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Website wait times for delivery change

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Not sure how useful the estimates from the website really are to estimate backlog. There are now reports of cars going into production 2-3 days after confirmation. That means that someone who orders today and confirms before the 7 day timer runs out, can still expect the car in September. The estimate is now probably just an indicator of 'worst case' rather than representative of the average wait time like it used to be.
 
All US delivery estimates have moved to December. I was very skeptical of Tesla hitting their 80k target, am much less skeptical after the last few days.

I just noticed this as well. The jump from late October just a couple of days ago is interesting, as it might indicate building up of backlog again - may be I need to start updating my tables again...
 
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I noted the jump too, my thought was that November will be taken by batches of international cars... of course I can't verify this though...

Yes, I just checked European delivery estimate - it is still shows November / end of November.

So they might have switched around their plans on batching production and now are trying to set production in a way that will allow to deliver in Q4 more vehicles than was built. There is not much clarity on the reason for a change, though. One reason could be that they were forced to do so as they discover that October factory shutdown might take longer than expected and they are trying to compensate for this by (partially) emptying the pipeline in Q4. Another reason could be that they decided that it is realistic to try to shoot for profitability in Q4 as well...
 
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We need to watch for the reports about factory tours to possibly discover in real time whether October shutdown is going to be one week, as planned, or longer.

Well, coincidentally I have a tour scheduled later this week. I pinged Tesla on this point (did not want to see an empty factory!) and while the response was not 100% definitive, it sounds highly unlikely that the factory is shutdown this week, which is the rumor I had seen. I should be able to confirm later this week if it is still an open question by then.
 
Well, coincidentally I have a tour scheduled later this week. I pinged Tesla on this point (did not want to see an empty factory!) and while the response was not 100% definitive, it sounds highly unlikely that the factory is shutdown this week, which is the rumor I had seen. I should be able to confirm later this week if it is still an open question by then.

This is great! Please try to ask question about timing/duration of the factory shutdown during the tour. This could be very valuable information!
 
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My best guess for Tesla production planning :


  • October and first two weeks of November : production for overseas custom orders/inventory and US inventory, includes one week of factory shutdown possibly week of veteran's day?
  • Last two weeks of November and first week of December : US custom orders
  • Third week of December : California custom orders
  • Last week of December : factory shutdown
This is consistent with all current delivery estimate times, consistent with the couple of weeks less in the quarter remark and consistent with @EinSV getting a tour this week.
 
My best guess for Tesla production planning :


  • October and first two weeks of November : production for overseas custom orders/inventory and US inventory, includes one week of factory shutdown possibly week of veteran's day?
  • Last two weeks of November and first week of December : US custom orders
  • Third week of December : California custom orders
  • Last week of December : factory shutdown
This is consistent with all current delivery estimate times, consistent with the couple of weeks less in the quarter remark and consistent with @EinSV getting a tour this week.
I was thinking the same. You want to build US Inventory cars early to have them on the lot and ready to sell. It's easer to sell those in November and early December rather than late December. Meanwhile delivering a custom order later in December might work out better.

Also having the Inventory cars build earlier allows Tesla to put some miles on them and they have a justification to discount them. Especially if they build them in October they can give a 2 month discount in December.
 
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I was thinking the same. You want to build US Inventory cars early to have them on the lot and ready to sell. It's easer to sell those in November and early December rather than late December. Meanwhile delivering a custom order later in December might work out better.

Also having the Inventory cars build earlier allows Tesla to put some miles on them and they have a justification to discount them. Especially if they build them in October they can give a 2 month discount in December.

I know I didn't type this - but I have many time in the past. However, we saw in Q2 that inventory Vin # blocks were issued in what looks like July and August ready for the USA September sales event that happened. This means that perhaps blocks of Vin #s now are already laid out to be built for late Q4 inventory placement in November and December. I believe inventory for Europe has already landed in Tilburg for Q4. Normally, someone says they placed an order for Europe delivery and they get it about 3-months later. So, essentially, they would need to build Europe inventory 2-3 months ahead of time (ie. late September into early October for year-end). And so Mario K. here said he heard that Tilburg had a huge number of cars arrive in Tilburg recently. I suppose we should look for those showing up on the ev-cpo.com consolidator soon.
 
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I know I didn't type this - but I have many time in the past. However, we saw in Q2 that inventory Vin # blocks were issued in what looks like July and August ready for the USA September sales event that happened. This means that perhaps blocks of Vin #s now are already laid out to be built for late Q4 inventory placement in November and December. I believe inventory for Europe has already landed in Tilburg for Q4. Normally, someone says they placed an order for Europe delivery and they get it about 3-months later. So, essentially, they would need to build Europe inventory 2-3 months ahead of time (ie. late September into early October for year-end). And so Mario K. here said he heard that Tilburg had a huge number of cars arrive in Tilburg recently. I suppose we should look for those showing up on the ev-cpo.com consolidator soon.

Wow, you never give up.

Do you have as much confidence in this forecast as you had in late August when you were telling your Twitter buddy Mark Spiegel Tesla would only deliver 69K vehicles in 2016, and 18.6K in Q3?


IMG_0234.PNG
 
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Scientologists don't defend their cause as much as you do, it appears.

Oooh, wonderful response to a well based allegation! /s

I won't repeat the question about your confidence in your forecast, but I feel your prognosis is a bit premature. Indeed the jump in wait times for deliveries means some objective is being targeted, but I wouldn't chalk that up to demand constraint.

Edit: Added the sarcasm tag in case it wasn't obvious enough.
 
I know I didn't type this - but I have many time in the past. However, we saw in Q2 that inventory Vin # blocks were issued in what looks like July and August ready for the USA September sales event that happened. This means that perhaps blocks of Vin #s now are already laid out to be built for late Q4 inventory placement in November and December. I believe inventory for Europe has already landed in Tilburg for Q4. Normally, someone says they placed an order for Europe delivery and they get it about 3-months later. So, essentially, they would need to build Europe inventory 2-3 months ahead of time (ie. late September into early October for year-end). And so Mario K. here said he heard that Tilburg had a huge number of cars arrive in Tilburg recently. I suppose we should look for those showing up on the ev-cpo.com consolidator soon.
Dude those cars were the ones delivered at the end of Q3... It's incredible unlikely that Tesla build Inventory for Europe that would arrive early October (maybe some custom cars intended for September delivery that didn't make it in time), when at that time cars could have been build to go on sale in the US in Q3. I don't expect many Inventory cars to show up in Europe before late November.

And yes Tesla will now build the cars for Europe like they have always done it.