TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Website wait times for delivery change

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Chickenlittle, May 14, 2014.

Tags:
  1. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2013
    Messages:
    5,895
    Location:
    PA
    #721 vgrinshpun, Jan 30, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2016
    The estimated delivery time for Europe, GB and China was updated:
    • European delivery estimate moved out from March to June for 70 and 70D (65 days after previous update)
    • European delivery estimate moved out from March to Late April for 85, 85D and P85D (65 days after previous update)
    • GB delivery estimate moved out from March to June for 70 and 70D (65 days after previous update)
    • European delivery estimate moved out from March to June for 70 and 70D (65 days after previous update)
    • Chinese delivery estimate for 85, 85D and P85D moved out from Late March to April (3 days after previous update)


    Wait Time 01-30-2016.png
     
  2. NicoV

    NicoV Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2016
    Messages:
    1,302
    Location:
    Zulte, Belgium
    Demand doesn't seem to be a problem.
     
  3. Gerardf

    Gerardf Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2013
    Messages:
    1,405
    Location:
    Culemborg, The Netherlands
    #723 Gerardf, Jan 31, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2016
    Could also mean they have reserved a big percentage of the capacity in March, April and May to produce Model-X's to catch up with the large backlog. Would make sense.

    Would be good news for the SP, not just for finally showing they can produce these in numbers, but also because the ASP of these deliveries will be relatively high.
     
  4. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2013
    Messages:
    6,971
    Location:
    Delaware
    I agree. I would think TM wants to whittle down that backlog as priority #1 once they have worked out any issues with the X.
     
  5. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2014
    Messages:
    4,637
    Location:
    Nederland
    The specific reason to push out the 70 could be to set the company up for a big positive cash flow quarter. Comparatively little R&D costs together with a tweaked vehicle mix emphasizing expensive cars could do the trick.
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    7,643
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    And the reason for the backlog is....... because demand is not a problem.
     
  7. Spidy

    Spidy Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2015
    Messages:
    1,337
    Location:
    EU
    Well, we are talking about Model S demand.
     
  8. RobStark

    RobStark Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    7,643
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    They are linked.

    They are not perfect substitutes but there is a significant percentage of the market that considers both.
     
  9. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2013
    Messages:
    5,895
    Location:
    PA
    Estimated delivery time for Australia changed from Late March to Late April, 10 days after the previous update (01/22).

    Wait Time 02-01-2016.png
     
  10. chickensevil

    chickensevil Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2014
    Messages:
    4,139
    Location:
    Virginia, United States
    Is it just me, or does it look like Tesla is trying to backload deliveries yet again for this quarter? Here we are, basically the same place we were at the start of Nov with everything outside of NA kicked to the next quarter. I know we haven't gotten Q1 guidance yet, but might this be an indication that they are trying to push similar numbers as Q4? Given production increases that they should have had on the back half of Q4 if they continued to pull 1200-1400 MS a week over 12 weeks and just about all timed for Q1 delivery (minimal carry over from last quarter so numbers should be roughly indicative of deliveries, no?) That would be 14,400-16,800 plus another ~2k MX and we could be looking at 16-18k deliveries for Q1 which would be awesome! Or am I missing something?
     
  11. stealthology

    stealthology Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2013
    Messages:
    467
    Location:
    Hawaii
    It wouldn't surprise me at all if they're taking S production seriously and aligning the end of Q1 with US deliveries. I say this because I have no doubt they want to be cash flow positive in Q1. The question I have is how Wall St will react to that.
     
  12. lango

    lango Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2015
    Messages:
    388
    Location:
    Germany, EU
    I read somewhere that the old Model S line is still what they are using for S. Anyone that have been on the factory tour or otherwise know the current state feel free to correct me on this :). But in any case, if they indeed use the old S line that has peak capacity of 1200 a week then the problems with X should not affect S at all and 15000 units of S is what that line can do.
     
