Website wait times for delivery change

[RobStark]

Wasn't the S60 10% of cars sold world wide?

 

[Papafox]

The current price you pay for the upgrade is 667$/kWh and since that is all you are paying for now to go from 70D to 85D that is quite a cost. Consider previously that a 10k upgrade was for not just a bigger battery (25kWh upgrade) but also for Supercharging (they got rid of the tire upgrade a while ago). So this seems like more reason to think that the 85 will be going away to be replaced by a larger pack. Otherwise the 70D - 85D just became a horribly expensive upgrade. This could be the reason for the huge uptake in the 70D as consumers realize it likely isn't worth the 10k. I bet orders for the 85 and 85D fell through the floor.

Anyone looking at an 85D instead of a 70D is doing so primarily for the greater horsepower and greater acceleration. I don't know if you've driven the 70D and 85D, but the 85D is much quicker. It's a real thrill to stomp the 85D's accelerator pedal. I think the market for 85Ds will be people who can't justify the P85D but want to impress their friends with the acceleration. I would agree with you, though, that the additional range between the 70D and 85D would not be worth the cost if the performance between the the cars was similar.

BTW, One week after placing the order for my 70D my order confirmed (yesterday) and today the delivery estimate changed from June to late May. I suspect the factory in Freemont is humming like never before and 70Ds for U.S. customers are in the fast lane.

 

[breser]

Anyone looking at an 85D instead of a 70D is doing so primarily for the greater horsepower and greater acceleration. I don't know if you've driven the 70D and 85D, but the 85D is much quicker. It's a real thrill to stomp the 85D's accelerator pedal. I think the market for 85Ds will be people who can't justify the P85D but want to impress their friends with the acceleration. I would agree with you, though, that the additional range between the 70D and 85D would not be worth the cost if the performance between the the cars was similar.

Seriously, there are still going to be people that will pay $10k more just for 30 miles more range. Tesla obviously decided to bump the 85D performance to help justify the cost (and also help limit complaints from existing 85D owners). So I'll give you that the decision to get an 85D based on range isn't entirely rationale. But there's still plenty of people that think they need a 300+ mile range.

 

[pGo]

All needles moved for US today.

All D's -> Late June delivery.
S85 -> June delivery.

S85 still with the closest delivery date. I am thinking time is running out for S85 and June may be the end of it.

 

[maoing]

China moved to August. It looks the demand is picking up after 70D release.

 

[jhm]

All needles moved for US today.

All D's -> Late June delivery.
S85 -> June delivery.

S85 still with the closest delivery date. I am thinking time is running out for S85 and June may be the end of it.

Wow, with the 85 passing, that would be the end of the original line up. Who knew that obsolescence could come in just 3 years? When do they become a collector's item?

 

[MikeC]

Wow, with the 85 passing, that would be the end of the original line up. Who knew that obsolescence could come in just 3 years? When do they become a collector's item?

Obsolete, yet somehow still more advanced than any other manufacturer's car on the road today.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Wow, with the 85 passing, that would be the end of the original line up. Who knew that obsolescence could come in just 3 years? When do they become a collector's item?

The S85 isn't dead yet! (well, not quite).

 

[jhm]

Obsolete, yet somehow still more advanced than any other manufacturer's car on the road today.

Absolutely, the auto industry just got served all over again. Reminds me of how less than a year ago some anti-Tesla talking head was saying how the Model S was getting long in the tooth. I'm really looking forward to the Model X putting all SUVs on notice.

- - - Updated - - -

The S85 isn't dead yet! (well, not quite).

Classic, just like Blueberry, the S85 I bought new just last month. Sure, I could do better now, but she's got a heart of gold.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

All needles moved for US today.

All D's -> Late June delivery.
S85 -> June delivery.

S85 still with the closest delivery date. I am thinking time is running out for S85 and June may be the end of it.

actually happened yesterday afternoon.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Just to follow-up on posts by Maoing, pGo and LargeHamCollider, after checking the local Tesla sites, the updated Tables are included below.

