What are the chances of Autopilot 3.0?

[Bebop]

Do you think something like AP 3.0 hardware would come out in the next 2-3 years? (based on timeline of AP1 and AP2.)

My thinking is..maybe? I mean I feel probably not for another 5-7 years if anything. If you release a 3.0 in the next 2 years then you would screw over I feel a bunch of Model 3 owners who haven't even gotten their car yet and are still in line.

Is there really any point for a 3.0 if the car is fully autonomous with 2.0? I mean I suppose to add even further refinement to the system. What would you add in a 3.0 release to make it substantially better than 2.0 Full Autonomy?

 

[Derek Kessler]

There's a real question if Tesla will be able to achieve full autonomy with the AP2 cameras + radar. AP3 isn't out of the question.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Well, Elon went on record saying that new hardware would come in 12-18 months. In theory that could mean an AP2.5 or AP3 already this autumn. AP 2.5 is already being discussed as code for it exists in the codebase...

AP2.0 Cameras: Capabilities and Limitations?

The timespan between AP1 and AP2 was two years, but even then there was the "AP 1.5" Tesla had been working on (the one with two front cameras and possibly rear radars) but that did not make it into production - it could have come with the Model S facelift, so 1.5 years after AP1, or even with Model X launch one year after AP1...

Is Model X (or was?) getting an "AP 1.5" before full-autonomous "AP 2.0" suite upgrade?

Even though there is still a lot Tesla can and needs do with AP2 before it maxes out, one thing that to me supports the idea of an AP 2.5 or 3.0 is the upgrade of the dash screens / computer / possible HUD, that is happening due to Model 3 and rumored to come to S/X as well.

Upgrading these other elements might include an upgrade to the AP2 computer/architecture as well, for example because the new dash screens and computers make possible different connections, different use-cases for the cameras than the "legacy" system currently in use...

There's a real question if Tesla will be able to achieve full autonomy with the AP2 cameras + radar. AP3 isn't out of the question.

Yeah, the lack of a 360 radar or even rear radar adds to the lack of redundancy - and of course there is the whole conversation about lidar too. Also, the AP2 cameras do not see all around the car very near it, they have significant "black" areas on the front sides and in the front. Adding a nose camera for example could be useful in many scenarios.

 

[DOCAL]

I would think it's almost certain that at some point there will be an AP3 (and later).
One thing that comes to mind is communication - both to surrounding cars as well as to things such as traffic lights.

Car to car could be for safety - if one car slams its brakes on (autonomously or by the driver), it could send out a signal to help prevent a pile up of cars behind. Outside of emergencies, as we get more autonomous cars on the road, they may want to tell each other about their intentions to change lanes, and have other cars make space for them.

Car to environment (traffic lights etc), could help with traffic flow. Maybe it would be better for a bunch of cars to slow slightly and bunch up to get a green light, rather than having to stop and then slowly move away again.

 

[Bebop]

I would think it's almost certain that at some point there will be an AP3 (and later).
One thing that comes to mind is communication - both to surrounding cars as well as to things such as traffic lights.

Car to car could be for safety - if one car slams its brakes on (autonomously or by the driver), it could send out a signal to help prevent a pile up of cars behind. Outside of emergencies, as we get more autonomous cars on the road, they may want to tell each other about their intentions to change lanes, and have other cars make space for them.

Car to environment (traffic lights etc), could help with traffic flow. Maybe it would be better for a bunch of cars to slow slightly and bunch up to get a green light, rather than having to stop and then slowly move away again.

That is very enlightening. Totally makes sense with the whole communicating with other cars and telling them your intention of what you are going to do.

 

[Matias]

Do you think something like AP 3.0 hardware would come out in the next 2-3 years? (based on timeline of AP1 and AP2.)

AP hardware revision in next 2-3 years is 100% sure. Code already refers to AP 2.5.

The only question is, how many revisions there will be in that time.

 

[jim5359]

There will be an uproar if Tesla releases AP 2.5 or 3.0 hardware before AP 2.0 provides full self driving capability. A lot of people paid $3K extra for the FSD capability, so if it turns out that AP 2.0 does not have the hardware capable of providing this there will be lawsuits for sure. Unless they provide free hardware upgrades, or at a minimum a credit toward the purchase of a new vehicle.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

There will be an uproar if Tesla releases AP 2.5 or 3.0 hardware before AP 2.0 provides full self driving capability. A lot of people paid $3K extra for the FSD capability, so if it turns out that AP 2.0 does not have the hardware capable of providing this there will be lawsuits for sure. Unless they provide free hardware upgrades, or at a minimum a credit toward the purchase of a new vehicle.

