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What’s an educated guess on when Model Y will receive 400+ mi range capability?
- Thread starter ChimpledPot
- Start date
When competition forces them to. They have no incentive at current demand.
TomServo
Active Member
I'm starting to have a different point of view on this issue. With the current 2021 SuperCharger build plan (and at least for my anticipated travel) my 316 rated range (240 real-world) is more than enough. I created a spreadsheet for all my know routes and the average distance between SuperChargers is just at 80 miles and getting smaller. Our plan is to use the SC'ers as "LilyPads" for quick charges and BIO breaks as needed.
My math could be wrong but at the current cost of batteries adding another 75 miles of range to a Tesla could cost between $5K and $6K. I think doing more frequent but shorter stops and keeping the battery near its fastest-changing profile would yield similar elapsed times on long-distance travel than having a bigger battery. Plus how often would you actually use that much range that you paid for. So I'm leaning towards "using the grid" as my battery.
My math could be wrong but at the current cost of batteries adding another 75 miles of range to a Tesla could cost between $5K and $6K. I think doing more frequent but shorter stops and keeping the battery near its fastest-changing profile would yield similar elapsed times on long-distance travel than having a bigger battery. Plus how often would you actually use that much range that you paid for. So I'm leaning towards "using the grid" as my battery.
Exelion
Member
316 (240 real world) is enough for some people, but I can see where it is not for many others.
-A lot of people in the world live in areas where temps get super-cold (at or below freezing). This cuts down range significantly, as much as 2/3 loss!
-Some have expressed interest in using their Teslas to tow. This, and the above, by themselves, are huge losses in range. Together they can bring down a range of 240 down to less than 100!
-I've heard that 500 is a good range number to aim for, and I'd agree. that would give ample range for towing and cold weather, and way more than enough in non-towing, mild temps. I think beyond that, and we're probably going to see smaller batteries, and less weight as goals.
-more frequent charges are inconvenient, especially at <100 miles distance between each one. There's broad band of what's ok and what's inconvenient depending on the person(s) in the car, but at one point it can get excessive. But that's ok, because more Superchargers also brings more choices of which one to use, and the day where there are as many superchargers as gas stations is a day we all look forward to.
Tesla (Elon) is a company that is capable of doing many things at once, (and well). They can bring battery costs down WHILE increasing range WHILE building more superchargers WHILE increasing the charging rate WHILE maintaining all Superchargers in good working order.
-A lot of people in the world live in areas where temps get super-cold (at or below freezing). This cuts down range significantly, as much as 2/3 loss!
-Some have expressed interest in using their Teslas to tow. This, and the above, by themselves, are huge losses in range. Together they can bring down a range of 240 down to less than 100!
-I've heard that 500 is a good range number to aim for, and I'd agree. that would give ample range for towing and cold weather, and way more than enough in non-towing, mild temps. I think beyond that, and we're probably going to see smaller batteries, and less weight as goals.
-more frequent charges are inconvenient, especially at <100 miles distance between each one. There's broad band of what's ok and what's inconvenient depending on the person(s) in the car, but at one point it can get excessive. But that's ok, because more Superchargers also brings more choices of which one to use, and the day where there are as many superchargers as gas stations is a day we all look forward to.
Tesla (Elon) is a company that is capable of doing many things at once, (and well). They can bring battery costs down WHILE increasing range WHILE building more superchargers WHILE increasing the charging rate WHILE maintaining all Superchargers in good working order.
Just my guess, but it'll take new battery chemistry (which Tesla/Panasonic has said will happen) and the 4680 battery to get to 400+ miles. And I think 4680 won't happen until Tesla does the structural battery pack. Roll all that together and it'l be a couple of years, IMO.
IF, and it's a big IF, QuantumScape/VW's solid state battery comes to fruition, Tesla will accelerate the timeline.
IF, and it's a big IF, QuantumScape/VW's solid state battery comes to fruition, Tesla will accelerate the timeline.
