What analysis of EV vs ICE is readily available?

[LukeT]

Picking up a little piece by BBC's Reality Check today as an example, I saw the issues raised but very little quantified, and if you don't quantify these points they don't count for much.

Can anyone recommend independent well presented, concise information explaining the difference in environmental impact of electric vs ICE, and at least trying to cover the whole picture?

I have my own layman's view (and some experience in utility scale electricity generation) but it's very incomplete.

It strikes me that we should be able fairly easily and clearly to present emissions over the whole flow of energy, for a mile driven by each, something like:

Mining, refining and transport of fuel to power stations
Efficiency of power stations
Applying UK energy mix
Grid losses
Charging losses
Then motor etc losses in the car, but you know Wh of charged battery per mile so that's covered.

Vs
Mining, refining and transport of fuel to petrol stations
Efficiency of engine but as above it's covered in mpg
Etc

The analysis is in principal not hard but the output only any good with good data in. And in mainstream media mostly only tailpipe emissions seem to be applied on the ICE side.

There are also of course other points like car manufacturing as well.

 

[Yev000]

Well, I'm sure you can search for all this online...

Car manufacturing is about the same impact, but the miles covered with the same amount of energy is quite different. EV is about 90% efficient while ICE is about 25-50%. Mining for lithium vs fracking? Fracking is worse.

"Modern gasoline engines have a maximum thermal efficiency of about 25% to 50% when used to power a car. In other words, even when the engine is operating at its point of maximum thermal efficiency, of the total heat energy released by the gasoline consumed, about 50-75% of total power is emitted as heat without being turned into useful work, i.e. turning the crankshaft."

Grid transmission losses can be anything between 3.1% to 10% in the UK (its a small country)

In the UK you can buy power from 100% renewable suppliers like Bulb at about 13p/KWh today. So even with 10% transmission loss and 90% electric motor efficiency you are only losing 20% of renewable energy.

With regards to particulate emissions, there is an argument to be made that heavier cars have larger resuspension emissions (wake). From an global warming point of view that's not very important (rain brings it back down, no warming effect). From a health (breathing it in) point of view, you probably don't want to live next to a motorway.

All this is readily available via a quick search and on wiki.

 

[Carl.UK.3]

I found this YouTube video quite good.

 

[LukeT]

Well, I'm sure you can search for all this online...

Point taken! And I'm with you on the EV and grid efficiency numbers. I perhaps didn't explain my question quite right - the challenge I perceive is not so much finding info on the subject, it's getting full context, info that accounts for emissions/efficiency all the way through rather than (for example) just at the car in the case of ICEs. I'm sure there's good stuff out there, I'm just after a pointer in the right direction and I suspect folk on here will be a million miles ahead of me.

I also come across wide variability and vested interest pieces albeit sifting through them isn't insurmountable. EG, emissions payback on increased manufacturing impact of EVs, an argument you can find played out both ways.

 

[ewoodrick]

There are hundreds of published comparisons and a good number are blatantly wrong.

 

[vitesse]

There are hundreds of published comparisons and a good number are blatantly wrong.

So we need to find some consensus on which are nearest to the truth.

 

[vitesse]

I hear that the production of an EV battery pack causes a lot of carbon to be emitted. I'd like to find an explanation for this. If it's caused by electricity generated for use in the production process, could that not be sourced from renewables?

 

[squarepeg77]

This Teslarati article attempts well-to-wheel calculations:
Energy expert explains why Tesla and the electric car industry is here to stay

 

[WannabeOwner]

I'm just after a pointer in the right direction

Here's a tangent (Dunno if it is a suitable answer to the question, but it might be an answer to someone in the pub saying "Your EV is no more ecologically sound than my ICE".)

Put a gallon of fuel in a generator, charge your EV, it will drive farther than a gallon put into a decently efficient ICE [Link]

The generator is running at optimum revs of course, whereas that car runs at a range of revs and has to have emission control suitable for all revs.

Now buy your electricity from somewhere that doesn't make it from Petroleum and has better efficiency than the small generator in your garage ... or, get your electricity from Coal, but over the lifetime of the car make that supply increasingly more Green.

I hear that the production of an EV battery pack causes a lot of carbon to be emitted

That sort of assertion needs to be considered over the lifetime for the Total Cost of Ownership.

Most of what I have seen suggests that manufacture of EV is worse, but the net-cost equals out quite quickly - more so for higher mileage drivers - 3 years or less.

There is also the possibility (not enough "stuff" yet, so no economy-of-scale drivers for breakthroughs to have been made yet), that battery recycle will reclaim a very significant proportion of the raw materials.

 

[vitesse]

I've been doing more reading and it seems that Nevada Tesla's Gigafactory subsidises its grid supply with a big solar farm. Nevada also has a lot of wind and hydro power, so I would expect Tesla to claim that their batteries have less of a carbon footprint than packs built, say, in China.