Model 3 already has AP2.5, what that exactly means is not yet known.

 

[Rafaelm]

Model 3 already has AP2.5, what that exactly means is not yet known.

please expand.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

please expand.

AP HW 2.5 in Model 3 is being discussed on the last pages of this thread as we speak:

AP2.0 Cameras: Capabilities and Limitations?

 

[NikeWings]

Do you think something like AP 3.0 hardware would come out in the next 2-3 years? (based on timeline of AP1 and AP2.)

 

[Lex]

Ahh, the delicate balance between continuously elated customers and technological progress... the game Apple plays so well.

Tesla is no Apple in the way they handle future products and features, that is for sure, as they leak and even pre-sell future features instead of firewalling them (even from other employees).

And, while taking advantage of the free publicity of social media and adoration of loyal customers and fans around the world, it could just take a stumble or two to make it all end -- Elon said it himself in the recent Governors' talk, imagine if all Tesla cars were seized by a hacker and driven somewhere. It would be Game Over.

But as jim5359 said, though maybe not Game Over it could be a major setback if "Full Self Driving" cannot be delivered with the current AP2 sensors, cameras, and CPU. To me there seem to be 3 major question marks:
1. Lack of 3D sensors -- LIDAR, or at least 3D vision.
2. Lack of onboard processing power.
3. Software to account for emergency vehicles, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

Though if indeed these first 2 are real problems, perhaps both could be resolved with retrofits to current AP2 cars, unlike with AP1 to AP2...

#3 just takes time and effort... as long as the right sensors and processors are in place that is

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

At the very least they have to add car to car communication like other manufactures have done.

The AP CPU/GPU was always meant to be a drop in replacement. The only question is when it will be upgraded and if it will cost $$'s to have upgraded.

I expect to see the AP computer update around once every year or two.

 

[TallPaulS]

There will be an uproar if Tesla releases AP 2.5 or 3.0 hardware before AP 2.0 provides full self driving capability. A lot of people paid $3K extra for the FSD capability, so if it turns out that AP 2.0 does not have the hardware capable of providing this there will be lawsuits for sure. Unless they provide free hardware upgrades, or at a minimum a credit toward the purchase of a new vehicle.

This is absolutely correct. There will definitely be >AP2 eventually. I'm fine with that. But I'm one of those people that bought a car supposedly capable of Full Self Driving along with all the options that entails (In fact this was the primary interest, even more than the electric). If I don't get it, as much as I love my Tesla, they will most assuredly be hearing from me.

 

[Bebop]

There will be an uproar if Tesla releases AP 2.5 or 3.0 hardware before AP 2.0 provides full self driving capability. A lot of people paid $3K extra for the FSD capability, so if it turns out that AP 2.0 does not have the hardware capable of providing this there will be lawsuits for sure. Unless they provide free hardware upgrades, or at a minimum a credit toward the purchase of a new vehicle.

Yeah, I agree completely. I would imagine that if such a thing happened, you could have the ability to retrofit AP3 to an AP2 car. They really should make it retrofittable.

 

[dhanson865]

CPU/GPU upgrade with replaceable parts for AP2 to AP3 could happen before the next decade.

Additional hardware that can't be easily fitted to AP2 cars already on a the road, not going to happen in 2 years or less.

 

[outie]

Yeah, I agree completely. I would imagine that if such a thing happened, you could have the ability to retrofit AP3 to an AP2 car. They really should make it retrofittable.

Retrofitting is one of the last things Tesla focuses on nowadays. They want you to upgrade / trade in to boost their sales, and they don't want SC bogged down by retrofits, especially with Model 3 deliveries.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I don't see a potential AP3 as retrofittable, unless AP3 means just a new computer box and not new sensors. New sensors will not be retrofittable, I estimate (outside of extreme hobbyist projects).

But I do see AP2 as a potential subset system to AP3, sure. AP3 could just have more redundancy, more capability/security in more situations, while AP2 would still do most of the things.

We shall see.

 

[JeffK]

They are doubling down on vision based systems. If anything gets upgraded, it's just going to be the computer unless there's some major flaw in what they've got now.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

They are doubling down on vision based systems. If anything gets upgraded, it's just going to be the computer unless there's some major flaw in what they've got now.

Even vision could use redundancy. They could add more cameras, for example.

But I'm not counting radar, more ultrasonics or even lidar completely out yet. We shall see. They talk vision, because that is what they are doing right now, but it could all change and the talk changes with the production/plan changes...

Talking of flaws, we already know of a couple of iterations of the side marker cameras... one of which is a mandatory new part for Korea?