I don't expect to see the 400+ mile range until the 4680 cells and structural battery pack have been integrated into the MY design. Being that the Cybertruck, MS Plaid, Roadster, and Semi will all be utilizing the 4680 cell, I think it will be awhile before it finds its way to the MY.
I think the Cybertruck will also serve as an R&D platform to refine the 4680 structural design before it is integrated into other models. This would only make sense before making such a massive change in the battery design department in an effort to preserve Tesla's reputation when it comes to batteries.
I think the Cybertruck will also serve as an R&D platform to refine the 4680 structural design before it is integrated into other models. This would only make sense before making such a massive change in the battery design department in an effort to preserve Tesla's reputation when it comes to batteries.
Attaining an EPA range of 400 miles will take a 100 kWh battery pack. I don't see that happening within the next 5 years on the 3/Y.
Don't panic people from your mistaken phrasing, please. I think you mean 1/3 loss. That is getting only 2/3 of the "rated miles" number on the display. No matter how cold, it doesn't lose 2/3 of that.
Exelion
Member
I think this will happen in about 5 years. This is in line with the past rate of progress.
It may happen more quickly if competitive pressure starts to increase and battery supplies become less of an issue.
I expect a plateau at just over 300 miles of real world highway range in fair conditions due to the cost/benefit tradeoff at that point.
It may happen more quickly if competitive pressure starts to increase and battery supplies become less of an issue.
I expect a plateau at just over 300 miles of real world highway range in fair conditions due to the cost/benefit tradeoff at that point.
roblab
Active Member
They'll supply towing capability for the Y as soon as people are willing to pay for the beefed up frame. But then people will complain about the extra cost of owning a Y.
Look. If you want to tow, you really need to get the X, which has the power, battery and frame to do it. And even then some doofus will try to haul a 15,000 lb trailer up a 7000' incline at 70 mph. There are just too many uneducated and non-caring people out there. And of course, they will try to sue Tesla for a new motor/battery/whatever, when they fail.
I can already see someone pulling into a campsite at the top of the Sierras with a Model Y and a full trailer house wondering why the car will only do 5mph.
A few years ago my wife and I realized that motels were far far cheaper and almost everywhere one might want to be. I don't tow any more.
Look. If you want to tow, you really need to get the X, which has the power, battery and frame to do it. And even then some doofus will try to haul a 15,000 lb trailer up a 7000' incline at 70 mph. There are just too many uneducated and non-caring people out there. And of course, they will try to sue Tesla for a new motor/battery/whatever, when they fail.
I can already see someone pulling into a campsite at the top of the Sierras with a Model Y and a full trailer house wondering why the car will only do 5mph.
A few years ago my wife and I realized that motels were far far cheaper and almost everywhere one might want to be. I don't tow any more.
I hear youtubers enthusiastic about the new EV with range in the low 200s. But I don't think they realize that at 75mph and 20f outside temps they are looking at a real world highway range of 100 miles (charging from 10 to 80%). 300 is the right range for a general purpose better EV in North America today. As power density improves and cost decreases 400 would seem to be the new standard. But we do not seem close to that happening in the near future.
The problem all successful EV companies face is now having enough cells. This condition will likely suppress Tesla's desire to build mid price very long range cars. I think the LR model S will be a 500 mile car before the Model Y is 400 rated.
This is just my personal opinion, but I think once electric vehicles consistently show about 350mi of real-world range (so, ~480mi of "EPA"), that will be the final nail in the coffin for ICE vehicles. At that point, range anxiety only becomes an issue in a very small amount of scenarios, with or without Tesla's supercharger network. The "appeal" of owning an ICE vehicle becomes vastly diminished, and demand for EVs should experience another step change surge.
This is also the level at which EV solutions start to make serious headway into displacing truck/bus fleets that run on CNG/LNG.
