I suspect the door handles on the Model 3 will be hot spot handles like on the Model X without the auto door opening mechanism. Those hot spot door handles can be done very cheap and have no added drag.
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I suspect the door handles on the Model 3 will be hot spot handles like on the Model X without the auto door opening mechanism. Those hot spot door handles can be done very cheap and have no added drag.
ProphetM
Member
I would agree with that. Over in the Model X forum the assumption is that without the auto-opening turned on, the latch just disengages on touch and the door pops out on its own far enough to grab. This seems like one of those things that feels high tech but might actually be simpler and cheaper than a standard door handle. I've wondered the same thing about the Model S's screens. Once you remove all the mechanical buttons and knobs and switches and interface boards and gauges, might a touchscreen actually be cheaper?
I think that's a secret to Tesla's success. The touchscreen moves a lot of things that are electronic hardware intensive designs to the world of the software programmers. The tech industry found years ago that moving designs from hardware to software saves money over the long run in most cases. Software is expensive up front, but each copy costs very little to nothing.
Phones have eliminated almost all the buttons in favor of soft buttons. The public generally likes it because it makes the phone all the more flexible and more programs can be written for them that do new things. But it also saves the phone makers a lot of money in development costs and enables them to update the phones almost weekly. Tesla basically copied this idea for the Model S.
My guess is that it will be around 20k for Sig Reservation. They will need as much capital they can borrow interest free as possible from the potential buyers.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
.... I would bet my MS that the M3 will have supercharger access at least as an option....
Given that the sig version of model X config page screen shots include 'supercharging enabled' as included, it will be an option for sure for the model 3. definitely not included in the base version but you could enable it for 2k ish or comes included with battery upgrade (I think RWD 70 has supercharging included as opposed to 60kwh that didnt)
MichFin
Member
Really long wait before the low end models will be available. People will be jumping all over the $45-50k models.
strider
Active Member
Not going to happen. Tesla needs SIGNIFICANT battery cost reductions before they can even make the cheaper versions. The gigafactory will take years to wring out those reductions. They can bury higher battery costs in the premium models so they can sell them earlier and then as battery prices drop they'll build the lower end models. Seriously, I wouldn't expect to receive a base Model 3 for a year after Sigs start shipping.
I don't think Porsche is the right analog - they are scared of killing 911 sales and so won't put a decent motor in the Cayman (it would murder the 911 if given a fair chance). For Porsche your explanation makes sense but is not common among manufacturers IMO (For example the Cadillac ATS-V and CTS-V have very similar performance but the ATS-V is $20k cheaper). Elon has stated that the BMW 3 series is their target. The BMW M4 is quicker and faster than the BMW M5 while costing less. Doesn't stop them from selling M5's. Some people want a larger car. Further, it's possible that the profit margin on a PDL Model 3 will be higher than a PDL Model S (due to more steel or other design differences to simplify manufacturing) so Tesla may actually want to steer the performance junkies to Model 3's instead of Model S's. Now I'm biased here as I want the current P90DL drivetrain or better in a Model 3 - that will be a sub 3-second car.
But to answer the OP's question, 200-mile range and similar performance and amenities to a base BMW 3-series.
MiamiNole
Member
We'll see. For most people and companies, past is prologue. Predicting the future is easy based on what they have done in the past. Tesla is very hard to predict because they are so dynamic. Personally I think delaying the base version of the Model 3 a year will tarnish the biggest selling point of the whole project. Tesla may initially have to sell them at cost, but I think they will get some base models out there early on to show the $35K version actually exists.
Though I doubt there will be huge sales of the base version. Every car out there has a base version with a really low price to tease people in, but very few of those are sold in the real world, even to fleet buyers.
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People either like or hate bergomot (which is the ingredient that makes early grey different). I'm in the hate bergomot category myself.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Agreed... I received my Production S ~6 months after the VIN #1 shipped (or was picked up)... I don't see how the 3 would be worse.
strider
Active Member
I disagree. Tesla has been very UNdynamic when it comes to building cars. Every model has been massively late. The Model S and X will both ship the most expensive models first and then move down the ladder. Model 3 may be even worse with their batching due to the aforementioned battery cost issues.
But what did you configure? A base model 40 or 60 or a P85? My memory is a bit hazy but I recall it taking awhile from when they started shipping production cars down to the base models. IIRC they went P85's, 85's with air suspension, then I think 60's/40's with air suspension, then coil suspension... Maybe tomorrow I'll dig through the old delivery threads to find out when the first 40kWh w/ coil was delivered.
Anyway, I hope you're right. I want everyone to be able to enjoy a Tesla. I'm just trying to help people set expectations based on Tesla's perfect track record of things taking way longer than they say they will.
nwdiver
Well-Known Member
Ah... sorry... you said 'base' and I read 'production'... I ordered a P85. It was almost a year before the 60s started to ship. You can probably still dig up the threads... there was A LOT of bitterness over delivery order.
So if you're not willing to spend more than 35k but you're willing to put $$$ down in March '16 you 'might' get your M3 in mid-late 2018...
I would say that Tesla has been fairly dynamic. Dynamic means that you quickly adjust to market conditions, and that's something Tesla has done with regards to the Model X. When they saw that Model S demand was greater than production capacity for probably several years, they put the Model X on the backburner. Then they gradually adjusted Model X development so that the Model X would come to market at just the point where production capacity would exceed Model S demand.
Also, I don't think it will take years for Tesla to get most of the benefits of the Gigafactory. Even operating at one eight of the full production volume, it is a big factory, and with the new cell format and all the other improvements, the costs should be reduced substantially. If we assume a cost of 100 USD/kWh and a pack size of 60 kWh, that's 6,000 USD out of the total of 35,000 USD. I would say that it is equally important, if not more important, to focus on the 29,000 USD at Fremont.
Still, I doubt anyone will take delivery of a base Model 3 in the first 6 months of production.
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Also, I don't think it will take years for Tesla to get most of the benefits of the Gigafactory. Even operating at one eight of the full production volume, it is a big factory, and with the new cell format and all the other improvements, the costs should be reduced substantially. If we assume a cost of 100 USD/kWh and a pack size of 60 kWh, that's 6,000 USD out of the total of 35,000 USD. I would say that it is equally important, if not more important, to focus on the 29,000 USD at Fremont.
Still, I doubt anyone will take delivery of a base Model 3 in the first 6 months of production.
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Model S ramp-up was fairly slow, however. In all probability, Model 3 ramp-up will be faster. They'll probably make 50-100k Model 3 in the first year.
Not even close. The first Founders shipped in July, the first non-sigs in December and the first 60's in January. Non-air suspension and the cancelled 40's were April. The delay for lower configs is a lot longer for the Model X.
This coincides with what I recall. And I think that the 40 was delayed a few month before they decided to cancel that series, and would have been delivered in February or March if not. And that was after a very slow ramp-up of the sig deliveries. That - and what Yggdrasill say: "In all probability, Model 3 ramp-up will be faster. They'll probably make 50-100k Model 3 in the first year" - is why I say it will not take any longer then 6 month at the most. (... and 6 month to start deliveries to Europe ...
)
IIRC (and someone will correct me if I'm wrong), coil suspension wasn't even offered for a while. So coil suspension deliveries were delayed because it wasn't an option initially, not because they were prioritizing more expensive cars.
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