Germany, which is shutting down its nuclear power stations, has had to ramp up coal electricity, so my assumption is that Bimmers, Mercs, VWs and the rest all have a big carbon footprint to start with. Our Model S was built in Fremont, California, one of the greenest of the US states, so less carbon than the Germans from day one. Our three year old car will also have mostly caught up with a petrol equivalent so from now on I can feel good about our CO2 savings, especially as we source our electricity from a renewables supplier (currently Outfox the Market).

 

[WannabeOwner]

Tesla's Gigafactory subsidises its grid supply with a big solar farm

I think I read it plans to general all the energy it needs from Solar? The factory roof is not yet covered in PV, but that is coming (dunno what actual area of PV the factory needs for 100% generation ... I expect its more than just the factory roof, even though they've picked a nice sunny location

Our three year old car will also have mostly caught up with a petrol equivalent

Superchargers all powered by Green Juice from Ecotricity I think ?

Actually: I wonder what the position is for CYC, Polar, Ionity etc.? Maybe the same ... here's hoping.

 

[Akikiki]

I don't care if there's a comparison or analysis. I've already decided that I gave up on ICE when I drove my first Tesla.
(Mic drop.)

 

[LukeT]

This Teslarati article attempts well-to-wheel calculations:
Energy expert explains why Tesla and the electric car industry is here to stay

Interesting. He gets to a 94% reduction in operating emissions in moving from a golf to a MS. That looks like an outlier among the selection of articles I've read, so bells ring a bit and I'd like to get under the skin of it. 94%! He does add that the first 20,000km are required to pay back increased manufacturing emissions, so if you call that 10% of the life of the car the overall reduction comes down to say 85%.

He then later adds a note on oil industry emissions, although I'm not sure whether they are already reflected in the percentages above. If not then the 85% goes up.

A point to note is how different these percentages are from, for example:
Gasoline vs Electric—Who Wins on Lifetime Global Warming Emissions? We Found Out

(53% and they're comparing with a "full size gasoline car" which, being a US article, won't be a Golf)

Differences will, I think, be mostly about regional variation in energy mix, albeit I find it hard to believe that will account for all of it. The UK is quite good on that, but nowhere near the best.

 

[WannabeOwner]

regional variation in energy mix

obvious point but that will improve during lifetime of vehicle, which is not the case for ICE (and ICE efficiency will reduce with age so I presume? emissions will increase)

 

[LukeT]

I don't care if there's a comparison or analysis. I've already decided that I gave up on ICE when I drove my first Tesla.
(Mic drop.)

Fair enough. I'm not suggesting this conclusion hangs in the balance. I'm there. Rather than "is it better or worse" I'm just interested in improving quality of info and better understanding "how much better".

I'd argue it's still important though, because as well as the choice of what car we drive, we have the choices of lifestyle around it, which affect whether we drive a car, or at least, how much.

 

[vitesse]

This is all good info. I have several friends who are fossil fuel fanatics and EV sceptics so I want to be ready to rebut their smug remarks once our Model S is revealed. The ROLEC on the front of the house is a bit of a give away to the neighbours but they don't know what the car is yet

My wife has already come up with one strategy; she will invite any naysayer to come and stand at the back of the Tesla and inhale the exhaust...

 

[WannabeOwner]

I want to be ready to rebut their smug remarks once our Model S is revealed

All the petrol heads who have been out in my Model-S have turned Green

she will invite any naysayer to come and ...

make them up a bed in the back, in Winter, and leave Climate Control on

we have the choices of lifestyle around it, which affect whether we drive a car, or at least, how much.

I'm on a different tack on that ... and have done a bit of an about-face.

Original objective: Reduce energy to zero.

I read meter readings once a week, put them in a Spreadsheet, pined it up on the wall ... family's eyes glazed over !!!

Reduced Electricity, Heating Oil by 50% (more energy efficient devices, insulation etc.)

Changed Boiler from oil to Biomass, put in rainwater harvesting. We already grew 80% of our home-consumed veg.

Moved from RS4 to Blue Motion Golf (at least a decade ago) ... then, thanks to Dieselgate, looked more carefully at the Car and realised that Tesla had a solution that I could actually use (i.e. range).

Concurrent with all that we built Passive House (objective still "Zero energy"), we've had both Solar Thermal and Solar PV on the roof for nearly 10 years ...

My new tack is that I want to be comfortable. I could live in a cave, that would be zero energy ... back then Man did ...

Actually I should have fitted reversible ASHP to my UFH so that I could cool it in summer - but back then my "Zero Energy" tack prohibited that.

Now I want to generate all my own energy, in an environmentally sound fashion, and then live as comfortably as I like.

