The post below says the guy got an actual "Late Jan, Early Feb" estimate after confirming when initially saying March.
From "Flying Drummer"
Model S Delivery Update
From "Flying Drummer"
Model S Delivery Update
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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
I'm thinking that quite a few S owners are upgrading. Some of our early cars are getting a little long in the tooth.
Europe has been on April for a few days now.
I honestly find it kinda surprising. Because the spreadsheet shows that 174xxx VINs to Norway and the UK have already have started production.
Maybe they want to focus on Hong Kong as it still shows March there. 2017 FRT Renewal
I honestly find it kinda surprising. Because the spreadsheet shows that 174xxx VINs to Norway and the UK have already have started production.
Maybe they want to focus on Hong Kong as it still shows March there. 2017 FRT Renewal
Model X now showing earliest US delivery in May, from late March. S still showing late March.
This is consistent with the trend from December -- order backlog continues to grow. Hard to tell how much of the increased backlog is due to increasing orders versus planned short-term production shutdown which has now been reported from several sources, but given strong VIN number issuance at least a significant part of it seems to be increasing orders.
Will be interesting to see how long the S remains available for delivery in late March. Since S can be produced faster and probably at higher margins than X, prioritizing S production should increase numbers of cars produced and delivered, overall margins, profits and cash flow.
The delayed delivery schedule for X also suggests strong demand for X, especially given virtually no X available in inventory worldwide.
This is consistent with the trend from December -- order backlog continues to grow. Hard to tell how much of the increased backlog is due to increasing orders versus planned short-term production shutdown which has now been reported from several sources, but given strong VIN number issuance at least a significant part of it seems to be increasing orders.
Will be interesting to see how long the S remains available for delivery in late March. Since S can be produced faster and probably at higher margins than X, prioritizing S production should increase numbers of cars produced and delivered, overall margins, profits and cash flow.
The delayed delivery schedule for X also suggests strong demand for X, especially given virtually no X available in inventory worldwide.
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I think that Tesla internally planning on MX demand being more robust than MS demand. This divergence in delivery time might be manifestations of this, rather than Tesla allocating greater portion of the production to MS (as volume of MX grows, I think that margins will be quickly approaching MS margins).
Here are the excerpts from the Q3 letter that provide additional context:
More than four years since its introduction, Model S continues to expand market s hare, which is a testament to our continuous vehicle innovation. In the U.S., which is Tesla’s most mature market, Model S deliveries grew nearly 60% year over year, increasing its lead status with a 32% share of the top 12 selling large luxury sedans , as Model S unit growth significantly outpaced U.S. large luxury sedan category sales growth.
Despite still ramping production, Model X is also gaining market share, already growing to 6% of the U.S. large luxury SUV market in Q3, or #8 in the large luxury SUV category, edging out the Porsche Macan and Cayenne, the Land Rover R-R Sport and the Infiniti QX80. The large luxury SUV category is three times the size of the large luxury sedan category in the U.S., and represents a huge opportunity to further increase Model X sales.
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Increasing Model X demand is definitely part of the equation. VIN issuance between S and X was approaching parity last time I checked, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see X sales begin to exceed S sales at some point this year, possibly very soon. But I haven't seen signs yet that X orders exceed S, which would explain the discrepancy in delivery times. I would say that since X is likely to be very popular in some of the newer and rapidly growing markets (e.g., China), it is possible that X demand is already exceeding S and this is an early sign of it.
We'll see how long S remains available for delivery in US in late March -- if it sticks around for a while IMO that would weigh in favor of Tesla having chosen to produce higher volumes of S to maximize production to generate cash flow for Model 3. If it is just a few days -- pretty meaningless IMO.
Either way -- too much demand is a nice problem to have!
Ulmo
Active Member
This is anecdotal, but consistent with above:
I'm definitely seeing a sense of Model X being current and Model S being boring and outdated. Literally every date I went on ever since buying my Model S they said "oh, I saw someone with the Model X! It was fantastic! Roomy! Awesome!" and many other positive remarks, and none of them thought very highly of my model S at all (I didn't advertise it much, but I noticed they had a very high interest in the Model X but not my car despite me showing up in my car). I think their response is equal to the marketplace response I've also seen in general at Tesla, in interest in the new models, and everywhere.
At service center + stores, pretty highly optioned Model S's work as loaner mules, and there's almost no Model X's on their lots, with the ones that are there being owned ones, which tells me that Model X's are all in high demand, not sitting around collecting dust and rain. Most of the owned Model S's I see around in use are older model, and most of the owned Model X's I see around in use are newer. There is definitely a preference for Model X for most people. I think the additional cost only slows down a few buyers, considering the price range of both to begin with.
I'm definitely seeing a sense of Model X being current and Model S being boring and outdated. Literally every date I went on ever since buying my Model S they said "oh, I saw someone with the Model X! It was fantastic! Roomy! Awesome!" and many other positive remarks, and none of them thought very highly of my model S at all (I didn't advertise it much, but I noticed they had a very high interest in the Model X but not my car despite me showing up in my car). I think their response is equal to the marketplace response I've also seen in general at Tesla, in interest in the new models, and everywhere.
