Tesla said they prioritice China before Europe on Model X. Maybe because of this, the longer wait time for newer orders, make the eary adopters more happy. With the Model S, we had some unhappy reservation holders, with locations far from SC, that got their cars long after the first deliveries. As I have understod it, "Face value" is important in China.
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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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Tesla said they prioritice China before Europe on Model X. Maybe because of this, the longer wait time for newer orders, make the eary adopters more happy. With the Model S, we had some unhappy reservation holders, with locations far from SC, that got their cars long after the first deliveries. As I have understod it, "Face value" is important in China.
MX US wait time moved out to late September which makes MX almost sold out for next quarter.
Thank you, pGo!
There were several updates to the delivery projections, I kept up with updating my tables, but did not post for a while. Table below summarizes updates on 6-09, 6-13 and 6-17-2016
There were several updates to the delivery projections, I kept up with updating my tables, but did not post for a while. Table below summarizes updates on 6-09, 6-13 and 6-17-2016
- MS: Estimated delivery time for Australia (60/75 and 60D/75D) moved out from September to October (37 days after the previous update).
- There were few notable updates for Model X estimated delivery times: GB now shows specific estimated time of December, and delivery estimates for Americas (including Mexico) now show Late September. I want to causion against using estimated wait time for MX as an indication of the backlog. Since not all models are mass shipping, and deliveries do not cover all geographical areas, estimated delivery times are not representative of the backlog in a way they are for Model S.
dennis
Model S Plaid
I am interested in your thinking behind the above statement. If the factory is cranking out 800-1000 MX per week and a new order for the US can't be delivered before September doesn't that imply that Tesla has 6400-8000 confirmed orders in hand already for Q3 delivery? (Regardless of the geographical or model mix)
Thank you, SBenson!
- MS: Estimated delivery time for NA moved out from July to August (20 days after the previous update). This is a very good sign, as this change comes after the several weeks period when MS were almost exclusively built for NA, for a rate which is about 2 times the total US allocation (about 52% cars sold in NA, but 100% of the production was allocated to building NA cars). So the rate of incoming orders was exceeding the total production of the Model S, while NA allocation is only about 52% of total production. The above is based on assumption that there is no reduction in the Model S production, which is almost certainly true, especially in the light of the latest analyst note from RBC.
- MS: Estimated delivery time for Australia (60/75 and 60D/75D) moved out from October to Late October (11 days after the previous update)
- MS: Estimated delivery time for Australia (90D and P90D) moved out from September to Late September (39 days after the previous update)
While it's pretty sensibly to assume increased demand from the addition of the low cost 60 model, I think we should wait for the next update on international delivery times before drawing conclusions. Europe and China are at a somewhat shorter wait time than last quarter (June and end of June versus late August and September) Unless these don't move out soon (next couple of days) it may simple be that Tesla is weaning itself of the heavy batching and mixing in more international orders sooner rather than later. That would be consistent with an increase in the cars in the pipeline as guided for this quarter. Another unknown to us is a possible tooling upgrade to the factory in July. If that is in the cards it may also explain a temporary run out on the delivery wait time.
First time I have seen someone going from confirm to delivery in less than 3 weeks . It's not a fluke either. The thread has a few other posters who have a slightly longer turn around time but with transport to Florida included.
I did not see any data to suggest that Tesla switched to building European cars before the end of the Q2, when it is supposed to. In fact according to their shareholder's letter guidance it is the opposite, they are maximizing deliveries of cars produced in April through June in Q2: "In Q2, we expect to produce about 20,000 vehicles, representing a sequential increase of nearly 30%, and will deliver as many of these cars as we can in Q2, with the rest being delivered in Q3". The difference in projected deliveries of 17K and produced 20K cars was a contingency they chose to address the uncertainty with the ramp of Model X, so has nothing to do with the MS. Since they could not have predicted exactly when they complete the tuning of the production for MX, and did not want to start shipping MX overseas before this happened, there was a risk that they could have started to ship MX in Q2, but too late to deliver them to Europe and China in Q2.
