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What’s an educated guess on when Model Y will receive 400+ mi range capability?

ChimpledPot

Member
Nov 7, 2020
37
47
Houston
We know battery tech is improved and going into the new and upcoming vehicles. Anyone done any analysis on when Model Y will receive these battery upgrades? Or will Tesla “Apple” us by putting the improved batteries in the Model Y, albeit fewer of them, and maintain the ~326 mi range?
 

TomServo

Active Member
Apr 10, 2014
1,127
678
Belleville IL
I'm starting to have a different point of view on this issue. With the current 2021 SuperCharger build plan (and at least for my anticipated travel) my 316 rated range (240 real-world) is more than enough. I created a spreadsheet for all my know routes and the average distance between SuperChargers is just at 80 miles and getting smaller. Our plan is to use the SC'ers as "LilyPads" for quick charges and BIO breaks as needed.

My math could be wrong but at the current cost of batteries adding another 75 miles of range to a Tesla could cost between $5K and $6K. I think doing more frequent but shorter stops and keeping the battery near its fastest-changing profile would yield similar elapsed times on long-distance travel than having a bigger battery. Plus how often would you actually use that much range that you paid for. So I'm leaning towards "using the grid" as my battery.
 

Exelion

Member
Feb 21, 2021
62
49
Los Angeles, CA
316 (240 real world) is enough for some people, but I can see where it is not for many others.

-A lot of people in the world live in areas where temps get super-cold (at or below freezing). This cuts down range significantly, as much as 2/3 loss!

-Some have expressed interest in using their Teslas to tow. This, and the above, by themselves, are huge losses in range. Together they can bring down a range of 240 down to less than 100!

-I've heard that 500 is a good range number to aim for, and I'd agree. that would give ample range for towing and cold weather, and way more than enough in non-towing, mild temps. I think beyond that, and we're probably going to see smaller batteries, and less weight as goals.

-more frequent charges are inconvenient, especially at <100 miles distance between each one. There's broad band of what's ok and what's inconvenient depending on the person(s) in the car, but at one point it can get excessive. But that's ok, because more Superchargers also brings more choices of which one to use, and the day where there are as many superchargers as gas stations is a day we all look forward to.

Tesla (Elon) is a company that is capable of doing many things at once, (and well). They can bring battery costs down WHILE increasing range WHILE building more superchargers WHILE increasing the charging rate WHILE maintaining all Superchargers in good working order.
 

theothertom

Member
May 9, 2020
263
157
South Carolina
Just my guess, but it'll take new battery chemistry (which Tesla/Panasonic has said will happen) and the 4680 battery to get to 400+ miles. And I think 4680 won't happen until Tesla does the structural battery pack. Roll all that together and it'l be a couple of years, IMO.
IF, and it's a big IF, QuantumScape/VW's solid state battery comes to fruition, Tesla will accelerate the timeline.
 
Oct 3, 2020
152
173
Seattle
I don't expect to see the 400+ mile range until the 4680 cells and structural battery pack have been integrated into the MY design. Being that the Cybertruck, MS Plaid, Roadster, and Semi will all be utilizing the 4680 cell, I think it will be awhile before it finds its way to the MY.

I think the Cybertruck will also serve as an R&D platform to refine the 4680 structural design before it is integrated into other models. This would only make sense before making such a massive change in the battery design department in an effort to preserve Tesla's reputation when it comes to batteries.
 

Big Earl

bnkwupt
Jul 12, 2017
5,061
9,084
Springfield, VA
We know battery tech is improved and going into the new and upcoming vehicles. Anyone done any analysis on when Model Y will receive these battery upgrades? Or will Tesla “Apple” us by putting the improved batteries in the Model Y, albeit fewer of them, and maintain the ~326 mi range?

Attaining an EPA range of 400 miles will take a 100 kWh battery pack. I don't see that happening within the next 5 years on the 3/Y.
 
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Rocky_H

Well-Known Member
Feb 19, 2015
5,990
6,910
Boise, ID
A lot of people in the world live in areas where temps get super-cold (at or below freezing). This cuts down range significantly, as much as 2/3 loss!
Don't panic people from your mistaken phrasing, please. I think you mean 1/3 loss. That is getting only 2/3 of the "rated miles" number on the display. No matter how cold, it doesn't lose 2/3 of that.
 
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jsight

Member
Apr 5, 2018
448
254
Charleston
I think this will happen in about 5 years. This is in line with the past rate of progress.

It may happen more quickly if competitive pressure starts to increase and battery supplies become less of an issue.

I expect a plateau at just over 300 miles of real world highway range in fair conditions due to the cost/benefit tradeoff at that point.
 
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roblab

Active Member
Jul 15, 2008
3,376
2,430
Angwin (Napa Valley) CA
They'll supply towing capability for the Y as soon as people are willing to pay for the beefed up frame. But then people will complain about the extra cost of owning a Y.

Look. If you want to tow, you really need to get the X, which has the power, battery and frame to do it. And even then some doofus will try to haul a 15,000 lb trailer up a 7000' incline at 70 mph. There are just too many uneducated and non-caring people out there. And of course, they will try to sue Tesla for a new motor/battery/whatever, when they fail.

I can already see someone pulling into a campsite at the top of the Sierras with a Model Y and a full trailer house wondering why the car will only do 5mph.

A few years ago my wife and I realized that motels were far far cheaper and almost everywhere one might want to be. I don't tow any more.
 
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zecar

Member
Nov 30, 2017
344
223
New York/Chicago
I think this will happen in about 5 years. This is in line with the past rate of progress.

It may happen more quickly if competitive pressure starts to increase and battery supplies become less of an issue.

I expect a plateau at just over 300 miles of real world highway range in fair conditions due to the cost/benefit tradeoff at that point.
I hear youtubers enthusiastic about the new EV with range in the low 200s. But I don't think they realize that at 75mph and 20f outside temps they are looking at a real world highway range of 100 miles (charging from 10 to 80%). 300 is the right range for a general purpose better EV in North America today. As power density improves and cost decreases 400 would seem to be the new standard. But we do not seem close to that happening in the near future.

The problem all successful EV companies face is now having enough cells. This condition will likely suppress Tesla's desire to build mid price very long range cars. I think the LR model S will be a 500 mile car before the Model Y is 400 rated.
 
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