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Waymo

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It seems like it still takes a village to operate a single Waymo. It really hasn't improved much in 2 years... Anyone contemplating the business case for a few minutes can see it's probably never gonna be profitable. At this point, they're probably just waiting for a miracle in machine learning to improve their performance. I still think they're gonna scrap the whole approach within 3 years.
 
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That article has a big mistake in it. The I-Pace does not use up storage space for the computer. The Waymo product manager in the road to autonomy podcast says that the entire trunk is available for storage.

The article is also based on a couple rides on the obsolete 4th Gen Pacifica. It is not a good sample. And most of what they say no longer applies. Waymo has deployed the 5th Gen I-Pace which drives much much better than the 4th Gen. Waymo 5th Gen I-Pace has solved all the issues that they mention in that article.

It seems like it still takes a village to operate a single Waymo. It really hasn't improved much in 2 years... Anyone contemplating the business case for a few minutes can see it's probably never gonna be profitable. At this point, they're probably just waiting for a miracle in machine learning to improve their performance. I still think they're gonna scrap the whole approach within 3 years.

You could not be more wrong. That article was based on the 4th Gen which is outdated. Waymo has made huge progress with the 5th Gen I-Pace. It uses much more advanced NN and ML than the 4th Gen. Waymo has made huge breakthroughs in ML. For example, Waymo recently released their latest NN planner on the 5th Gen. The 5th Gen drives better and in more difficult situations than the 4th Gen and without remote assistance. The 5th Gen hardware is also cheaper than the 4th Gen hardware. It is does not take a village to operate a single Waymo.

Waymo on the 5th Gen I-pace will be hugely successful. They have already deployed fully driverless 5th Gen I-Paces to more areas than the 4th Gen Pacificas. You are going to look as foolish as the Tesla shorts when Waymo expands to even more places next year. Waymo is also developing the new robotaxi vehicle with Geely. When Waymo starts deploying that vehicle to scale, it will be a game changer.
 
Chandler was mapped on their old gen cars, so the 5th gen cars can't drive on it unless they redo the mapping with the 5th gen sensors. My speculation

Since mapping is so easy and cheap according to Waymo, they're probably just too lazy to remap Chandler with the 5th gen cars.

Yes you are speculating and 100% wrong. Waymo does not need to remap for 5th gen.

Why do you keep spreading this nonsense FUD? If you don't know, don't speculate.
 
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That article has a big mistake in it. The I-Pace does not use up storage space for the computer.
Quote from the article:
Waymo is slowly phasing out the Pacifica vans in favor of electric Jaguar I-Pace SUVs, which are smaller overall but do allow access to the trunk.

Waymo has deployed the 5th Gen I-Pace which drives much much better than the 4th Gen.
This makes no sense. Why would they maintain two completely separate code bases?

Gen5 sensors in theory will allow greater safety at highway speeds and in bad weather. But nothing that improves drop-off location selection or the other stuff mentioned in the article.

Waymo 5th Gen I-Pace has solved all the issues that they mention in that article.
Extremely unlikely. Why would they intentionally showcase flawed s/w to journalists if they had a better version available?

It is does not take a village to operate a single Waymo.
It pretty much does today. Some of that is overkill due to their bureaucratic nature, some is needed because the s/w is still in development.

Waymo on the 5th Gen I-pace will be hugely successful. They have already deployed fully driverless 5th Gen I-Paces to more areas than the 4th Gen Pacificas.
Depends on what you mean by deployed. Gen4 has 50 sq miles open to the public, Gen5 has zero. But Gen5 has ~75 sq miles of Trusted Tester (i.e. beta) testing. But Gen4 was internally tested in a bunch of cities, which certainly exceeded 75 sq miles. I've only heard of limited Gen5 testing outside of San Francisco and downtown Phoenix (e.g. a car or two in NYC and some highway testing).

You are going to look as foolish as the Tesla shorts when Waymo expands to even more places next year. Waymo is also developing the new robotaxi vehicle with Geely. When Waymo starts deploying that vehicle to scale, it will be a game changer.
It's been the same song for 5+ years. They don't have a workable business model. The Geely car doesn't fix that. Maybe they can get the business to work in SF. If so they'll scale, at least there. If not they won't.
 
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Quote from the article:
Waymo is slowly phasing out the Pacifica vans in favor of electric Jaguar I-Pace SUVs, which are smaller overall but do allow access to the trunk.

I was referring to this line which implies the I-Pace also takes up storage for the computer.

"Both vehicles use an extensive array of cameras and sensors to collect information about their surroundings and the robust computer system that runs them takes up storage space in both vehicles."
 
This makes no sense. Why would they maintain two completely separate code bases?

Gen5 sensors in theory will allow greater safety at highway speeds and in bad weather. But nothing that improves drop-off location selection or the other stuff mentioned in the article.

Extremely unlikely. Why would they intentionally showcase flawed s/w to journalists if they had a better version available?

I agree that it is unlikely that Waymo is maintaining two separate code bases. But how do you explain that the 5th Gen drives so much better than the 4th gen? Is the massive improvement from 4th Gen to 5th Gen simply because of the newer sensors or is the improvement also from better software?

Depends on what you mean by deployed. Gen4 has 50 sq miles open to the public, Gen5 has zero. But Gen5 has ~75 sq miles of Trusted Tester (i.e. beta) testing. But Gen4 was internally tested in a bunch of cities, which certainly exceeded 75 sq miles. I've only heard of limited Gen5 testing outside of San Francisco and downtown Phoenix (e.g. a car or two in NYC and some highway testing).

By deployed, I mean driverless rides for the public. The 4th Gen is only driverless to the public in Chandler. The 5th Gen is driverless in downtown Phoenix and SF.

Waymo is also testing the 5th Gen for 6 months in Bellevue, WA. Waymo to test autonomous vehicles during rain in Bellevue, Was...


It's been the same song for 5+ years. They don't have a workable business model. The Geely car doesn't fix that. Maybe they can get the business to work in SF. If so they'll scale, at least there. If not they won't.

Waymo is focused on solving autonomous driving and the logistics of ride-hailing (pick up and drop offs) first. But I am confident Waymo will have a good business model.
 
The vans can carry more people.

Yes. But I suspect when the Geely vans are deployed, they will replace the Pacificas. The Geely vans will fit the same role as the Pacificas. Waymo says that they have no plans to replace the Pacificas but personally, once the Geely van is ready, I see no reason why Waymo would continue using the obsolete 4th Gen Pacificas.

Can you sit in the front passenger seat in the I Pace?

No, I don't think so.
 
Waymo plans to use the Geely vans without steering wheels? When I look at the Van in the Waymo pictures it has no steering controls.

Depending on regulations, Waymo may be required to add steering controls in the Geely van, at least in the beginning. But yes, it will be designed for a "no steering wheel" mode. Waymo wants to deploy it with no steering wheel at some point.

Has Waymo said when they plan to make a profit. 5 years 10 years from now.

Nobody can know that yet. But Waymo is working hard to solve the problems needed to make a profit as soon as possible.