What do you think the Ontario rebate ending will do to resale value of EVs?

[pcons]

There are more than enough threads right now talking about the impact of losing the rebate to new EV sales, but what about the impact to used EV sales? Do you think this may put used EVs in more demand?

In my situation I'm going to be upgrading from my 2017 Chevy Volt premier to the all-wheel-drive model 3. I'm wondering after the dust settles if the average sale price of my volt will go up over the next few months?

Either way I'm following through with my all-wheel-drive model 3 order, I'm just curious what other people think.

Specifically about the all-wheel drive version of the model 3. It obviously really sucks if it never gets added to the rebate list/all teslas are possibly not qualified now anyway (as discussed in the other rebate thread). But, if nobody gets the rebate for the AWD, the Silver Lining to that would then be since everybody paid "full price" the resale value on an all-wheel drive down the road should be significantly higher than a rear wheel drive. This would be because there would be no easy way of knowing if the owner got the rebate in the first batch of RWD or not.

Alternatively, since a few years from now there's presumably going to be a huge amount of model 3s on the road the rebate may not factor into the resale value at all since proportion wise 95% of the rwd would have been full price. Then it would end up that the lucky ones that got the rebate on the rear wheel drive will just end up with a second bonus when they sell the car. Thoughts on this?

 

[sidmini]

think value will go up of used.

 

[ben1628]

it just mean it won't depreciate as much

 

[ksumnole]

I assume that cars will be treated as if people paid full price without a rebate. Since there are only a couple thousand that got the rebate and the price to buy new will be $14,000 more. To me, it doesn't matter what price the original owner paid, it matters how much the buyer must pay to get into a new version of the same car at that time. You then use depreciation to decide if you want to go with a new one or a used one. If it will cost me $70K for a 2019 Model 3 and I can get a used 2018 Model 3 for $56K, I am likely going to buy the $56K vehicle. But that is just me.

So, for the lucky (or decisive) couple thousand people that got the $14,000 rebate, I believe you essentially get a year or two of depreciation for free. Good news for us!

 

[Munch]

Just curious, what is the rule of thumb in terms of car depreciation? How much can we expect the Model 3 LR PUP to depreciate each year assuming average driving?

 

[ewoodrick]

In Georgia, a few years ago, the $5,000 USD rebate was killed by the state and known to disappear on a certain date. That was around 2016 and there was a lot of sales going into the discontinuance, especially with the Leaf leases at $179. But the day of the end of the rebate, sales went to 0.
In reality, the sales were starting to decline anyway, the Leaf and Volt were getting a little old and the Bolt wasn't here yet. So it was a weak demand.
But this year, with the Bolt, the 2018 Leaf and the Model 3, sales are picking back up and folks are getting excited again.
While the end of credits is going to hurt, I think that the existence of new cars is going to keep the market relatively happy. I see very few Model 3s rejected because of no rebate. I've heard that there may be a possibility with new political climate that the rebates may come back, that's going to be the worse thing, because people will wait.

As to depreciation, the Leaf got hit really hard with a lot of cars coming off lease at the same time. A dump in price, plus that fact that no one counts the rebate into the car price shows huge depreciation.
While the Tesla seems to be holding price, Why would I buy a 1 day old care, when a brand new one is (in the US) $7,500 cheaper? That tends to mean that you are getting more than $7,500 depreciation,

 

[SmartElectric]

In Ontario there will be some extra value in used market, but these sales need to compete with other jurisdictions. Ie. Buy used from Quebec in late 2019. They’ll still be getting $8k for a while longer this year.