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Waymo

Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by Daniel in SD, Oct 5, 2020.

  1. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    So, you cannot prove that he meant last years model, but you are upset at me for showing the price from this years model... did I get that right?

    Maybe we should use the pricing for an S-Class from the year that Waymo came into existence as its own company? /s
    No matter how you slice it even $150k or $200k (for 2021 moderately options S-Class) Waymo has not made real strides in lowering the cost of their "Driver" suite of hardware.

    I did no such thing
    I showed you exactly what I googled -- with the search query in the screenshot!
    upload_2021-1-22_16-2-58.png
     
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  2. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    #582 diplomat33, Jan 22, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2021
    Disagree. The hardware from 4th gen to 5th gen was lowered by 10x. And the hardware only costs $0.30 per mile. So Waymo did make significant strides in lowering cost. It will allow for good profit.

    Remember that Waymo is doing ride-hailing, not selling to consumer. It does not matter if the cars costs $100k each since they are not trying to sell to the consumer. And each robotaxi lasts around 500k miles which will be a lot of revenue over the life of the car. So at $0.30/mile, they can make profit.
     
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  3. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    I think you guys are making a mistake just looking at the total price of a Waymo car. Waymo does not need each car to cost like $30k. They are not selling to the consumer. They are doing ride-hailing. They just need each robotaxi to make a profit over the life of the car. And with hardware only costing $0.30/mile and each robotaxi lasting around 500k miles, each car can make a lot of profit. IMO, $100k per car is not bad for a robotaxi.

    You need to focus on the hardware only costing $0.30 per mile. That is the key number for a ride-hailing robotaxi. Waymo has significantly reduced the cost of the hardware!
     
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  4. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    Even using your 500k miles with $0.30 per mile that is $150k for the car with Waymo Driver. that is still 50% higher than what you wish the price to be... ($100k)
    upload_2021-1-22_16-11-33.png
     
  5. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    I think you are making a mistake by thinking that $150k is competitive when you have Tesla (like the Model Y LR AWD with FSD $62k out the door) as an option for your fleet with a charging network and pretty good idea of maintenance costs (via Tesloop and others posting their fleet data).
     
  6. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Waymo currently charges about $2/mile. if the hardware is only $0.30/mile, Waymo could probably lower their ride price and still have a profit margin per mile.
     
  7. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    I think you are misunderstanding.. that $150k (500k miles $0.30/mile) is the cap-ex cost of the car with Waymo Driver...
    You might be forgetting to include (or choosing to ignore) the actual running and maintenance of a fleet. Op-ex.
     
  8. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    No. I am not forgetting to include maintenance. But $2 - $0.30 still leaves $1.70/mile/car for other costs and some profit. You think all other operating costs will be greater than $1.70/mile/car? I don't.

    If Tesla gets robotaxis, you might be right. But Tesla does not robotaxis.

    It's really apples and oranges. Teslas are great EVs that are fun to drive and have a great driver assist but they are not robotaxis. Waymo has true robotaxis that will offer safe rides in cities.

    Tesla is not a competitor to Waymo. They are very different business models. Tesla will sell great cars with a great driver assist. Waymo will offer ride-hailing in robotaxis in select cities.
     
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  9. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    Elon said FSD would be worth more than $100k. So I fail to see why it is bad that Waymo's true driverless robotaxis would cost $100k or more. That is what Elon said FSD is worth.
     
  10. mspisars

    mspisars Active Member

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    Value of FSD !== price.
    Value of FSD could/might correlate to price.
    At the price of ~$100k for FSD, Tesla would be right there with Waymo, and the value proposition of their product/solution would start to diminish.
    When Lucid announced range and pricing of Air, Tesla responded to make sure the price for current Model S was lower and the announcement of Plaid platform guarantees Tesla's lead in range and performance.

    Same concept will be applied here.
     
  11. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Well-Known Member

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    It seems like Waymo "solution" for L4 is to start with a significantly restricted ODD and then continue to restrict it further when it ends up in spots that it fails:



    So: "don't fix it; restrict it." :eek:
     
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  12. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Waymo says they are planning to add the I-Pace with the 5th generation hardware to the Waymo One fleet in Phoenix as well as expand the I-Pace to more areas. I really look forward to seeing some videos of driverless rides in the I-Pace. The 5th generation should be a lot better than the 4th generation we are seeing in the Pacificas.
     
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  13. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Yes, if and when Tesla and some other competitor have FSD, you can bet that Tesla will be competitive. They control the cost of their supply chain like no other OEM does.
     
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  14. DanCar

    DanCar Active Member

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  15. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think we know how much of that is from Verily and how much is from Waymo.

    But it makes sense for Waymo to show an operating loss right now. Waymo is spending a lot now to develop and build a better FSD. I would remind you that Tesla had an operating loss for years before showing a profit.
     
  16. powertoold

    powertoold Active Member

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    #596 powertoold, Feb 2, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2021
    We don't know, but it's highly unlikely Waymo is bringing in any more than $10 million a quarter for the rides in Chandler. Does Waymo currently have revenue sources other than the rides in Chandler?

    Simple math:
    $10m / $15 per ride average = 666,666 rides per quarter or 7,400 rides per day (doubt they're doing anywhere close to 7,400 money rides per day)
     
  17. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    Yes. They also have Waymo Via.
     
  18. powertoold

    powertoold Active Member

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    Interesting, I wondering if they're generating any revenue from Via while they're still "testing."

    Waymo Via is our autonomous driving solution for moving goods. Currently we are testing Class 8 Heavy duty trucks that are operated by the Waymo Driver in California, Arizona, Texas, and New Mexico. We're also testing local delivery in Arizona with our fleet of autonomously driven Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivans Learn more.

    FAQ – Waymo
     
  19. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Well-Known Member

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    I would think so. Just because they are "testing" doesn't mean they can't make money at the same time. Waymo One is still "testing" but they are charging for the rides. I'd be surprised if they are making these deliveries for free.

    In any case, Waymo One and Waymo Via are two sources of revenue for Waymo.
     
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  20. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Senior Software Engineer

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    This doesn't matter. What actually matters is safety. Will i pay for a system that cost $10k and crashes every 10k miles while the CEO proclaims its the best in the world and it crashing is no big deal. Or pay for a system that cost $15k but is 100x safer than the first system.
     
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