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What’s next after FSD?

Discussion in 'Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD' started by Rolls14, Aug 14, 2019.

  1. Rolls14

    Rolls14 New Member

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    Is there anything after FSD or is that it? Kinda worried if I pay 6k and then they come out with something like FSD plus.
     
  2. Daniel in SD

    Daniel in SD Active Member

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    If you read the fine print FSD does not guarantee actual Full Self Driving (i.e. the car is responsible for driving). It's very likely there will be something after HW3 necessary for true FSD (they were already talking about HW4 at autonomy day). Not sure what they'll call it...
     
  3. Saghost

    Saghost Well-Known Member

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    FSD is supposed to be it, and is supposed to take us all the way to robotaxis. But things don't always work out as planned...
     
  4. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

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    Best way to handle a Tesla purchase if this worries you is to be happy with the package available today when you order, not the future package. So if NoA, Summon, autopark, auto lane change are worth $6k to you today, then get the package.

    There is no guarantee that whatever future features you may be hoping for, or even that they have announced (city NoA, stoplight/stop signs and enhanced summon) will be everything they claim today.

    Case in point, summon for AP1. Waaaaay back in Jan 2016, Tesla advertised the Summon AP1 owners were buying would eventually be what is known as enhanced summon today. That feature never happened for those cars. We had AP2, now AP3, etc.

    Summon Your Tesla from Your Phone
    Using Summon, once you arrive home and exit Model S or Model X, you can prompt it to do the rest: open your garage door, enter your garage, park itself, and shut down. In the morning, you wake up, walk out the front door, and summon your car. It will open the garage door and come to greet you. More broadly, Summon also eliminates the burden of having to squeeze in and out of tight parking spots. During this Beta stage of Summon, we would like customers to become familiar with it on private property. Eventually, your Tesla will be able to drive anywhere across the country to meet you, charging itself along the way. It will sync with your calendar to know exactly when to arrive.

    Tesla does this type of thing pretty frequently. (AP1 was actually supposed to get stop sign recognition, here we are maybe getting it with HW3).
     
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  5. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Active Member

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    It would be kinda silly to release something that is not actually full self-driving but call it "Full Self-Driving" and then release a software package that is better than "Full Self-Driving". So I imagine anything after HW3 will still be called FSD. "FSD Plus" will just be called "FSD". In other words, Tesla can use the term "Full Self-Driving" as an umbrella term for everything that comes later until they do eventually reach L5. At least that is my assumption. The term "Full Self-Driving" can be used for all features up to and including L5 when Tesla does eventually get there.
     
  6. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

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    They might do that but wow, what a nightmare that will make in the used marketplace trying to figure out what capabilities a 2017 FSD car has vs a 2021 FSD car.

    So far they have usually changed the name (my guess is so they can get more $$ by differentiating the packages). So AP went to EAP. Summon went to Smart Summon (never released) to Enhanced Summon (coming soon).

    So we might eventually get "Smart Full Self Driving" or maybe even a "Robotaxi" package. Who knows.
     
  7. cypho

    cypho Member

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    My prediction.

    Tesla will eventually stop calling it Full Self Driving and will begin to use the acronym FSD. Then after a while, they will redefine FSD as something like:
    • FailSafe Driving
    • Fun, Safe, Driving
    • For Safe Drivers
    Then they are free to introduce a new product that ships without a steering wheel and call it whatever they want.
     
    • Funny x 2
  8. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Active Member

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    I do like your idea for a "robotaxi" option. But I imagine when Tesla does get to robotaxis, they may just sell special Model 3's with no steering wheel rather than sell a "robotaxi" software package. Although I guess they could do both.

    But think how silly it will be with some cars with a "Full Self-Driving" package that can't actually self-drive and other cars with "Enhanced Full Self-Driving" that can!

    It could only make sense if the FSD package on AP3 actually does get to L4 autonomy and then "Enhanced Full Self-Driving" is L5 autonomy. Then both would be full self-driving but one would be better full self-driving that then other. That could work.
     
  9. Az_Rael

    Az_Rael Supporting Member

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    Yes, but don't forget about the "regulations" clause in what we all bought. Tesla might decide (or regulators might) that additional sensor redundancy is required. Tesla now can't get current FSD cars to Level 3, so they pull the regulation card and move on to FSD 2.0. FSD 1.0 cars are left with Level 2 "FSD" forever.
     
  10. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Active Member

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    I was talking to @Daniel in SD the other day, and I think the best term for the new L5 package would be "True Self-Driving."
     
