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In the US, MS is now late Sept. Anyone catch which day is switched over? I believe it was still just Sept last week, no?
All US delivery estimates have moved to December. I was very skeptical of Tesla hitting their 80k target, am much less skeptical after the last few days.
I just noticed this as well. The jump from late October just a couple of days ago is interesting, as it might indicate building up of backlog again - may be I need to start updating my tables again...
I noted the jump too, my thought was that November will be taken by batches of international cars... of course I can't verify this though...
We need to watch for the reports about factory tours to possibly discover in real time whether October shutdown is going to be one week, as planned, or longer.
Well, coincidentally I have a tour scheduled later this week. I pinged Tesla on this point (did not want to see an empty factory!) and while the response was not 100% definitive, it sounds highly unlikely that the factory is shutdown this week, which is the rumor I had seen. I should be able to confirm later this week if it is still an open question by then.
This is great! Please try to ask question about timing/duration of the factory shutdown during the tour. This could be very valuable information!
We need to watch for the reports about factory tours to possibly discover in real time whether October shutdown is going to be one week, as planned, or longer.
I was thinking the same. You want to build US Inventory cars early to have them on the lot and ready to sell. It's easer to sell those in November and early December rather than late December. Meanwhile delivering a custom order later in December might work out better.My best guess for Tesla production planning :
This is consistent with all current delivery estimate times, consistent with the couple of weeks less in the quarter remark and consistent with @EinSV getting a tour this week.
- October and first two weeks of November : production for overseas custom orders/inventory and US inventory, includes one week of factory shutdown possibly week of veteran's day?
- Last two weeks of November and first week of December : US custom orders
- Third week of December : California custom orders
- Last week of December : factory shutdown
I was thinking the same. You want to build US Inventory cars early to have them on the lot and ready to sell. It's easer to sell those in November and early December rather than late December. Meanwhile delivering a custom order later in December might work out better.
Also having the Inventory cars build earlier allows Tesla to put some miles on them and they have a justification to discount them. Especially if they build them in October they can give a 2 month discount in December.
I know I didn't type this - but I have many time in the past. However, we saw in Q2 that inventory Vin # blocks were issued in what looks like July and August ready for the USA September sales event that happened. This means that perhaps blocks of Vin #s now are already laid out to be built for late Q4 inventory placement in November and December. I believe inventory for Europe has already landed in Tilburg for Q4. Normally, someone says they placed an order for Europe delivery and they get it about 3-months later. So, essentially, they would need to build Europe inventory 2-3 months ahead of time (ie. late September into early October for year-end). And so Mario K. here said he heard that Tilburg had a huge number of cars arrive in Tilburg recently. I suppose we should look for those showing up on the ev-cpo.com consolidator soon.
Scientologists don't defend their cause as much as you do, it appears.
Dude those cars were the ones delivered at the end of Q3... It's incredible unlikely that Tesla build Inventory for Europe that would arrive early October (maybe some custom cars intended for September delivery that didn't make it in time), when at that time cars could have been build to go on sale in the US in Q3. I don't expect many Inventory cars to show up in Europe before late November.I know I didn't type this - but I have many time in the past. However, we saw in Q2 that inventory Vin # blocks were issued in what looks like July and August ready for the USA September sales event that happened. This means that perhaps blocks of Vin #s now are already laid out to be built for late Q4 inventory placement in November and December. I believe inventory for Europe has already landed in Tilburg for Q4. Normally, someone says they placed an order for Europe delivery and they get it about 3-months later. So, essentially, they would need to build Europe inventory 2-3 months ahead of time (ie. late September into early October for year-end). And so Mario K. here said he heard that Tilburg had a huge number of cars arrive in Tilburg recently. I suppose we should look for those showing up on the ev-cpo.com consolidator soon.