What can we expect in the next model Y? (2022 model)

[carvana]

Looking at this:

Tesla Model Y redesign: price, release date, specs, and battery range for the 2021 model

Tesla's compact SUV, aimed at the budget market, is getting some changes. Here's what's in store with the Model Y redesign, from release date and price to battery specs and new features

www.inverse.com

Realistically, what can we get in the next model Y?
Thanks.

 

[Watts_Up]

Realistically, what can we get in the next model Y?

Certainly the 4680 cells is the most expected change with a possible big increase range.
See below the article extract on this topic:

The new Model Y is expected to replace the older 2170 cells with 4680 cells. ​

Tesla claims these new cells offer a 54 percent increase in battery range.​

​

Tesla has yet to reveal the battery range for the new vehicles. ​

The current Model Y Long Range offers an EPA-estimated range of 326 miles between charges. ​

A 54 percent increase would result in a range of 502 miles.​

​

There are many reasons why the range of the final vehicle could differ. ​

Tesla may use smaller batteries to reduce costs, offer larger batteries to boost range further, ​

or it could find that the “54 percent” figure doesn’t quite map perfectly onto the new Model Y.​

 

[Ogre]

We might see 4 versions of the Model Y in the next 12 months.

• Current (2170 cells, single cast rear assembly)
• Tera Texas v1 (2170 cells, single cast font & rear assembly)
• Tera Texas v2 (as v1 plus 4680 cells)
• Model Y w/ FSD Hardware 4

Other possible changes:

• Switch from mirrors to cameras
• Full Model S Plaid interior w/ yoke/ no stalks

Just the battery pack single assembly front end should result in weight savings improving performance and range. Replacing the mirrors with cameras would add range. Tesla suggested as much as 5%.

So without changing battery sizes, the Model Y SR might have 275-280 miles range and the Model Y LR perhaps as much as 400 miles.

Tesla doesn't do model years, they change things as the technology becomes available.

 

[iguana]

So I should cancel my Y order and wait for 500mi+ range beast

 

[Ogre]

So I should cancel my Y order and wait for 500mi+ range beast

If you want to wait until 2023 or maybe even 2024 to get your car.

We don't know when they will lick the production issues with the 4680 cells. Even if they are able to get them rolling soon, we don't know if they are giving the Cybertruck and the Semi preferential treatment on first 4680 cells off the line.

We don't even know what the next Model Y is going to be like. It's entirely possible Tesla will keep the range around 350 miles and just shrink the battery to save on costs and get more cars out the door.

On top of that, there is already a huge wait list for the Model Y. Doesn't seem like it's getting shorter any time soon.

 

[bluetrep1]

LFP battery standard range is what I want

 

[Watts_Up]

So I should cancel my Y order and wait for 500mi+ range beast

If you want to wait until 2023 or maybe even 2024 to get your car.

We don't know when they will lick the production issues with the 4680 cells. Even if they are able to get them rolling soon, we don't know if they are giving the Cybertruck and the Semi preferential treatment on first 4680 cells off the line.

We don't even know what the next Model Y is going to be like. It's entirely possible Tesla will keep the range around 350 miles and just shrink the battery to save on costs and get more cars out the door.

On top of that, there is already a huge wait list for the Model Y. Doesn't seem like it's getting shorter any time soon.

If you look at today Joe Tegtmeyer vido: Tesla Gigafactory Texas 20 September 2021 Cyber Truck & Model Y Factory Construction Update
at time 1:03 you will see that the Cell factory building is just starting to be build (see below the video picture extract)

 

[ilovecoffee]

100% Tesla will shrink the battery pack with the 4680 cells to be the equivalent mileage in order to decrease production cost. Great way to improve margins for all the battery development/cybertruck development going on.

 

[Ogre]

100% Tesla will shrink the battery pack with the 4680 cells to be the equivalent mileage in order to decrease production cost. Great way to improve margins for all the battery development/cybertruck development going on.

