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Scientologists don't defend their cause as much as you do, it appears.


(1) You claim some expertise in analyzing and predicting Tesla production and deliveries.
(2) You say that the time you spend on TMC is to provide a service as an independent seeker of truth.

My post was intended to provide information that some may find of interest for one or both of those points.
 
I was actually high on my MX prediction of deliveries (9200 vs 8700 actual). They dug deep into the MS inventory and the sales worked wonders. I was a bit low on my Q3 number. I just don't see Q3 repeated again if discounting is not done at the end of the year in a similar manner. Lot of $30k discounts on classic P90DLs as well as the 75 series with $7500 discount. I still think we are shooting to see a low 70xxx total figure end of year. I don't mind keeping 69500 as total target even though it seems low. Model X 5-seat and coils don't look like probable delivery by year end and that is a reasonable sized set.

MS MX Total
Prediction Q3 13400 9200 22600
Actual Q3 15800 8700 24500
 
I was actually high on my MX prediction of deliveries (9200 vs 8700 actual). They dug deep into the MS inventory and the sales worked wonders. I was a bit low on my Q3 number. I just don't see Q3 repeated again if discounting is not done at the end of the year in a similar manner. Lot of $30k discounts on classic P90DLs as well as the 75 series with $7500 discount. I still think we are shooting to see a low 70xxx total figure end of year. I don't mind keeping 69500 as total target even though it seems low. Model X 5-seat and coils don't look like probable delivery by year end and that is a reasonable sized set.

From 10/1 to mid November Tesla will most likely produce 12K-13K cars (6 of 7 weeks @ 2000-2200 per week). Add in the 5500 already in transit to customers, that means they will have around 18K delivered or in transit by mid November. If they didn't expect to deliver those 18K in Q4 they wouldn't have pushed new US Model S orders to December. So they need to build and deliver about 8K US cars in the last 6 weeks of Q4 to reach the 80K guidance. Should be doable.

I like my numbers more than your numbers.
 
I was actually high on my MX prediction of deliveries (9200 vs 8700 actual). They dug deep into the MS inventory and the sales worked wonders. I was a bit low on my Q3 number. I just don't see Q3 repeated again if discounting is not done at the end of the year in a similar manner. Lot of $30k discounts on classic P90DLs as well as the 75 series with $7500 discount. I still think we are shooting to see a low 70xxx total figure end of year. I don't mind keeping 69500 as total target even though it seems low. Model X 5-seat and coils don't look like probable delivery by year end and that is a reasonable sized set.

MS MX Total
Prediction Q3 13400 9200 22600
Actual Q3 15800 8700 24500

You consider a miss of almost 6000 cars (24500/18650), or 31.3%, "a bit low." Interesting.

Let's just make sure we understand your predictions for the rest of the year.

Tesla delivered 14810 and 14402 vehicles in Q1 and Q2 according to the ERs. The preliminary number for Q3 is a "conservative" 24500.

You are now predicting a "low 70,xxx" for the year. So that means your prediction for Q4 deliveries is about 16500, or about 5000 less than you predicted in your tweet in late August?

Sound about right to you?
 
I don't know where to post this question...

We finished 7 days of Oct., but the MS google spreadsheets barely changed. If including the last 10 days of Sept., we are seeing ~14-20 days without new entries. I am a little concerned.
Factory shutdown as was planned would be my guess. Also gives delivery guys some free time now that they had a hard push. It'/ pretty standard that after a big end of Q push the first few weeks are light on deliveries on the new Q.
 
I won't repeat the question about your confidence in your forecast, but I feel your prognosis is a bit premature. Indeed the jump in wait times for deliveries means some objective is being targeted, but I wouldn't chalk that up to demand constraint.

And it seems we'll soon (oct 17th) know what the delay of customer orders were for. These past few weeks was indeed for inventory then. Permits them to meet q4 delivery goals with a new product introduction - that doesn't kill sales for the next 2 weeks.
 
October 17 announcement. Not far from today but will it be M3 based or wait to order until knowing the details? I hope they introduce activity in the area of V2G as it really would fit in well with "full synergy". I think next decade, numerous EV makers will all be doing V2H and V2G. I hope all do. Would be the right thing to do. A car could be paid back for the kWhs it puts back to the grid.
 
I don't know where to post this question...

We finished 7 days of Oct., but the MS google spreadsheets barely changed. If including the last 10 days of Sept., we are seeing ~14-20 days without new entries. I am a little concerned.