We can debate whether that inflection point is 300, 350, or 400mi of real-world range, but my point is that I think it's somewhat higher than where we are now. It's not clear to me that this milestone is very far away either, given the rapid improvements in battery technology over the past decade
For this reason I think all EV companies would be very focused on acheiving this milestone as soon as possible. .Winning the race to that inflection point is a huge prize.
Not reading all the posts, but I assume some here are saying that 300 miles is plenty of range already and you never need a larger battery. In cold states in the winter that 300 miles is more like 200 miles at highway speeds. So yes, I think range will continue to improve. However, I would not be surprised if the strutual pack and tabless cells took awhile to trickle down from S/X/Trunks. We might see 350 to 375 in the next 12 to 18 months but might be more like 2 to 3 years for an overhaul on the type of cells used and the packs.
I think it'll also really depend on the market. If we see Mach E and ID4 with 375 to 400 miles of range, then yes the 3/Y will be a bit ahead of those guys. If they continue to lag behind and just start hitting 300 to 325 miles of range then there is less need on Tesla's end to really improve range that much over the standard 10 to 15 miles every year or so from slightly better batteries or optimization of the vehicle.
I do think we'll see 400 to 500 miles down the road at some point, becasue I think that would be more like 300 to 350 in the winter, which I think is more of the sweet spot, especially if we continue to be told not to charge to 100%. Four hours at 75 mph would be 300 miles. 350 wh/mi (which is not uncommon in the winter for a Y at highway speeds) would be a pack over 100kWh in size. With structural battery I could see 115kWh to 125kWh packs on 3/Y in three or four years and maybe 150kWh on S/X (500 miles at 300 wh/mi, maybe 375 miles in the winter at 400 wh/mi). That would also likely open up about a 225 mile range for towing on the X (~650 wh/mi), which would greatly help sell it compared to the Y. Yes you have CyberTruck for hardcore towing, but if you have a family of five or six and want to tow a boat to the lake or a camper or something you might actually want SUV style comfort and cabin room but truck like towing ability and range.
I think it'll also really depend on the market. If we see Mach E and ID4 with 375 to 400 miles of range, then yes the 3/Y will be a bit ahead of those guys. If they continue to lag behind and just start hitting 300 to 325 miles of range then there is less need on Tesla's end to really improve range that much over the standard 10 to 15 miles every year or so from slightly better batteries or optimization of the vehicle.
I do think we'll see 400 to 500 miles down the road at some point, becasue I think that would be more like 300 to 350 in the winter, which I think is more of the sweet spot, especially if we continue to be told not to charge to 100%. Four hours at 75 mph would be 300 miles. 350 wh/mi (which is not uncommon in the winter for a Y at highway speeds) would be a pack over 100kWh in size. With structural battery I could see 115kWh to 125kWh packs on 3/Y in three or four years and maybe 150kWh on S/X (500 miles at 300 wh/mi, maybe 375 miles in the winter at 400 wh/mi). That would also likely open up about a 225 mile range for towing on the X (~650 wh/mi), which would greatly help sell it compared to the Y. Yes you have CyberTruck for hardcore towing, but if you have a family of five or six and want to tow a boat to the lake or a camper or something you might actually want SUV style comfort and cabin room but truck like towing ability and range.
MYMY21
Member
Is there any consideration for battery degradation and the fact that an owner might retain 250-300 miles of range after a very long time if the capacity was more in the beginning? For me, there is almost never a need to drive more than 100 miles in a day around town. For road trips with family, there is almost always a need to stop every 100 miles or so for some kind of break during which a supercharger is helpful.
When I was deciding between the 3 and the Y, it was range as top priority. My businesses are far apart, on a regular day I drive about 250-270 miles all highway. However, the MY LR, had the latest and greatest at the time before the M3 got a refresh. I personally hope the MY and M3 see a 400-450 miles. The US has so much highway that I personally believe a 500 mile range EV should be the standard (But not everyone has my use case). However, we will def get the 400 miles, time is the factor.
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