  11. Daniel in SD

    Daniel in SD Active Member

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    It is silly but it is what it is. I'm thinking they will call many revisions of the hardware and software Full Self Driving and then when they finally get it to work they'll call it Autonomous Full Self Driving.
    They'll never do that because that would imply that FSD was a fraud! The cars will have Full Self Driving but won't be autonomous.
    I think the "dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers" clause is the key caveat (why would more redundancy be required if it already has reliability far in excess of humans?). If HW3 can't achieve that then they still have no obligation to upgrade you to HW4+ unless they can't deliver the promised non-autonomous features.
     
  12. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Active Member

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    FSD is not all or nothing. For example, Tesla could achieve full self-driving for highway driving on the current sensors but not achieve full self-driving for city driving. I could see the current sensors not being good enough for city self-driving because of the complexities of city driving. I am actually a bit skeptical that Tesla can do city FSD with just vision because of how nutty city driving can be. But Tesla's sensors do seem strongest at highway driving, with the 3 front cameras and front radar. That set up is very good for highway driving where looking forward is so critical. The fact that Tesla has done more towards highway self-driving than with city self-driving seems to support that.

    So, if the current sensors are indeed good enough that Tesla does achieve Highway FSD but not good enough for City FSD, then Tesla could rename the current FSD as "Highway FSD" and then offer a new "City FSD" package on future hardware.

    Sorry but I still think that having a package called "Full Self-Driving" and another called "True Self-Driving" sounds a bit silly. So one package is FULL self-driving but it's not true self-driving?

    How about an "autonomous driving" option?

    "Full Self-Driving" = "feature complete" highway and city driver assist

    "Autonomous Driving" = actual full autonomous driving
     
    • Funny x 1
  13. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Active Member

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    Exactly.

    TBH, it all sounds a bit silly. This self-driving stuff seems like it is going to be impossible!
     
  14. timewasted

    timewasted Member

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    Once full self driving is achieved, what will happen is that Elon will wake up from his fever dream, scoop the Ambien pills that are strewn about his desk back into the bottle, and then go ask the team if they’ve figured out how to make the car stop crashing into fire trucks yet. They will tell him no but they added a new fart noise which will briefly cheer him up. When he finishes talking with the team he’ll mutter something about “bunch of pedos” then tweet that a million robotaxis are ahead of schedule. The cycle will then repeat.
     
  15. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Florida has already made self-driving cars legal.

    If other states follow Florida, there will be no regulations at all - just that the owner has to take full responsibility - just like the driver does now.
     
  16. Seattle Tom

    Seattle Tom Member

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    That opens Tesla up to incredible liability not just restricted to the price of FSD, but for the price of the car (“I wouldn’t have bought the car but for FSD”).

    Past promises of FSD don’t offer them the flexibility to limit the feature to just the highways unfortunately, at least for customers who bought pre-2019.

    0BAB9AB6-4DF8-4F45-895F-8EADD280E7D6.jpeg
     
    • Informative x 1
  17. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Active Member

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    Really, Tesla is stuck with the name "FSD" no matter what. They picked a name that implies full autonomy. They can't get around that. Any change in name now would be terrible PR. I think Tesla's best move would be to stick with the name "FSD" for all future hardware and software until they get to full autonomy whenever that is.
     
  18. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    If they get to a robotaxi stage, they won't be selling anything. They will put all the cars they can build on their network to make money.

    Ofcourse all current Teslas will get the full FSD software, so that they can be put on the network too. Tesla can get a good cut of the money made on the network.

    So, no - there won't be anything "after" FSD. If new computer is needed for robotaxi, they will upgrade HW3 too for free. They can make up that cost in less than a month.
     
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  19. BigD0g

    BigD0g Active Member

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    I love this, but the issue is none of this is in the purchase agreement, and they have all sorts of legal lingo / loopholes saying basically, we don't have to do this. FSD (Lvl 5 ) as we know it is a myth folks, at least with the current hardware.
     
  20. diplomat33

    diplomat33 Active Member

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    I know that is a common assumption on this forum but I am not sure that it is proven definitely yet. Tesla has not shown us what FSD really looks like yet on the current hardware. Until, we see what Tesla's FSD looks like, we can't compare it to L5 to see if the hardware is good enough. Now, if Tesla changes the hardware drastically on us by adding different camera set up or adding a lot more radar or even, (gasp) adding LIDAR when Elon swore up and down he wouldn't, then yes, we could conclude that the current hardware can't do L5. But that has not happened yet. I think it is still too early to definitely conclude one way or the other about Tesla's FSD chances.
     

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