  13. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2014
    Messages:
    4,637
    Location:
    Nederland
    No, because you can still order a model S for Asia/Europe delivery in April. Those cars are necessarily produced late this quarter. Early November, European/Asian cars were projected for February (May equivalent this quarter), meaning produced early next quarter. Europe/Asia deliveries moved to April simply because the factory is fully booked for this month and the earliest production slot they have is March.
     
  14. Spidy

    Spidy Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2015
    Messages:
    1,337
    Location:
    EU
    #734 Spidy, Feb 2, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2016
    It's not like they delivered zero cars in those months in the past. And it makes no sense. If the factory is fully booked then why didn't the US move, too? Why is there nor normal April delivery for Europe? If Tesla wanted to they could keep the dates for every region the same (unless demand drops to a point below 6 weeks, which seems to be around the minimum delivery time outside the US) But there is not reason to bump Europe from March straight to June unless you want Q1 numbers.

    Maybe there is no 100% focus on numbers like in Q4, but to some extent that certainly seems to be the case.
     
  15. Hogfighter

    Hogfighter Professional Lurker

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2012
    Messages:
    1,040
    Location:
    Florida
    If you're in Europe and want the least expensive vehicle (and also with the least profit margin), then Tesla is putting you in the back of the line. My guess is they are hoping currency rates skew in their favor over time.
     
  16. Chickenlittle

    Chickenlittle Active Member

    Joined:
    Sep 10, 2013
    Messages:
    2,411
    Location:
    Virginia
    Delivery in April to Europe would ruin qtr report. Those cars would be made in March and not delivered till April he Se revenue not booked till second qtr
     
  17. Spidy

    Spidy Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2015
    Messages:
    1,337
    Location:
    EU
    Yes, that is my point. There is not reason to act like this apart from quarter results.
     
  18. schonelucht

    schonelucht Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2014
    Messages:
    4,637
    Location:
    Nederland
    Because shipping takes 4-6 weeks longer for Europe/Asia deliveries compared with a US delivery. With the factory now handing out March production slots that comes down to a March delivery for the US and an April delivery at the earliers everywhere else.

    The difference between April and Late April is small enough that it's anybody's guess. Could be the shipping schedule works out that way, could be the Tilburg factory closes down for the Eastern holidays, etc...

    They could but they never did.

    I agree for the 70D models, if you look a bit earlier I even suggested a reason. But that reason is different (cash flow and margins) than the one chickensevil (total delivery numbers) gave and my argument there is because of 90D availability early in the quarter.
     
  19. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2013
    Messages:
    5,895
    Location:
    PA
    The estimated delivery time for Europe, GB and China was updated:

    • European delivery estimate moved out from Late April to May for 85, 85D and P85D (4 days after previous update)
    • GB delivery estimate moved out from Late April to May for 85, 85D and P85D (4 days after previous update)
    • Chinese delivery estimate for 85, 85D and P85D moved out from April to May (4 days after previous update)

    It seems that there is healthy increase in incoming orders in Europe and China.

    Wait Time 02-04-2016.png
     
  20. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Apr 5, 2013
    Messages:
    5,895
    Location:
    PA
    Another update, this time for Europe, GB and Hong Kong:
    • European delivery estimate moved out from May to Late May for 85, 85D and P85D (2 days after previous update)
    • GB delivery estimate moved out from May to Late May for 85, 85D and P85D (2 days after previous update)
    • Hog Kong delivery estimate moved out from April to May for 85, 85D and P85D (11 days after previous update)

    The swift movement in delivery estimates for Europe is encouraging. While steady state Eropean demand is about 35% of total, the production is currently almost entirely dedicated to building European cars to make sure that Q1 deliveries of MS are at least equal or exceed quantity of cars produced during the Q1. Since historic steady state incoming orders (35% of total orders) are currently pulled from the European backlog at the much higher rate (may be 80-90%), one could assume that projected delivery times would not move out so quickly - by one month in just four days, unless there is uptick of incoming orders or slow down in production. IMO slow down in production of MS is highly unlikely, which leaves uptick in European demand as a likely explanation.

    Wait Time 02-06-2016.png
     

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.
  • Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


    SUPPORT TMC