Watch Autoline this week on Thursday

[voip-ninja]

In both scenarios you only need enough range to get to where the lights are still on to charge/fuel. The thought that you would be stuck with an EV more than you would be in an ICE is what makes that cringeworthy to me.

If you have a household battery and solar panels you could charge your car slowly in a blackout, and if you had jerry cans of fuel in your shed you could also fuel up your fossil. Not everyone would have those options, so you would be looking for another way to get around than either EV or ICE.
A perfect example of a case where everyone without pedal-powered vehicles, are equallystuck. Bring on PV!

Which is easier for the average person to do to be prepared, keep a few 5 gallon gerry cans in the garage or have a PV with an inverter that side charges an expensive and complicated to install (typically only certain 20 amp circuits) battery setup or Tesla PowerWall?

I think home off-grid electric solutions will get there eventually but I'm sure glad I've got 30 gallons of gas in rotation in one of my garages along with a couple of generators in the event there is a sustained blackout that lasts more than a day or so.

 

[voip-ninja]

Agreed. They tested one very early build Model 3 and contended that it applies to all Model 3s. Every car that comes out of any factory is slightly different. My Model 3 is perfect, as far as I can tell, and any imperfection that may exist is too microscopic to be of concern to me.

Things like the body weighing 200 lbs more than it should or assemblies that have extra cost and complexity (multiple plates welded together instead of one or two extruded parts) are "issues" that affect all of the cars on the line unless or until Tesla makes big design revisions.

 

[voip-ninja]

So he's saying, if Tesla designed it, but got someone else to build it (Magna-Steyr or whomever kinda like Apple design, but Foxconn builds), then Tesla would mop the floor. This sounds like what they're going to do with the Semi.

I don't believe there's any indication Tesla is going to outsource manufacturing of the Tesla Semi. Do you have a source for that info?

I do however agree that if Tesla had approached the assembly differently and focused on the technology (electronics, software, battery) they might have avoided some of these problems.

Hindsight always 20/20.

 

[Brando]

Seems like elon is close to ripping out at least some of the robots. Not a problem when you consider that those robots can be put to work in other lines. But, it seems Tesla needs to train their employees more in order to improve quality.

Elon mentions parts delivery system of conveyor belts and it wasn't really working and I believe he said they were removing most of this parts delivery system.

 

[kengchang]

Elon mentions parts delivery system of conveyor belts and it wasn't really working and I believe he said they were removing most of this parts delivery system.

It was already gone when they did the CBS interview

 

[adaptabl]

Seems like elon is close to ripping out at least some of the robots. Not a problem when you consider that those robots can be put to work in other lines. But, it seems Tesla needs to train their employees more in order to improve quality.

Most of those robots are for a specific purpose design. Very unlikely to have use elsewhere.

 

[strykeroz]

I think home off-grid electric solutions will get there eventually but I'm sure glad I've got 30 gallons of gas in rotation in one of my garages along with a couple of generators in the event there is a sustained blackout that lasts more than a day or so.

Agreed, kinda. The contention life would be harder in an extended blackout for EV owners still makes me cringe.

 

[X Fan]

"5) Fit and finish is on a par with a 1990's Kia (except when it's not, and that seems to be fairly random)"

Wow, just not seeing that with the vehicles I've seen (including my son's 8xxx vehicle). Maybe he hit the lottery but his fit/finish was spot on and substantially better than the BMW X5 rental I was driving.

 

[abasile]

I think home off-grid electric solutions will get there eventually but I'm sure glad I've got 30 gallons of gas in rotation in one of my garages along with a couple of generators in the event there is a sustained blackout that lasts more than a day or so.

I'm thankful to have two Tesla Powerwalls, a PV array on the roof, and EVs in the driveway! Sure, we'd have to limit our EV charging in the event of an extended blackout, but at least we'd be able to get around (if the roads are passable, i.e., there hasn't been a large earthquake). No worries about running out of generator fuel - the sun provides more energy each day (most days, anyway). And no worries about having to use gasoline before it goes stale (good thing, since we don't own anything else that burns gasoline).

 

[voip-ninja]

I'm thankful to have two Tesla Powerwalls, a PV array on the roof, and EVs in the driveway! Sure, we'd have to limit our EV charging in the event of an extended blackout, but at least we'd be able to get around (if the roads are passable, i.e., there hasn't been a large earthquake). No worries about running out of generator fuel - the sun provides more energy each day (most days, anyway). And no worries about having to use gasoline before it goes stale (good thing, since we don't own anything else that burns gasoline).

