word "promise".
I don't think it means what you think.

Here's what was sold in 2016 for FSD. But I read it again and it does not say "We promise."

The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don't say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

Also from Tesla's blog post in 2016... but again, they did not pinky swear:

We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver.

So, yeah, I guess if you actually believed any of that, it's on you.

Source: Tesla announces all production cars now have fully self-driving hardware

 

[Krash]

So, the fact that FSD keeps getting better is a significant action.

When FSD gets significantly better that will something. Actions that don’t make FSD significantly better don’t get many points from me.

 

[pipestem]

How many owners bought FSD thinking they were going to robotaxi or actually have a real FSD machine, vs how many bought FSD because it's a cool techology they want to experience and see grow? In other words, how many percieve some material loss?

That is a true question, I have no idea or agenda.

I did not buy FSD -- just not that interested in it. I don't want to robotaxi. The car already drives great.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

"The currently enabled Autopilot, Enhanced Autopilot and Full Self-Driving features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. Full autonomy will be dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions."

so basically:

- you are getting a L2 system
- potentially (or maybe never with the current sensor hardware) you will get L3+ if / when regulators give it approval ...

 

[Dewg]

How many owners bought FSD thinking they were going to robotaxi or actually have a real FSD machine, vs how many bought FSD because it's a cool techology they want to experience and see grow? In other words, how many percieve some material loss?

That is a true question, I have no idea or agenda.

I did not buy FSD -- just not that interested in it. I don't want to robotaxi. The car already drives great.

I purchased FSD (2021) to help the technology improve - I saw where they were, and the potential of the system, and the experience has been great for me. It was rough in the beginning, but has improved for me over the months.

 

[Mark II]

Here's what was sold in 2016 for FSD. But I read it again and it does not say "We promise."

I don't know, I think you need to read it yet again, carefully:

We promise the system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver's seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, we promise you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.

We promise all you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don't say anything, we promise the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. We promise your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. We promise when you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

 

[Bob Denny]

Yes, I'm not complaining other than being baited into thinking I'd have FSD a year after I bought my car (2020). Since then I've realized how damn hard this is, and how easy uit would have been to trust some "young-n-saavy" programmers. I give Mr. Musk lots of slack, especially with the media hit pieces being written by the corrupt media after opening up Twitter and exposing their collusion with the government etc.

 

[LadyOnikara]

I haven't even tried FSD yet. Basically it's my mom's decision, since Casper is her car. After seeing how our dogs reacted to just the trunk closing itself since we never had a vehicle that can do that, I want to at least try Super Summon since it looks like you can get your car to follow you from what I've seen on videos. I want to see how the dogs react to that. (The female dog was a little wary when I was just playing with the LightShow.)

 

[aerodyne]

I haven't even tried FSD yet. Basically it's my mom's decision, since Casper is her car. After seeing how our dogs reacted to just the trunk closing itself since we never had a vehicle that can do that, I want to at least try Super Summon since it looks like you can get your car to follow you from what I've seen on videos. I want to see how the dogs react to that. (The female dog was a little wary when I was just playing with the LightShow.)

Not a dog lover, but I'd be careful summoning the car around your dogs...just saying.

Not sure how I found this thread. I was researching how to help the hapless owner of my former car, which developed the dreaded BMS errors after only 7 years and 66k miles in the most benign conditions I could manage. (No driving in rain, always garaged, always chill mode, never below 20%, over 93% 5 times only, etc)

I think what most are missing here, is that FSD does not mean to most people a high risk development program. It means what it says. Reinforced by recent statements saying the future value of Tesla will be primarily robotaxis.

Saying it will be ready by the end of last year pending only regulatory approval is not forward looking, it is a lie, pure and simple.

Tesla would be wise to admit they have made mistakes on this front, rename the product SDD, (Self Driving Development) like Toyota's TRD, and offer refunds to those early adopters with less than HW3.

I think a bit of honesty will not cost much in sales short term, and will avoid a large legal risk long term.

 

[JB47394]

I think a bit of honesty will not cost much in sales short term, and will avoid a large legal risk long term.

I think Elon is being honest. He actually believes the timelines and such. He's just ridiculously optimistic - which is why SpaceX, Tesla and Boring exist as viable entities. Someone who didn't have his same level of audacious aspiration would never have succeeded at the things that his companies have pulled off. He not only convinces his employees that they can make things work, he also convinces customers and business partners that it'll all happen, and soon. When Elon stops announcing antigravity next week, that's when this whole crazy wondrous push into the future stops.

 

[dcesq06]

I think Elon is being honest. He actually believes the timelines and such. He's just ridiculously optimistic - which is why SpaceX, Tesla and Boring exist as viable entities. Someone who didn't have his same level of audacious aspiration would never have succeeded at the things that his companies have pulled off. He not only convinces his employees that they can make things work, he also convinces customers and business partners that it'll all happen, and soon. When Elon stops announcing antigravity next week, that's when this whole crazy wondrous push into the future stops.

There is a very fine line with being ridiculously optimistic and lying.

Believing he can build a fleet of robotaxis is ridiculously optimistic. Stating that it's going to happen within a clearly unrealistic time frame (in light of where the project stands at the time the statement is made) is lying.

I commend the ambition and optimism. I could do without the lying.

 

[JB47394]

There is a very fine line with being ridiculously optimistic and lying.

Not at all. The former requires sincerity and the latter requires deceit. It's all about intent. For example, you just made that statement, which I consider to be false. But i accept that you are sincere about your statement, so I don't believe that you are attempting to deceive me.

That said, there is a fine line between being ridiculously optimistic and just plain bonkers.

 

[jebinc]

There is a very fine line with being ridiculously optimistic and lying.

Believing he can build a fleet of robotaxis is ridiculously optimistic. Stating that it's going to happen within a clearly unrealistic time frame (in light of where the project stands at the time the statement is made) is lying.

I commend the ambition and optimism. I could do without the lying.

That’s what Charlatan’s do, they manipulate and mislead.