WFH - futurology

[Buckminster]

Background
Many of us working from home and can now imagine maybe working 2 or 3+ days per week from home post crisis. Most people at my office have worked 1 day at home per week pre crisis.

Technology
Getting better. Not personally keen on Zoom. Most people switch off their cameras and there is little benefit in seeing lots of little faces anyway. Interacting with a document will be useful for some. Generally, most calls are made sharing a presentation only.
Cloud tech already allows companies to spin up new servers etc. with a simple email to AWS.

Impact

1. Post crisis - people start working 2 days per week from home. Workers probably will want 2 days only on average? They are now used to it. Understand the benefits and enjoy the extra time and freedom. Companies will probably be happy with this as productivity probably will be okay during crisis.
2. Companies will realise they don't need as much office space and start downsizing
3. Companies will see the balance sheet improvements - they will have a rota. Team A has use of conference rooms and desks on Monday and Thursday only etc.
4. Companies will invest heavily on remote working tech.
5. Wework etc. will do well but most will setup better offices at home
6. Gyms and Wework will merge into one concept
7. Companies will move to 1 day per week per team
8. Offices will be just be meeting areas and conference rooms - 1/3 of the square footage. People will stay late and there will be a party atmosphere.
9. Commercial property prices will nose dive
10. Commercial property will be converted to housing
11. Many will live on the road - not tied to a place of work for even one day per week
12. Real estate prices will remain static for decades
13. Mental health issues will increase but it will be too late to turn back the clock
14. Then the robots and AI will come big time
15. UBI for all
16. People will live in their gym - like a kibbutz

Did I get carried away? Maybe this isn't crazy enough?

 

[Buckminster]

UK have been told that we are likely to be on lockdown until June. Life back to normal in 6 months.

I am doubling down on the above WFH outcomes. Life is very quickly going on-line.

 

[Buckminster]

19 mins in - Cathie talking about people moving out of CA and NY to WFH in cheaper states.

 

[vikings123]

I agree with a lot of your points. However I would not be so quick to rule out the impact of video conferencing, be it a collaboration tool like Teams, Slack or Zoom.

In my experience over the past 8 weeks I’m seeing more and more clients and employees get comfortable with the idea of turning their cameras on. It really makes a huge difference to the overall quality of the conversations.

 

[Mark R]

"Most people switch off their cameras..."

Not cool! We don't let that happen. If you want to participate, we gotta see you. I think it's an etiquette thing. After nine weeks of zoom calls, I almost DON'T want to do a voice call anymore. It seems so "antique"... kinda like a telegram.

 

[Buckminster]

Facebook expecting 50% of employees to WFH full time:
Facebook expects half of employees to work remotely over next five to 10 years

 

[Buckminster]

SF house properties getting hit:

San Francisco rents plunge as tech employees abandon high-priced city to work remotely

 

[Buckminster]

The more I think about it, the more I realise how uncomfortable life in the office will be going forwards. I do so much more conference calls now with folk outside my company. I can hold those calls in privacy, comfort and silence at home. The last thing I need is to worry about annoying my desk neighbours every time I speak.

UK government are looking at new laws to repurpose office space without planning permission - the writing is on the wall.

Coming in 1 day a week (or even a fortnight) seems likely - would that be the whole office in a shared space (multiple companies sharing 1 office) or smaller teams on a rota?
Even this may be unpopular in the short term as folk move to Bali etc. to WFH.

 

[Buckminster]

Affect on company profitability:

1. Companies keep folk at home
2. Companies stop leasing 75% of their office space
3. Companies grow in profitability
4. ?
   1. Companies pay employees more to retain talent? or:
   2. Companies outsource more work to offshore workers now that they can work seamlessly with existing employees (limited overlap in working hours will cause some problems however). This would cause pay to reduce and profitability to increase further.

What do you think will prevail - 1 or 2?

 

[hershey101]

Affect on company profitability:

1. Companies keep folk at home
2. Companies stop leasing 75% of their office space
3. Companies grow in profitability
4. ?
   1. Companies pay employees more to retain talent? or:
   2. Companies outsource more work to offshore workers now that they can work seamlessly with existing employees (limited overlap in working hours will cause some problems however). This would cause pay to reduce and profitability to increase further.

What do you think will prevail - 1 or 2?

For a majority of companies it'll be 2... There are very few people with specialized skills that actually would need to be paid more... And even for those folks, most will move to less expensive areas (out of SF/NYC etc.), so the company can afford to pay them less and the employees will accept less because their take home will be higher.
Eg. if you move out of CA to a state with no income tax, you automatically gain 12% (CA is crazy). Even if you split that between employee/employer, each gains an extra 6% for the same take home... Most likely, employees would accept lower payments because moving would also come with lower cost of living expenses.

 

[Buckminster]

Schroders makes home working permanent – Daily Business

Companies aren't downsizing yet because they staff that do return in September need more space. Rents are going to plummet further when the vaccines appear.

 

[st_lopes]

Affect on company profitability:

1. Companies keep folk at home
2. Companies stop leasing 75% of their office space
3. Companies grow in profitability
4. ?
   1. Companies pay employees more to retain talent? or:
   2. Companies outsource more work to offshore workers now that they can work seamlessly with existing employees (limited overlap in working hours will cause some problems however). This would cause pay to reduce and profitability to increase further.

What do you think will prevail - 1 or 2?

I work in Professional Services, particularly for the largest PS firm globally. Everything you’ve described has organically been happening for several years in our context. Our offices now have more real estate dedicated to gyms, conference rooms, collaboration spaces, and training centers than they do desks.

I haven’t had a fixed office space for years. COVID has accelerated the transition for some of our more legacy/luddite personnel (those that went out of their way to always secure the same “hotelling” desk every day).

I’ve now attended multiple “virtual conferences” that leverage the power of zoom to move to break out rooms, white board sessions, “social” sessions. Not quite as impactful as being in person, but still has some merit.

I would add #3 to your outcomes: Companies start to cut salaries based on where the employee is physically based. Facebook as an example: Facebook pay cuts: Employees could have reduced salaries if they move

I personally think this is a horrible treatment of talent and will just encourage more people to go in to a gig work environment where they have better control over their hourly rates.

Pay people for the value of their work, not based on where they live, but most business owners would not agree.

 

[Buckminster]

 

[Buckminster]

The besties talk about a death spiral for CA and NY where WFH workers are migrating to Austin etc.

 

[Buckminster]

The pandemic forced a massive remote-work experiment. Now comes the hard part

 

[Buckminster]

42 mins in - Besties discuss this topic. Jury is still out.

 

[Buckminster]

You can invest in a WFH ETF now:
Work From Home ETF | WFH | Direxion

 

[Buckminster]

Brits WFH from Monday due to Omicron. I personally have had two days in the office in 20 months. New positions often quote 0, 1 or 2 days in the office per week max.

 

[Buckminster]

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1611922097785159682