The Powerwalls have about 13kWh of energy, that's not much considering that a gallon of gasoline has about 33kWh.

So, 20 gallons of gas = 660 kWh of energy for my small gas generators, or enough to keep critical things in my house running for a few days in an emergency. Not sure that the power walls would have enough energy to even keep something like a furnace going for more than a day.... even a high efficiency gas furnace pulls about 10 amps when it is operating, running the blower, etc.

 

[docherf]

that a gallon of gasoline has about 33kWh.

So, 20 gallons of gas = 660 kWh of energy for my small gas generators,

Keep in mind gas generators only get 4 to 8 kWh per gallon of gas (not 33) . Like car engines, they are quite inefficient, producing a great deal of waste heat. May need to keep 5x more fuel on hand for your needs.

 

[abasile]

The Powerwalls have about 13kWh of energy, that's not much considering that a gallon of gasoline has about 33kWh.

So, 20 gallons of gas = 660 kWh of energy for my small gas generators, or enough to keep critical things in my house running for a few days in an emergency. Not sure that the power walls would have enough energy to even keep something like a furnace going for more than a day.... even a high efficiency gas furnace pulls about 10 amps when it is operating, running the blower, etc.

True, 13kWh isn't a ton of energy, but a solar PV plus Powerwall setup can work better than many might expect. I think Tesla has a very large market opportunity with the Powerwall as word gets out. Here are some key points:

1. For whole-home backup, Tesla normally considers two Powerwalls to be the minimum. This gives you about 27kWh when full, and up to 10kW of discharge power.

2. On one of the coldest days of the year (maybe 14F/-10C for us), our high efficiency gas furnace may require 6 kWh in total. That's assuming 12 hours of running the blower at about 500W. It might be double that for a large house, or close to the capacity of a single Powerwall as you stated. Of course, this depends greatly on how well the home is insulated.

3. Solar panels will produce some energy even with lots of clouds. If necessary, particularly if there's a power outage, a snow rake can be used to clear the panels after a snowstorm.

4. In an outage, whether relying on a gas generator or on Powerwalls, we'd seek to conserve energy. The exception would be an outage occurring during spring or summer when we have far more daily PV generation than we ever use in the house (not including the EVs). Even during mid-winter, we have enough PV production to meet our basic needs, but outages often coincide with storms.

5. Gas generators aren't very efficient (pointed out by docherf).

Since shortly after getting our Powerwalls installed, we've been entirely powered by PV and batteries between 8am and 10pm each day, and we export excess solar energy to the grid during the day in exchange for some peachy NEM credits. At night, during our utility's "super off peak" rate period, we switch to using the grid and the EVs get charged then. Economically, it only makes sense to charge an EV from our Powerwalls if we need a range boost during the utility's afternoon/evening "peak" rate period. We drive the EVs too much to be able to go off grid 24/7 anyway.

 

[gregd]

Since shortly after getting our Powerwalls installed, we've been entirely powered by PV and batteries between 8am and 10pm each day, and we export excess solar energy to the grid during the day in exchange for some peachy NEM credits. At night, during our utility's "super off peak" rate period, we switch to using the grid and the EVs get charged then. Economically, it only makes sense to charge an EV from our Powerwalls if we need a range boost during the utility's afternoon/evening "peak" rate period. We drive the EVs too much to be able to go off grid 24/7 anyway.

Just curious, is it better to export the daytime excess and buy it back at night for EV charging, vs charging during the day, assuming you can regulate the charge rate to not exceed the generating capacity? Or, does the day export / night import arbitrage still work in your favor?

 

[Gavinhirst]

These guys crack me up with their vernier calipers. The average person and even the above average person has never noticed a millimeter or two panel gap. Honestly, how many people other than these techweenies can tell the difference between a "perfect" i3 and a less than perfect Model 3? I think most people just get in their car and enjoy it without agonizing over panel gaps. And honestly, very little of this matters in the performance of a car. My Model 3 looks perfect to me and has no rattles or squeaks, it's without question the highest quality car I have every owned. This is really just inside baseball that most people don't care about, in fact, most people don't even know what a panel gap is. To those that this does matter to.... buy an i3 instead and enjoy your 112 mile range, bicycle tires and Briggs and Stratton range extender.

I think it is unwise to ignore someone like Munro with his extensive industry experience, and I think that while Joe average Tesla owner (is there such a person), might not care about the panel gaps, I took the overall point about re-work and production output as the key issue here. I think Tesla would be wise to listen to this chap. He wants to help (right at the end of the video)!

