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Waymo

Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by Daniel in SD, Oct 5, 2020.

  1. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Ok. So let's accept that Tesla has 400 autonomous miles and 0 disengagements. Cool! Every single AV company can do that. That is too small a sample. How many miles can FSD Beta do before it gets its first disengagement? How many accidents would FSD Beta get into if there was no driver in the car?

    If Tesla has millions of miles, then Tesla needs to show us the data. Waymo showed us 6M autonomous miles of data that shows us what the FSD is capable of. Tesla can do the same. Then we can see how good the FSD Beta really is over a large enough sample.

    The reason I say that Waymo is ahead is because Waymo has the confidence to put the public in a car with no driver every day and because they have released hard data over millions of autonomous miles that show us what the accident rate is.

    FSD Beta "demos" don't mean jack. I want to see hard data! Tesla can easily prove me that FSD Beta is as good or better than Waymo but releasing millions of autonomous miles of data that show every accident and by putting people in driverless cars.
     
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  2. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    #522 mspisars, Jan 7, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2021
    What demos are you talking about.
    Tesla has not released any demos since the Autonomy Day presentation. Please put down the pipe.
    These FSD Beta videos are not demos, this is Tesla owners doing whatever they feel like doing with their car, at whatever time of day they feel like doing it and in whatever weather they feel comfortable. (this is something Waymo can only dream of but - my bet - will never achieve).
    https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=fsd+beta&sp=CAI%3D

    I gave you 1 data point from a single user (Whole Mars) but you want to now ignore all the thousands of videos we have as proof across 16 states in all kinds of environments.
     
  3. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Beta testing in 16 States with no geofencing is great but that's just proof that Tesla is doing a lot of beta testing. It does not tell how safe and reliable FSD Beta actually is. We need real data on the actual driving performance of FSD Beta!

    You only gave 1 data point of 500 miles with no disengagement. That is not enough data.

    Thousands of people are riding in fully driverless Waymo cars. And Waymo has released concrete data on 6M autonomous miles that shows us that it is safe and reliable fully autonomous driving.

    Again, if Tesla has millions of autonomous miles from all the FSD Beta testing as you claim, then Tesla can easily release the data to show us how close it is to being driverless. I am waiting.
     
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  4. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    No, I only pointed out 1 data point and I linked to thousands of data points https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=fsd+beta&sp=CAI%253D
    If you want you can narrow it down only to the latest Beta 9 with hundreds of examples just on YouTube!
    https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=fsd+beta+9&sp=CAI%253D

    My argument was not that 400 or 500 mile trip is enough.
    My argument is that it is just one example in a sea of FSD Beta video's by Tesla owners.
     
  5. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Ok. So there is a lot of video data that can be found. But what does the data say? How close to driverless is FSD Beta? You want me to analyze 100's of videos and manually calculate the total disengagement rate?

    I've watched a lot of the videos, my conclusion is that FSD beta requires driver supervision and interventions. It is not driverless.
     
  6. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    The data that I see in all the video's is saying that Tesla is making lots of improvement and the improvement is visible across releases.
    The context of this conversation is to show that "Tesla has zero. Nil. None. 0." FSD miles is a complete lie.

    As for aggregate stats, that is for Tesla to provide.
     
  7. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks.

    Yes, Tesla is making progress. Absolutely. But I paid for FSD, hoping and expecting to get a driverless car, not a car that still requires me to watch and intervene.

    And yes, Tesla should provide aggregate stats. That was my earlier point. I want to see aggregate stats so that I can make a more objective determination of how close Tesla is to "true FSD" (ie driverless)?
     
  8. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    I know.


    Cool story... why are you changing the subject?

    Yes, and what you paid for said it would be a process...
    Whether it is 2016 or today
    Autopilot (2016)
    Autopilot (today)

    2016
    upload_2021-1-7_11-11-21.png

    Today
    upload_2021-1-7_11-12-25.png
     
  9. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    #529 diplomat33, Jan 7, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2021
  10. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    I do not think you understand how Waymo got those "FSD" miles of theirs or you must be deluded to believe that their disengagements were not performed by a safety driver.
     
  11. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    Not what I am saying but what Tesla has been saying since 2016.
    The only problem is that you assume that "Tesla has zero. Nil. None. 0." and we've proven that your assumption is idiotic at best.
     
  12. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Krafcik confirmed on Twitter that he will be at CES2021:

    [​IMG]
     
  13. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Now, now, let's be fair. Tesla did register 12 FSD miles with the CA DMV in 2019. LOL.
     
    • Funny x 1
  14. bmah

    bmah Moderator, Model S/X, California Forums

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    Moderator note: Merged two Waymo threads.

    Bruce.
     
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  15. JJRicks

    JJRicks Member

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    #535 JJRicks, Jan 11, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2021
    For what it's worth, I've seen Waymo's camera wipers in action--got a video of it too if anyone is interested. I think it's already been passed around though
     
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  16. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    #536 diplomat33, Jan 12, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2021
    At 23:26 mark we see that Waymo cars can go outside the geofenced area.



    00:00 Calling car
    00:48 Ride start
    01:10 New UI reaction
    02:09 Riding tips video
    03:10 Unprotected left
    06:38 Unprotected left + distracted(?) driver
    16:55 Construction zone
    19:01 Weird LiDAR point cloud reflections
    21:32 Unprotected left
    23:26 Will Waymo go outside the service area?
    24:24 Screen recorded example of changing destination with the app
    25:49 Roadside assistance team is lurking
    27:22 VERY tight turn

    Also, Waymo has also added the ability to personalize the car to better find your car when it arrives.

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    Goes way, way, way out of the service area... on a road with ~1000ft left until the deadend.

    :rolleyes:still shadowed by a chase car... Confidence!
     
  18. powertoold

    powertoold Active Member

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    Lots of phantom braking with Waymo, here's one example from 40 to 30 (for no apparent reason):

    At 13:52:
     
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  19. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    #539 diplomat33, Jan 12, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2021
    That's not "lots of phantom braking".

    And so what? Tesla has phantom braking. I don't think any AV has zero phantom braking.
     
  20. powertoold

    powertoold Active Member

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    Oh great, since you mentioned it, there was another phantom braking at 13:45 from 23 to 16.
     
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