At service center + stores, pretty highly optioned Model S's work as loaner mules, and there's almost no Model X's on their lots, with the ones that are there being owned ones, which tells me that Model X's are all in high demand, not sitting around collecting dust and rain. Most of the owned Model S's I see around in use are older model, and most of the owned Model X's I see around in use are newer. There is definitely a preference for Model X for most people. I think the additional cost only slows down a few buyers, considering the price range of both to begin with.
My impression based on what I see at the Newark, Delaware SC is there are more new nosed Ss than Xs there. In talking with people there I still find that the X is more the family vehicle (as it should be being an SUV) and the S more the daily driver/commuting one.
Just one data point.
Maybe not.
We just put in an order for a Model X 100D. Wife talked to some guy at Fremont about terms for lease/loan and he told us that if we order this weekend we will get it by the end of March. He indicated that due to batching, the April models will be designated for Europe/Asia.
He set up a reservation for us, but when we looked at it, it was missing our (self) referral discount. So we re-registered the order tonight and got a res number which was in the 900k's, his was 700k's. Just emailed him to see if that matters. Wife says we can wait until May, me on the other hand...
So it seems that if you want it sooner than May, call them!
Just a friendly Public Service Announcement for prospective buyers!
Congrats...you need to change your postscript from eyeing the X100D to....awaiting, or embracing..or..Maybe not.
We just put in an order for a Model X 100D. Wife talked to some guy at Fremont about terms for lease/loan and he told us that if we order this weekend we will get it by the end of March. He indicated that due to batching, the April models will be designated for Europe/Asia.
He set up a reservation for us, but when we looked at it, it was missing our (self) referral discount. So we re-registered the order tonight and got a res number which was in the 900k's, his was 700k's. Just emailed him to see if that matters. Wife says we can wait until May, me on the other hand...
So it seems that if you want it sooner than May, call them!
Just a friendly Public Service Announcement for prospective buyers!
It probably helped that you are in Nevada, are already an owner, selected an X and 100D, and we're persistent. If Joe Schmo from Tallahassee called and wanted a 75D by April Fools day, not going to happen.
So if Q1 is essentially in the books, what production and delivery level did Tesla dial in? Any production/delivery for China &Europe is already there or in route. With the exception of edge cases like GTG, US deliveries are moving to Q2...Fremont is about to take a long nap (although Tesla says they made up those days). 25k produced? 30k produced? 2,750 that were meant to be booked in Q4, but slipped to Q1, 6,450 in transit. (Tesla Q4 2016 Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)). 9,200 total to add to Q1 production, I would be disappointed if Tesla didn't guide (and meet) expectations for 30,000 deliveries in Q1. That would set up 2017 nicely for a 50% YOY in just S&X...with Model III deliveries as bonus growth.
I think 30K is possible but I would guess we'll end up somewhere in the high 20s (28Kish).
The way I read the Q4 letter, the 6,450 in transit included the 2750 "almost delivered." 2400x11.5 weeks (10 day shutdown)=27,600 production SWAG. VIN numbers issued over the past 3 months have been roughly 15K S and 12K X or 27K total (trending higher over past two months, especially X).
6450 in transit at the end of Q4 is high but the previous two quarters were around 5,000. Q2 and Q3 both had "unusual circumstances" but I think a production shutdown in late February has the potential to lead to another delivery scramble in late March. So I don't think we can count on a huge drawdown (although it is possible). Assuming a net drawdown of 1000 from vehicles in transit, and 500 more vehicles going into inventory than out (due to new store openings etc.) results in a very rough estimate of 28K deliveries (27,600+1000-500=28,100). Keeping S orders open an extra couple weeks might increase that slightly (Model S order book is still open in the US).
Lots of variables this quarter with Model 3 production buildout so larger grain of salt than usual!
30K production and deliveries in Q2 seems doable if they are able to keep S/X production going for 12 weeks despite M3 production buildout, but not sure yet if that's possible. Hopefully we'll learn more on February 22.
I do not check the Tesla website daily, but noticed yesterday that US delivery estimates for all MS variants now show May.
An interesting evolution here is that Europe is at August. Plus we've seen a number of European builds ordered last few weeks going into production with delivery Q3. Earlier quarters, those build slots would have gone to US orders for delivery in Q2. It's tempting to assume Tesla made their guidance and is moving on to a less regionally batched production. At the same time we've been burned before by that assumption so the alternative explanation that the backlog is rather shallow should not be dismissed out of hand either.
Interesting info. I haven't been following European deliveries closely but several US Model S buyers have reported recently that Tesla pushed back their scheduled June deliveries to July. That suggests Tesla ran out of capacity for the quarter (sold out). Whether that is due to a longer than ordinary shutdown later this month (for example, to accommodate Model 3 production) or just high level of orders I don't know for certain. If there is just the typical one-week shutdown later this month, seems like it should be a strong quarter.
One also need to consider that they need to move from the heavily back loaded deliveries within each quarter to even distribution before Model 3 is added to the mix. The delivery personnel would be overwhelmed otherwise.
The switchover would require adding many thousands of cars to the in transit pipeline, and need to be spread over at least couple of quarters to minimize impact on revenue.
On a separate note the current production goal of MX is at healthy 1050 cars/week...
The switchover would require adding many thousands of cars to the in transit pipeline, and need to be spread over at least couple of quarters to minimize impact on revenue.
On a separate note the current production goal of MX is at healthy 1050 cars/week...
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