That's the thing, we don't really know what Tesla will do.

In the past they've done both. Increased range and shrank the battery in the same car. So a 375 mile Model Y with a 65kWh battery might be the next gen.

at time 1:03 you will see that the Cell factory building is just starting to be build

That's nice to see. Maybe that's an indication they are getting close with the 4680.

 

[thesmokingman]

That's the thing, we don't really know what Tesla will do.

We do know where Musk wants to go though. Watch his interview with Munro. He explains the goal is to make the Y modular in three pieces, front and rear castings with the structural battery. However the trick is juggling those three as the difficulty level is crazy high.

 

[Ogre]

We do know where Musk wants to go though. Watch his interview with Munro. He explains the goal is to make the Y modular in three pieces, front and rear castings with the structural battery. However the trick is juggling those three as the difficulty level is crazy high.

That is absolutely going to happen.

How many cells get stuffed into that structural battery is the big question.

Keep the existing range -> Means we get a lighter more agile and faster Model Y with ~320 miles range.
Keep the existing battery size -> We get a longer range, faster model Y with ~375-400 miles range.
Keep the existing weight -> Same performance and weight, 500 mile range

I doubt we'd get a 500 mile Model Y without a price increase. So likely one of the first 2 options.

 

[mnevar]

If you look at today Joe Tegtmeyer vido: Tesla Gigafactory Texas 20 September 2021 Cyber Truck & Model Y Factory Construction Update
at time 1:03 you will see that the Cell factory building is just starting to be build (see below the video picture extract)

View attachment 712304

That's the cathode plant. Battery factory is part of the main building.

 

[MY-user]

Certainly the 4680 cells is the most expected change with a possible big increase range.
See below the article extract on this topic:

The new Model Y is expected to replace the older 2170 cells with 4680 cells. ​

Tesla claims these new cells offer a 54 percent increase in battery range.​

​

Tesla has yet to reveal the battery range for the new vehicles. ​

The current Model Y Long Range offers an EPA-estimated range of 326 miles between charges. ​

A 54 percent increase would result in a range of 502 miles.​

​

There are many reasons why the range of the final vehicle could differ. ​

Tesla may use smaller batteries to reduce costs, offer larger batteries to boost range further, ​

or it could find that the “54 percent” figure doesn’t quite map perfectly onto the new Model Y.​

I doubt the range will increase that much. Most likely Tesla will downsize the battery with 4680 to add 30-50 miles of range and make the car lighter. MYLR weight is about the same as F150. This is an anomaly. This will also decrease the production cost.

 

[Ogre]

I doubt the range will increase that much. Most likely Tesla will downsize the battery with 4680 to add 30-50 miles of range and make the car lighter. MYLR weight is about the same as F150. This is an anomaly. This will also decrease the production cost.

I think it would be pretty awesome if they released a LR+ version of the Model Y with 500 miles range. I bump into range issues often enough I'd pony up for it.

 

[MY-user]

I think it would be pretty awesome if they released a LR+ version of the Model Y with 500 miles range. I bump into range issues often enough I'd pony up for it.

I see the temptation to have 500 mile range but the car is meant to be recharged every night. So most people will take advantage of this amazing range just a couple of times per year but the battery cost might turn off a lot of buyers.

 

[Ogre]

I see the temptation to have 500 mile range but the car is meant to be recharged every night. So most people will take advantage of this amazing range just a couple of times per year but the battery cost might turn off a lot of buyers.

Totally agree, it's not needed for everyone.

Typical Tesla range increase are roughly $10k/ 100 miles. So if there were an optional LR+ there would be a lot of self-selection.

There are enough places where I go where I bump up against range issues I'd pay an extra $10k for the extra miles. I suspect most people wouldn't.

EDIT/ Update: I don't think this will happen. It would be fantastic if it did, but not holding my breath.

 

[Wolfhausen]

You can realistically expect a price increase.