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Website wait times for delivery change

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Chickenlittle, May 14, 2014.

  1. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    I have no idea how to interpret this but the order car page used to estimate wait time for delivery of new order these have been removed and only priority given to p85 car left. Has it lengthened with increased demand or shortened with increased production? Do they believe those estimates not useful? I hope not people will need estimate of time before they order. I believe this will be important clue to stock price when clarified
     
  2. Bgarret

    Bgarret Model S ownin' Michigan scofflaw

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    Not sure either. I had been watching for a few weeks, somewhat obsessively designing and redesigning the S before I ordered the X. It seemed to me to be lengthening out, with P85's at Late June in late March/Early April and S85s and 60s at the end of July during the same time frame. Something to consider is that there has been an appreciable spike in Model X reservations as tabulated on TMC, it would be interesting if there has been a similar spike in Model S reservations. (?)
     
  3. Vger

    Vger Active Member

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    It may just be due to lawyering, without a fundamental cause. Tesla is a pretty big target now, and so they are starting to get more defensive in their public language. Sad, but probably true.
     
  4. dalalsid

    dalalsid Member

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    It also might be that someone at Tesla read the BS about slowing US demand based on the delivery times not changing as deliveries dropped and they must have been blindsided by that at the earnings call.
     
  5. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    I don't think so. First week in July 2nd line come on. Cars ordered now will be affected by that event. I suspect it relates more to that
     
  6. pGo

    pGo Member

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    The estimated time is still mentioned where they show prices. P85 delivery is estimated at late July. Nothing has changed but the UI of the page.
     
  7. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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    Looked again, under order tab chose the battery, model option wait tem gone only priority listed under p85. Perhaps you are looking elsewhere?
     
  8. pGo

    pGo Member

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  9. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

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  10. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    August, I was about to say how quickly the July window filled up being that someone on the delivery tracker ordered an S85 on 4/28 and got June for his estimated month. Then I remembered that July production is only 2 weeks long due to the new line. In any event wait times are not decreasing.
     
  11. green1

    green1 Active Member

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    If anything, this looks to be an improvement in accuracy from a generic guess of a couple months, to an actual month they are booking in.
     
  12. Auzie

    Auzie Tree Hugger Member

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  13. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    No, you have to turn that stuff off. What that is is the cost of the lease minus costs you would have if you chose an ICE instead such as higher fuel costs.
     
  14. aznt1217

    aznt1217 Active Member

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    wow so now all of them are August->late August
     
  15. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    Plus RHD cars have been delayed I saw on the delivery thread. I'm not getting really excited until I see them slip into September in less than 2 weeks. Although there never actually was a 2 1/2 month wait for the P85, it was always 1-2 months. Plus 2 1/2 months gets you to August 1st. If they really mean mid-August that is a 3 month wait for a P85. Even if you subtract the 2 weeks the line is shutting down in July this is a strong sign of demand.
     
  16. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

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    Wow! That IS a demand increase. I hadn't seen a P85 be greater than 1-2 months either.

    On the other hand, could this just be the timings of the quarters as well? Since June is end of quarter, so ordering now, and you won't get in the end of quarter push, so you defacto get bumped into August since July is likely to be trying to fill as many overseas orders as they can? Just a guess...
     
  17. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    And they are shutting down for 2 weeks in July so that obviously will cause further delay.
     
  18. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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    Depending by how much the factory will ramp-up production after the shutdown and launch of the second line, on a balance, it could actually speed things up a bit...
     
  19. uselesslogin

    uselesslogin Enthusiast

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    Right, though if we assume production is around 700/week and they shut down for 2 weeks that is 1400 cars not produced. If we assume they then start the line up at 1,000/week that is 300 more cars per week which would take 5 weeks, into late August, to catch up. So if those are the numbers it sort of explains the extra wait time for anyone not getting their car in June.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Ummm... while I don't feel like figuring out how to do screenshots how about someone else do it. 2 weeks ago you could get the car by the end of June. Now, well, take a look.
     
  20. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Active Member

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    Note, though, that US production allocation is not all 700 cars/week, probably more like half of it. Because calculation is based on US wait times, we should use US production allocation, not the total production.
     

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