 

[Gavinhirst]

Very interesting. There will be as many opinions of what was said as there are viewers. One opinion I have had for the last two years is that we are all Beta testers. However, if you can hold out for two years, and get a Model 3A, you will get a great car.

Weight is the enemy of cost, (for the company), and fuel economy, (for the owner). If the cost of fuel, (electricity) is $.04-.05 per mile, an extra 100 pounds is not going to cost us much.

By the way, make sure you watch to the end. They appear to quit at about the one hour mark, but they start talking again and get to some Tesla questions.

I thought the exact same thing. I have a couple of mates with M3 on order, but it will be 2020before they see them here in Oz, but I’m hopefull they have these kind of things ironed (or maybe aluminiumed out , by then. The MX I own handles fantastically, and if the M3is even close there will be a lot of very happy owners around the world!

 

[Gavinhirst]

Just curious, is it better to export the daytime excess and buy it back at night for EV charging, vs charging during the day, assuming you can regulate the charge rate to not exceed the generating capacity? Or, does the day export / night import arbitrage still work in your favor?

I would say charging during the day will just empty your batteries. On the odd occasion my MX has still been charging when the batteries come back online (I top them up from off-peak), they discharge at full noise. This will be what happened if you charge midday unless you have a way of sending only excess power I.e what would normally be exported to the grid, to your EV. Not aware of any system that can do that, not sure how the Tesla would manage that either. Best charging overnight/off-peak.

 

[gregd]

unless you have a way of sending only excess power I.e what would normally be exported to the grid, to your EV. Not aware of any system that can do that, not sure how the Tesla would manage that either.

Ok, this is what I was hoping the system could do, but apparently not (yet). Should be "easy" to do, no? I mean, Tesla designed both sides...

 

[MP3Mike]

This will be what happened if you charge midday unless you have a way of sending only excess power I.e what would normally be exported to the grid, to your EV. Not aware of any system that can do that, not sure how the Tesla would manage that either. Best charging overnight/off-peak.

It would be almost trivial for Tesla to be able to support that. All they would need to do is make a WC "master controller" that was connected to the Internet so it could get data from the Solar and Powerwall systems and then send out the necessary commands to the WCs. (You would just set all of the WCs to slave mode.)

There are people working on making a solution to do exactly that by controlling the load-sharing feature of the newer WCs.

Here is a thread about it: New Wall Connector load sharing protocol

I think there is also a company in the UK that has made a product but sells it with a monthly subscription cost. (That is what I remember anyhow.)

 

[abasile]

Just curious, is it better to export the daytime excess and buy it back at night for EV charging, vs charging during the day, assuming you can regulate the charge rate to not exceed the generating capacity? Or, does the day export / night import arbitrage still work in your favor?

Today, with SCE (Southern California Edison) on NEM 1.0 and TOU-D-A, we are mostly credited at the "peak" and "off peak" retail rates ranging from $0.27/kWh to $0.48/kWh when we export our solar power to the grid. At night, we charge the EVs on "super off peak" electricity at $0.12/kWh. It's a sweet deal that can't last. Eventually, I expect the utilities to designate the midday hours as "super off peak" because of the abundance of solar generation, in which case we'll shift much of our EV charging to the daytime.

As for daytime EV charging on solar, a simple approach that works today is to lower the charge current. When our panels are in full sun, we can set our Model S to charge at 20A and hardly need to tap the Powerwalls let alone the grid. (As stated above, we currently only do this on rare occasions.)

Aside from backup which is valuable to us, the arbitrage case for us to have Powerwalls is weak today because of our current electric rate structure. It'll be different when daytime solar exports are valued lower, on a per-kWh basis, than nighttime energy from the grid. This is already the case with any utility that lacks a solar feed-in tariff or that pays low rates for solar exports.

One thing that blows me away is how much cheaper the Powerwall is, per kWh of storage, compared with the competition. Even so, to match the storage capacity of the Model 3 Long Range battery pack, you'd have to buy about six Powerwalls which would cost $35,400 exclusive of installation costs! This suggests that Tesla has, or will have, very good profit margins on the Powerwall hardware. Further, there's the Tesla brand and cross-marketing opportunities, as evidenced by Tesla's promotion of Powerwalls and solar panels at the new Supercharger lounge halfway between LA and SF.

 

[SageBrush]

Today, with SCE (Southern California Edison) on NEM 1.0 and TOU-D-A, we are mostly credited at the "peak" and "off peak" retail rates ranging from $0.27/kWh to $0.48/kWh when we export our solar power to the grid.

How much of the battery cost do you estimate is going to be covered by arbitrage games ?