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Website wait times for delivery change

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Agree with your theory 100%. The other anomaly this would explain is Tesla's statement that Q3 S/X GM would be negatively impacted by product "mix shift". The need to flush inventory leads to higher discounts and thus lower GM.

Agreed.

IIIRC big refreshes generally seem to happen at quarterly boundaries as they align the assembly line re-configs with the 1-week off given to factory workers. Model S face-lift happened similarly if memory serves me right. So end of Sep refresh sounds about right.
 
Agreed.

IIIRC big refreshes generally seem to happen at quarterly boundaries as they align the assembly line re-configs with the 1-week off given to factory workers. Model S face-lift happened similarly if memory serves me right. So end of Sep refresh sounds about right.

I personally would wait on any refresh until the 3 ramp is at 5k/week and climbing. Putting it off another quarter would seem prudent.

I get Tesla/EM does not do 'prudent'
so I realize my point is mute.
 
Isn't it quite early for such a change? Anyone keeping track of usual quarterly changes? Are people on the left coast also seeing October? Does this mean faster sales or suspended production?

In Q1 it changed over 2 weeks earlier still (early Feb). In Q2 it changed over one week later (early Jun). Small circumstancial evidence that Q2 demand was lower and that we are most certainly seeing an uptick. Makes sense with the Model 3 reveal due to double whammy. Got Tesla a lot of free publicity and some of the details (esp wait time for dual motors) may have convinced some reservation holders to move to an S.

If average wait times continue to run out and inventory drops, we may even return to being production constrained on the S/X.
 
I have been following this metric for 2 years and this is the first time I can remember it moving out of the quarter during the second month.

Are you sure you are recording the estimated time of delivery as indicated when you actually click through for an order? Because you surely would have remembers that it moved out in early Feb in 2017Q1 (Website wait times for delivery change), it moved out late November in 2016Q4 (Website wait times for delivery change), it moved out late August in 2016Q3 (private record, not on the board) and it moved out late May in 2016Q2 (Website wait times for delivery change)
 
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The danger in giving a sales quota to Jon and not stating what the numbers are - is he can become the "fall guy" if not met. Good luck to Jon Mc.

Also, if he is given "sales levers" such as ability to contact all Model3 reservation holders to offer special treatment to consider buying a Model S 75 now, that could help. There is a lot of inventory out there and if they could offer a searchable web site to actually show all of it, customers might be able to buy from that inventory without requiring more queued orders. that would free up resources at Fremont to build more Model 3 and those are the ticket to higher unit-sales volume.

Remember, Elon gets big options grants upon both 200,000 cumulative cars produced (already met) and 300,000 cars produced. Getting Model 3 out there and sold is critical. Inventory cars are produced cars and can be held until the levers pulled.

I would like to know, though "where did those Model X 58xxx Vin #s go? " Finally got some visuals on that today with the Netherland inventory in that range, but where did the rest go?

My view is sales-momentum currently is a lot of MS 75 and 75D - indicating Model 3 "transfers or converts". You can see it in the Model S tracker spreadsheet.
 
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