Retooling of the factories for AP2.0 hardware, including faster processors, and dumping of MobileEye's EyeQ3 AP processor?

Perhaps also the reason for the Oct 17 announcement? This has to be done before the announcement, and get the legacy hardware vehicles delivered, to cut down on potential cancellations or delivery refusals?
 
I hope they introduce activity in the area of V2G as it really would fit in well with "full synergy". I think next decade, numerous EV makers will all be doing V2H and V2G. I hope all do. Would be the right thing to do. A car could be paid back for the kWhs it puts back to the grid.

Elon and JB have both spoken about the regulatory difficulties in sending power back to the grid. Seems unlikely.
 
Elon and JB have both spoken about the regulatory difficulties in sending power back to the grid. Seems unlikely.
Except that it is something they are already doing in Japan. And in test systems in the USA for years (ex Univ. of Delaware using early BMW ActiveE EVs).

This government is open to V2H and V2G - absolutely. Imagine this:
Your school bus systems go electric and during the summer, is not used but plugged in and acting as Freq. Response and local storage - cycled as needed by the smart grid. Millions of kWh on the ready plus no more diesel pollutants during school year.

I would think Elon and JB would both be "for it" if it didn't cannibalize the idea of PowerWalls. Or affect the total cycles of the NCA batteries (which is much lower than NMC). But we should relish V2G and V2H in a big way. How different is it than Net-metered Solar PV? Not different at all. Should be part of the CPP as part of the aggregate way of lowering CO2. I would say that Tesla is "behind" other manufacturers by not actually pushing for it. Usually they "push" for laws to be changed (ie. suing Michigan) to make changes in their favor.
 
I would think Elon and JB would both be "for it" if it didn't cannibalize the idea of PowerWalls. Or affect the total cycles of the NCA batteries (which is much lower than NMC).

Those are both concerns as well. At first I thought they were making a mistake by not doing V2G, but, as usual, after hearing their reasoning they make a strong case for avoiding it, and I now agree with their stance. They know much more about the various impacts and requirements than we do. We won't be seeing V2G from Tesla anytime soon unless something fundamental changes, (technology and/or regulation). Rather off topic for the website wait times thread anyway.
 
There is a report of the factory finishing a car on Oct 4th now. So at least the first week they were not shut down. There is also a 164xxx available as inventory which partially confirms it because that VIN at very, very earliest could have entered production the last or the one but last day of September. And that would mean a backlog of 2 days. While my position has always been that the backlog is smaller than many others here, even I don't think the backlog is that short.
 
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Interesting Vin # assignment the last day or two. I suspect these high jumps in vin # assignment may indicate something "unexpected". Online friend today speculated that this could mean inventory to be built for "dealerships" - perhaps Auto Nation or similar - or perhaps in other countries to be stocked with inventory for a larger footprint to be announced soon (Oct 17?) As before, more of the "building inventory ahead of customers" may be happening as some folks have seen delivery dates slip back into December.
 
There is a report of the factory finishing a car on Oct 4th now. So at least the first week they were not shut down. There is also a 164xxx available as inventory which partially confirms it because that VIN at very, very earliest could have entered production the last or the one but last day of September. And that would mean a backlog of 2 days. While my position has always been that the backlog is smaller than many others here, even I don't think the backlog is that short.
They probably have some European cars backlog, but due to the increased production does not take that long anymore to build those.

Also 1677xx VIN in the tracker. Confirmed today.
Interesting that's a 1000 jump in 1 day. I would guess Tesla Inventory cars with AP 2.0.
 
Normally, there were about 10~20 entries for each one thousand VINs on the google spreadsheets. But back in the late March and early April, there were only one 135XXX and two 136XXX, though a bunch of inventory cars. That was the time during the MS facelift.

Now we are seeing a similar situation, i.e., one 162XXX, one 164XXX and zero 163XXX, zero 165XXX. VIN now jumps to 166XXX-167XXX.

This makes me speculate: (1) some major hardware refresh going on? maybe related to the unexpected product announcement on Oct 17th? (2) If the new product can not stimulate enough demand, I feel the Q4 delivery would be hard to meet 25K. Q1 and particularly Q2 were disappointing.
 
I have no idea how to interpret this but the order car page used to estimate wait time for delivery of new order these have been removed and only priority given to p85 car left. Has it lengthened with increased demand or shortened with increased production? Do they believe those estimates not useful? I hope not people will need estimate of time before they order. I believe this will be important clue to stock price when clarified
Basically they tell you it's a month before they take your money, then bump it out to 3 after you are committed with the deposit
 
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