It is interesting that expected deliveries for 85 in Japan and Hong Kong changed from September and late September to August and late July respectively It looks like either 85 got prioritized at the factory, of a lot of people changing 85 reservation in favor of 70D (or combination of the two).

 

[blakegallagher]

Just to follow-up on posts by Maoing, pGo and LargeHamCollider, after checking the local Tesla sites, the updated Tables are included below.

It is interesting that expected deliveries for 85 in Japan and Hong Kong changed from September and late September to August and late July respectively It looks like either 85 got prioritized at the factory, of a lot of people changing 85 reservation in favor of 70D (or combination of the two).

View attachment 80051

I know in Tesla's home region the uptake on the 70D has been very high. A good friend just got hired on at Tesla (Yea!) and the regional manager said just that. I would not be surprised if a lot of people wanted to change over it to the 70D. It really is an amazing car at an amazing price point. One of the store managers was excited about a long list of customers that are very interested in various configurations of cars but could not afford them that the 70D might work for. Is the 70D the "secret weapon" Elon talked about?

As an investor I am a little worried about selling a much higher percentage of "base" models. I guess as the base keeps getting better that is bound to be the case.

Much like computers do nowadays this car is quickly outgrowing the needs of most of the populace

- - - Updated - - -

Wasn't the S60 10% of cars sold world wide?

Yes I believe so. or about 10 percent.

 

[FredTMC]

The S85 isn't dead yet! (well, not quite).

Thx Robert. I love that scene.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

S85 changed from "June" to "late June" yesterday on the U.S. site.

 

[schonelucht]

All European dual drive models moved to August. Interestingly enough, you can still order any Model S in the US and have it delivered in June. Not sure what to make of it. Maybe that's the optimization for operational efficiency rather than quarterly numbers they talked about during the last conference call?

 

[Ingenieur]

All European dual drive models moved to August. Interestingly enough, you can still order any Model S in the US and have it delivered in June. Not sure what to make of it. Maybe that's the optimization for operational efficiency rather than quarterly numbers they talked about during the last conference call?

If you look in German and Norwegian Delivery Excel Lists, the order rate is decreasing since Late 2014, it does not appear to be result of strong demand uptake

 

[Drax7]

If you look in German and Norwegian Delivery Excel Lists, the order rate is decreasing since Late 2014, it does not appear to be result of strong demand uptake

Ingenieur, you are always so truthful, don't you wish at times you were less so?

 

[Ingenieur]

Please look at rolling 4 week average number of order confirmations, for example number of order confirmations in Norway is down 80% vs Q4 Average (yes it was D Event), still not supportive of 1000/Quarter sales going forward.
German confirmations are down ca. 50% vs Q4 average. The trend is still down. The 70D is for countering decreasing demand.

Last Tesla bear on this forum lol

 

[vgrinshpun]

Please look at rolling 4 week average number of order confirmations, for example number of order confirmations in Norway is down 80% vs Q4 Average (yes it was D Event), still not supportive of 1000/Quarter sales going forward.
German confirmations are down ca. 50% vs Q4 average. The trend is still down. The 70D is for countering decreasing demand.

Last Tesla bear on this forum lol

I am not exactly sure what spreadsheets you are referring to as there was no link in the post. It seems to me that you referring to the spreadsheets filled by members of some Forum (Tesla Motor Club?). If that is true, reduction in quantity of entries in such spreadsheets has very loose, if any, association with demand. It is just an indication of the percentage of prospective owners that know about the said spreadsheet and are willing to spend time to add their entry.

 

[uselesslogin]

I am not exactly sure what spreadsheets you are referring to as there was no link in the post. It seems to me that you referring to the spreadsheets filled by members of some Forum (Tesla Motor Club?). If that is true, reduction in quantity of entries in such spreadsheets has very loose, if any, association with demand. It is just an indication of the percentage of prospective owners that know about the said spreadsheet and are willing to spend time to add their entry.

Also if you argue that the reduction of spreadsheet orders indicates a decrease in demand then the US is more that making up for it as we look set to more than double the spreadsheet lines for Q2 on TMC:
Model S Order Delivery - Google Sheets

That being said I would expect some slowdown in Europe after a price hike but it could be a slowdown in growth.