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Discussion in 'Future Cars' started by gavine, Dec 13, 2014.
We Hear: Slew of German EVs Will Battle Tesla Model S
I'll believe it when I see it.
I think it'll happen eventually and probably sooner than most people think. This is what Tesla wants and the world needs.....other car companies making electric cars.
I hope so too, but I'm not seeing any real evidence of it. They all seem to think what people REALLY want is something with a tiny battery and an exhaust pipe. I beg for the day when someone will ACTUALLY make a true competitor to the Model S. So far, not even close. As I said, I'll believe it when I see it. I hope it happens. I'd love to see more fully electric vehicles on the roads. There's plenty of room in this club and I welcome all comers.
At this point that article is just speculation. There are currently no real Model S competitors and I doubt there will be any for at least two years, and by that I mean mass produced full size sedan EVs with a real world range of 200 miles or more.
I'll be interested when it's "We See".
I'm not sure it's what tesla wants if they establish their own charger network and battery facilities.
Tesla opened their patents for a reason.
I suspect more plug in hybrids to follow in the next 2 years, but I doubt we'll see a Model S competitor before that time.
It will be a minimum of 5 years before we see a realistic competitor. There will be some to make a try at a decent competitor but I guarantee that they will fail in some important metric. Tesla is superior in so many ways but here are some critical ones: Range, quickness, price, user interface, customer service, over the air updates, and lastly Supercharging.
I expect that there will be a few plug-ins with a smaller battery pack that will be very good that are made before 5 years but they will always be hampered by a gas engine.
It is actually remarkable, considering the multi-billion German Mark investments in ICE technology. Then again, the Germans are adamant to reduce their dependence on import oil, particularly Russian.
Quite so. People often forget that buying a Tesla is about more than just the car: its the whole package, from the showroom experience to customizing online to the sc network. The Germans haven't even begun to address these attributes.
Exactly. The Germans are making short-range BEVs, an EREV and PHEVs.
But, do not assume that they _wouldn't_ make a long-range BEV. Just remember that since they have ICEs they don't have to be aggressive with BEVs, so they'll be waiting for better, cheaper cell tech.
From all indications, LG will have a higher density pack in a couple of years (which is the basis for GM 200 mile car). Many OEMs have already designed their new platforms to be made as ICE or plugin or EV. So it is not a stretch to see more 200+ mile EVs in a couple of years.
As usual questions remain around charging network, price and most importantly commitment.
In Europe I think the charging network problem will be overcome with public money. The political systems allows it. In the US it will be a much tougher problem to crack.
Excellent point. I agree. I believe that traditional automobile manufacturers will want the battery technology to come down a whole lot more than absolutely necessary though. What Tesla Motors was able to accomplish at somewhere between $180-to-$240 per kWh, traditional automobile manufacturers may not attempt until sufficient quantities of batteries are available at $18-to-$24 per kWh. And that will take a long while, indeed.
Rumor has it that GM may follow a route similar to that which made the Chevrolet Volt and outgrowth of the Cruze platform. Thus, the rumored 200 mile range electric car would be a modified version of the Sonic platform, possibly to be named the Bolt. Maybe it would be fully electric, but there is a strong chance it too would be a plug-in hybrid. If that's the case, then an improved battery pack, used in a smaller car, would be enough to manage perhaps 70-to-100 miles of electric range. It would again be a 2+2 seating configuration, and would have limited cargo capacity, and would probably debut at a $35,000-to-$40,000 price point.
I think it is plain that the EPA will not allow electric cars to be rated at 200+ miles of range unless they have at least a 60 kWh battery pack. Their energy efficiency ratings for electric vehicles included a presumed loss by way of induction during charging. Their range results seem to consistently equal around 90% of what should be actually possible with a full charge, for an electric car that is fully charge.
So a car that operates at ~320 Wh per mile is rated as if it uses ~380 Wh per mile... Then it's range is calculated as if you use that higher rate using only part of the battery pack. Essentially, this means that if you want to attain a certain EPA range rating, you must be sure to include enough battery capacity to have an actual range of 20%-to-25% more than your actual target. That's why I believe the Tesla Model ☰ will have a battery pack with an estimated 250 mile range, and an EPA range rating a bit lower, maybe 225 miles instead.
So really, all those headlines slavvering over the German (vapourware to now) "Tesla Killers!" should have been more accurately named "Prius Killers!"
In other News this Unicorn was seen roaming the forests of Southern Germany on New Years Eve!
There was a 30% fudge factor, but that was because up to the 2012 model year, EV manufacturers were allowed to use the old 2-cycle test, and lop off 30% to approximate the 5-cycle test results.
There's no EPA trickery.
Charge to manufacturer-advised (which is why Nissan and Tesla abandoned their "normal" modes) charge level and run through the test cycles until the car stops.
The manufacturer can use whatever charging method they want, which will no doubt be the most efficient method.
The drive cycles include warm and cold temperature (though not _really_ cold) operation.
Highway test includes some hard acceleration, but at a relatively low average speed.
So, you can beat the rated range in good conditions and if you don't drive too fast, but don't expect anything like it in harsh conditions with any significant climate control use.
I know it's not 'competition' but the VW e-Golf is a damn fine EV for a commuter.. And a great alternative for those who can't afford a model S but want a driver's car. So if this is the start of the German move to EV's it's not a bad one, just a small step, and like some have said, it's what Elon and Tesla want! For the bigger guys to start stepping up! I enjoy my e-golf! nearly 5,000 miles on it since November 2014 and loving every gas free minute of it! Sure it's still just a sub 100 mile car, but for 26K after rebates!
It's just that I've noticed the traditional automobile manufacturers continue to use the same color palette on electric cars: white, silver, black, blue, and sometimes orange. Does anyone know why they are 'branding' their electric compliance cars that way?