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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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Estimated delivery time for Hong Kong for 90D and P90D moved out from May to Late May (15 days after the previous update)
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It actually is not surprising - just a consequence of Tesla trying to deliver all vehicles built in Q1 during the Q1. See this post for more detailed explanation.
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It actually is not surprising - just a consequence of Tesla trying to deliver all vehicles built in Q1 during the Q1. See this post for more detailed explanation.
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Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
This does seem like the cadence now....to frontload each quarter with overseas deliveries, then the priority shifts back to U.S. towards the end of the quarter.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Thanks V, you're one of the reasons why I visit TMC. Please don't stop the outstanding effort.
chickensevil
Active Member
I'm sure it is a product of them shifting back to backloading the quarter's deliveries and the higher rate of production. Because even when they used to somewhat time to end of quarter, I seem to recall the wait ever falling to maybe 1 month for maybe just the performance version.
Either, the GM is such that they don't care anymore about delivering lower models, or they have just changed their ethos to stop caring about performance vs normal and base models... Now, pushing as close to the end as 2-3 weeks from end of month (pushback happening on the 12th) is also a bit of a change as well which I am assuming is a product of them having higher volume. So they likely would need to generate more US demand if they really wanted to ensure that they are pushing as much out at the end of the quarter as possible.
This issue could easily be solved more by just going back to filling a pipeline and rebalancing all dates back out to roughly equal lead times like they did essentially for all of 2015 minus Q4
- Estimated delivery time for NA (all variants) moved out from Late March to April. Given that production is currently likely fully allocated to building NA orders, and that historically automobile sales are lighter during this part of the year, this is a very strong indication that the rate of incoming NA orders is very high. For comparison, during the Q4 the estimated delivery time moved out to the next (Q1) quarter 10 days later - on December 12th.
- Estimated delivery time for Chinese orders moved out from May to Late May (90D, P90D)
p.s.: I'll update the tables after returning from vacation this weekend.
chickensevil
Active Member
Wasn't production to be a little lighter this Q over the last? I mean I know it always drops a bit Q4 to Q1 because there is like one less week in the quarter.
Not saying that demand isn't strong, just that with a slightly lower rate this quarter some of that could be caused by that rate change and demand would just be holding steady ish... Which is still a success in my book since as you say early months in the year are typically lower in the car industry and Tesla dramatically upped their numbers for Q4 so that likely put a bit of a strain on demand potential.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Q4 2015 17.4k delivered. Guidance said approximately 2k less production. Don't know if they disclosed production.
Q1 2016 guidance is for 16k deliveries with one week less in the quarter. Anybody's guess as to how much is left in the pipeline to empty.
I don't know how much left in the pipeline to empty.
Did anyone verify if California delivery times moved out as well? Last quarter they kept them on December for 2 more days. 16k deliveries of which 2k are Model X leaves us with 14k Model S deliveries this quarter or down 3250 from last quarter. 1250 on account of one week less of production and 2000 on account of emptying/refilling the pipeline would be my guess.
Last quarter they produced 13.5k model S. Assuming they are not refilling the pipeline at this point and that the full shift in wait time is due to demand outpacing production, this 10 days earlier switch over would indicate total quarterly model S demand of around 15k.
Last quarter they produced 13.5k model S. Assuming they are not refilling the pipeline at this point and that the full shift in wait time is due to demand outpacing production, this 10 days earlier switch over would indicate total quarterly model S demand of around 15k.
I think any reduction in the quarter would be due to the 1 week (or 2 week?) shutdown in January for tooling changes - I don't think it would be affecting production now in the last month.
chickensevil
Active Member
It wasn't about it holding in the last month, it's about it holding the entire quarter. You still have that week (weeks?) of shutdown while people are still placing orders for the car. You just might not feel the affects of that until the end of the quarter when they are forced to push out the dates 1 or 2 weeks sooner than last quarter, that was all I was potentially implying here.
Essentially if the demand levels were at say 16,000 last quarter, and they remained at that same level this quarter, but the expectation was for only 14,000 then you have a 2k surplus in demand that can't be satisfied this quarter. Just throwing numbers out as an example as I don't recall the real numbers for each quarter.
Note this is not a negative at all, because it shows that this wasn't just a 1 off situation. Also note that the incentives for this quarter to drive sales haven't really been all there too much other than maybe in China. So here we are holding strong sans major referral programs... unless I am missing something there? This might also be why this time around the referral program had a much smaller window of opportunity and wasn't nearly as strong of a program for incentives, because they knew the rates would be a bit lower this quarter and don't want to pointlessly drive up demand.
All in all, I combine this into a good feeling that they can likely hit 70k+ Model S this year if they really wanted to which should put it neck and neck on the global sales level of the competition, the MB S Class, which is what I am hoping to see for 2016!
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