The US market is not a "tiny" part of the world market. For premiums, it is usually about 50%. For Tesla, it has been about 50%.
Now the 3 is smaller so it will have a bit greater success in parts of the world that prefer smaller - ie nearly everywhere but the US (and maybe Australia?)
Many expected the MR was a stopgap to maximize sales for 2018. Maybe the LR-rwd will come back?
Hard to know.
Tesla can ship the entire production of 2019 overseas and sell them. But that will kill cash flow for Q1. I think they will need a demand lever in the US so that they can sell 1/2 of production in the US for cash flow. It could be leasing. It could be free supercharging - although that is getting old. I am hopeful there will be a price decrease. Not $3750 but $2000 or so.
The US is not a "tiny part" of the world, however it is NOT the primary luxury market for most luxury manufacturers anymore... including the germans. China is (check the numbers if you dont think thats true).
"Rest of World" is as important / more important than "just US" from a profitability standpoint, and sales volume point as well. I believe that demand (and sales) in "rest of world" will do more to make tesla profitable than the US.
Saying that, the US is still an important market, and its Tesla's home market. Winning your "home" market tends to be important to Car manufacturers, or at least doing well in it.
I believe that Tesla captures incredible momentum in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2018. In the US specifically, the ability for people to actually test drive the product, and get one inside of 2 weeks is HUGE. "Joe / Jane car shopper" does not want to order a car, and is not going to buy a car sight unseen. Ordering cars and buying cars sight unseen is for enthusiast type people (like you find on forums). As I said in another thread, forums represent a small fraction of buyers. A VERY vocal one, but a small one.
The more teslas there are on the road, the more "joe / jane car buyer" will think its "ok" to consider a tesla. Many people do not want to "take a chance" on a purchase as large as a car. They want an established brand, that doesnt cause them problems getting to work. They also want validation from "others"... as in seeing them on the road means that "it must be OK to look at them because john down the street got one..."
I believe that tesla has reached that point, and has also done something extremely hard to do, which is present itself as a "premium" product. It normally takes a LONG time for people to buy into the "premiumness" of a brand, and the US specifically is VERY brand conscious when it comes to cars. See Toyota / Lexus, Nissan / Infinity, Honda / Accura, Hyundai / Genesis. US consumers like their car brands to say something about themselves.
Normally when someone says this, people on forums say "I dont care about the brand, etc" but as I said, forum members represent a small fraction of buyers. There are TONS of buyers who buy a BMW or a Mercedes, lowest trim, just to get the logo because "they want to drive a BMW / Mercedes".
Tesla has managed to get their cars into that discussion among Joe / Jane buyer. I have been driving BMWs for around 14 years now, and have worked at my current job for 13 years. The last 6 I have driven a BMW 335 and then a BMW 435 to work. When I showed up in my Tesla, as I was passing through the entry gate to work, I was passing a director who was leaving for the day. She saw my car and said " WoW!! Niiiiccccee Tesla!!!" and this is a person who saw me come and go in my 435 plenty of times (never saying anything), and was driving a Mercedes E class.
Anyway, back on thread topic.
Next year I think we will see:
1. A refresh of the Model S, with something to present more visual differentiation from the Model 3, and lessons learned from Model 3.
2. Price cuts / incentives to cover most / all of the Tax rebate loss, starting in feb /march
3. Continuous tinkering with the UI, both adding and taking away features, to the consternation of people on forums but no one else
4. Increased speed for the Model 3 P via software update.
5. Continued ability of tesla to deliver "ordered" cars in <2 weeks
6. Continued momentum of "other brands" to the "threat" that is tesla and EVs in general, with increased focus by them and a huge push to get them out.
7. Continued push toward a unified Fast charging standard in the US.
8. Introduction of the "35K" model 3 in the third quarter of 2019, with it actually being 38.75 to get to the 35k including the tax credit.
9. 35k version NOT including all the same external hardware sensors, as a few others have said, but made so that it could be retrofitted in.
10. Hype around Model Y, near the end of the year, with current model 3 owners upset about X or Y feature that is new in the model y but not in the model 3, just like has happened with model 3 and model S/X owners.