I never bought a Ferrari as it was so impractical and would have had so little use. Now I have a EV car that is faster (and carries 5 people and all the luggage they could possibly need)

I am retro-installing ASHP for Summer Cooling - plenty of EV in that season

I'm not expecting to leave all the lights on all the time ... muscle memory now in place to prevent that (and, anyway the Lutron HA will turn off anything accidentally left on once daylight is available ...) but I don't think there is any need to adopt a "frugal" lifestyle. Green Energy is going to be plentiful, even if you don't make it yourself / locally.

Sure, it needs thought through to be environmentally sound, but it is early days just now. Loads more improvements lie ahead ... no need to be planning to live like a hermit and give up a whole lot of things that would make life miserable.

People saying "We'll all need to become vegans" is a huge turnoff to most people. It would be much better to tell them to cut down on meat ... and next year to tell them to cut down a bit more. Like 3-a-day became 5-a-day and now, what, 10-a-day? Wifey and I have dramatically cut down on meat over the last half dozen years anyway. Maybe the new Meatless Burgers will do me ... My kids are on a much more planet-friendly diet from the get-go. They give us "Who Gives a Crap" loo paper for Christmas ...

I take a fly-holiday maybe twice a decade. But if flight became Eco ... and if getting through the airport wasn't such a cattle-herding experience ... I might fly more.

My advice: Don't sacrifice for sacrifice sake. All lifestyle changes come with consequences - we have to be home to light the Biomass boiler, that severally restricted our ability to go anywhere during the winter ... but the passive House loses about 1C a day in mid winter (if no heat input) ... so no longer a big deal.

we have the choices of lifestyle around it, which affect whether we drive a car, or at least, how much.

Unnecessary journeys were always just that ... but for the rest, we can figure out a way that you can drive all the journeys you want to, just need to make sure the energy used (cradle-to-grave) is sustainable.

 

[vitesse]

One of our uni-age daughters is taking a keen pro-active stance on eco-friendiness; she is cutting back on meat, buys eco-friendly cleaning stuff and soaps/cosmetics and has been egging us on to go EV. Can't wait to reveal the Tesla to her!

I our house uses considerably less energy than it used to thanks to improved glazing, a switch to a more efficient boiler, LED lighting, etc.

There is more to be done with insulation though and we don't have cavity walls as it's a 1920s house.

I work at home (no commuting of course) and during the day only have the heating on in winter during the daytime if it's particularly cold and even then the thermostat is only set to 18C.

We have also cut down on meat a bit, definitely more fish, and do eat a lot of veg. We want to grow more but the garden has its limits.

The Tesla is likely to be our biggest contributor to reducing CO2.

 

[WannabeOwner]

the thermostat is only set to 18C

Mine is set to keep downstairs in the nice toasty 21-22C range ... it is mostly heated by waste heat from cooking and lighting anyway, the kWh top-up heat is tiny (relatively). (No heating at all upstairs, but if falls to 18C quite rarely during winter ...)

Need to deal with all these old inefficient houses ... trouble is "Upgrade" is an absolute nightmare.

Replace your ICY house with an nice ECO one?

 

[LukeT]

It's a slightly different subject but all comes under one's carbon footprint of course.

We're also building a house. Nearly there with it. One of my big takeaways from that has been around how surprisingly unusual it is to find people who are forward thinking in that industry. For example, I flagged up the question early on around triple glazing, to 3 different professionals. All said, essentially, it makes a bit of a difference but is too expensive to be worth it. So I tried to get out of them the two sides of this - how much better and how much money. None had a full picture.

So I did a bit of fag packet maths myself. I reckoned that over 70% of the heat conducted out (leakage is a different issue) through walls, roof, floor etc was through glass, and by moving from double to triple I could halve that. Cost increase of double was 1% of build cost. Reduced cost of reducing the spec of my heating not factored in, because I didn't do it, for other reasons, but it could've saved maybe half the uplift in cost to triple. Comfort impact also positive. So I felt it was a very easy decision to go for it. Yet blindly following the professionals' advice would perhaps have led me the other way.

Ventilation was another interesting area. Ours, a barn conversion, can't get to Passivhaus standards but I've aimed in that direction. Building industry and regs want to cut holes in a house left right and centre. And then they tape over them to test for air tightness. We worked at each opportunity to find another way, so none of these holes. I am working on the principle this makes a big difference too, although we're not in yet.

None of these things is ground-breaking, or even new, yet they're non-standard enough that I had to force them in. That's a shame I think, and also a bit of a risk until we're in and can judge truly their effectiveness.

Like you @WannabeOwner I take the view that most of these things will make life both lower impact AND more comfortable. And although some are quite expensive, many of them cost nothing (or less even).