So I believe that steady increase in NA wait time for MS (since May 19th), as I mentioned, specifically through the time when factory is building exclusively NA cars, is indicative of the substantial pick up in incoming orders.
Since 5/19 the NA wait time for MS increased by two weeks, and, as I mentioned, virtually all of the factory capacity during this time was dedicated to NA cars. So even if Tesla switches to steady proportional allocation of the production during the Q3, in order for numbers to work in a way that supports this theory the Q3 tooling shutdown has to be 2 x 2 = 4 weeks (approx. 50% NA allocation) - an impossibility.
Cars that are projected to be delivered in August in NA are produced in Q3 and therefore do compete with overseas production slots. Even end of July cars will be produced in Q3. And since we are not seeing different delivery times for California this time around like we used to do, it's fairly possible that Tesla switched to overseas orders already for the last weeks of Q2. So no, just looking at NA is not enough to know what is happening right now, we need to look at overseas deliveries too.
If we compare with the end of last quarter, delivery time for NA was May, it's August now for about a week. Europe was June already for more than a month, it's only just now turned to September. China was Late June while it's only September now. I see a shortening of the European wait times in balance with a widening of the NA delivery times. To me it seems NA deliveries are about a week later than last quarter while overseas orders are between two weeks and a month earlier. That's consistent with less severe batching and I believe also that's a long term company goal. So before we dismiss that possibility and assume it must be that NA demand slots outpace NA production slots I'd want to wait how long it takes overseas delays to move to the end of the quarter. If that happens soon, I agree with you. If it doesn't then I think that puts more stock in the reduced batching theory.
dc_h
Active Member
Will Panama Canal opening allow faster Europe deliveries? Train switching in Chicago seems to hold up rail deliveries by a couple of weeks. If ships are 30 mph, getting around N America is only a week.
Any logistics experts?
Any logistics experts?
- MS: Estimated delivery time for Americas moved from August to September (8 days after the previous update
- MS: Estimated delivery time for Hong Kong moved from September to late September (40 days after the previous update)
Perfectlogic
Member
I'm happy to see my predictions from the whole demand discussion last month was completely on point. Like I said Tesla would have to do pull out any aces they may have had in their sleeve and lo and behold perhaps the largest push for demand we have seen so far with both the $1000 discount and reinstating the 60 kwh model. Their chances of meeting the low end of guidance certainly went up significantly, but it also means lower margins for longer. I think it is pretty safe to assume Tesla didn't think they would have been able to meet guidance without the 60, otherwise it wouldn't make sense to introduce a lower cost lower margin product.
The gross margin guidance they gave in the Q1 shareholder's letter included introduction of 60 - 25% for MX, 30% for MS by the end of the year. So your "concern" is misplaced.
Regarding the demand, their incoming orders of MS in Q1 were up 45% YoY - more than enough to meet lower end of the guidance. The re-introduction of 60 coincides with them completing the MX ramp-up and now capable to take production above 2000 cars/week in H2. The re-introduction of 60 will allow them to increase total production to the rate above 100K/per year.
As usual, the screen name not withstanding, your logic is less than perfect.
Perfectlogic
Member
Did they explicitly say that in the Q1 letter or is it just pure speculation?
I have already explained 100 times to you why this is nonsense.
Their capacity is expected to increase to 2k/week from Q3 yes, and that is why they needed the 60 and $1000 discount as boost in demand to fill that capacity. That is what I'm saying.
If they can sell at that pace is yet to be proven, but they will need to in order to meet guidance.
As usual, the screen name not withstanding, your logic is less than perfect.
I was the one who just predicted what would happen remember? You don't insult the guy who turned out to be right, that is not how it works.
Thanks. This is bullish. I have not seen wait time increasing like this in a long time.
Perfectlogic
Member
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