What Does the Sudden slow-down of the Supercharger Build Out Mean to the M3?

[Buddyroe]

If you follow supercharger buildouts at all you would know that 1st quarter is always slow.

Here we go again. Just say what you THINK is true. Tesla built 73 chargers in the first quarter of 2015. That's the 4th most built in any quarter (out of 15 quarters Tesla has been building out the supercharger network).

Please don't just post. Check the facts, and if they support what you are thinking, include them in your post. Otherwise, you are wasting your time to post, because I WILL check.

 

[Buddyroe]

In the US it was 11 for Q1 in 2016 vs 14 for Q1 in 2017.

And it was 42 for Q1 2015.

Nice job of cherry picking data. The 2 quarters you picked are the 2 lowest for both U.S. and the world since the build-out began. Last year I could understand. Tesla was getting the M3 ready for reveal and was also trying to save cash. But this year, Musk has said the network would be doubled.

There have been 2 slow-downs since the build-out began - Q1 2016 and year-to-date 2017. As has been posted in the past, the supercharger cost is minimal to Tesla in relation to the amount of money it spends. Why in the world would they slow the network build-out now?

PS. You originally said "what slowdown?". Then you said the build-out always slows down in the 1st quarter. Sounds a bit contradicting.

 

[stopcrazypp]

And it was 42 for Q1 2015.

Nice job of cherry picking data. The 2 quarters you picked are the 2 lowest for both U.S. and the world since the build-out began. Last year I could understand. Tesla was getting the M3 ready for reveal and was also trying to save cash. But this year, Musk has said the network would be doubled.

There have been 2 slow-downs since the build-out began - Q1 2016 and year-to-date 2017. As has been posted in the past, the supercharger cost is minimal to Tesla in relation to the amount of money it spends. Why in the world would they slow the network build-out now?

PS. You originally said "what slowdown?". Then you said the build-out always slows down in the 1st quarter. Sounds a bit contradicting.

If Q1 tends to be the slowest quarter in a given year, but it is not any slower this year than previous year, I don't see how that contradicts. There is no slowdown in this case and the differences between immediate subsequent quarters would be seasonal.

It seems like you both have the data for every single quarter, so why not post a spreadsheet of some sort with this information and we can judge for ourselves.

 

[RayW]

Yes, the "little to no wait" part. It's bad enough that a charge takes more planning and way more time than a gas fill-up, but having to wait 20-40 minutes just to get into a stall on a road trip is not good. And with a lot more Teslas hitting the streets, even less good.

Over the course of a year, waiting one-hour to charge during a few road trips and zero minutes during the work weeks is better than 5-minutes once or more per week in a ICE vehicle.

 

[DrivingRockies]

This reminds me of seasonal factors. It usually does not make sense to look at quarters subsequently but rather separated by 1 year to control for seasonal factors. For example, Q1 2016 vs Q1 2017. Recently it had been raining a lot in California.

Similarly on the I-80 Wyoming build-out. I've been following it closely. They're waiting until the spring. I imagine the same can be said for much of the northern US. Rock Springs has an exact location picked out, the rest have city level at least.

 

[jelloslug]

Here we go again. Just say what you THINK is true. Tesla built 73 chargers in the first quarter of 2015. That's the 4th most built in any quarter (out of 15 quarters Tesla has been building out the supercharger network).

Please don't just post. Check the facts, and if they support what you are thinking, include them in your post. Otherwise, you are wasting your time to post, because I WILL check.

And every other quarter was less in 2015 than in 2016. You can check that also.

 

[Buddyroe]

Here are the supercharger openings by quarter since the first full quarter that Tesla started the Supercharger build out.

Now, keep in mind, while these numbers will prove that Q1 '17 is indeed very low, what is more important in the context of this is that Musk said there would be TWICE as many built from April 1st 2016 to Dec 31st 2017. So, that means the 7 quarters starting the day Musk made that statement (Q2 '16 through Q4 '17) would need to equal the number of superchargers built in the previous 10 quarters (Q4 '13 through Q1 16). So I'm not just comparing the numbers for each quarter as an apple to apple comparison, I am also figuring in the increase that we should be seeing in the openings in order to double the number of superchargers - which was the basis of this thread to begin with.

Anyway, let's take a look at the numbers:

Q4 2013 36
Q1 2014 30
Q2 2014 28
Q3 2014 76
Q4 2014 126
Q1 2015 72
Q2 2015 43
Q3 2015 69
Q4 2015 72
Q1 2016 28
Q2 2016 48
Q3 2016 57
Q4 2016 85
Q1 2017 40

Let's analyze those numbers.

Q4 '16 was the 2nd highest number of openings ever - second only to Q4 '16 - a clear indication of the ramp up in openings that Musk talked about.

In the 3 quarters since Musk made that statement, the openings were 48, 57, and 85 (increasing 20% and 30% respectively). In Q1 '17, the openings dropped to 40 - less than half the previous quarter.

The average number of openings per quarter before Q1 2017 was 59. In a time where the superchargers were suppose to be increasing rapidly, Tesla opened 19 less than it's average.

The average number of openings in the 10 quarters prior to Musk's statement was 58. The average in the 3 months after Musk's statement was 63 (and increasing). Q1 '17 openings were 23 less than the average since Musk made his statement that the number of supercharger locations would double.

40 openings is the second lowest number of openings in any quarter since Q2 '14.

To reach 1200 openings by Dec 31st of this year, Tesla will have to open 121 supercharger stations each of the last 3 quarters. That is certainly possible since they opened 126 in Q4 2014. But, with only 11 known to be in construction, and 11 in the permit stage, building anything close to 121 this quarter will be almost impossible. I will fully admit that getting to, or close to the 1200 is still VERY possible, but it will take a ramp up of significant proportion over the next 8 months. If however, this continued rate of 40 to 85 per quarter continues, then it is obvious, as I stated in my OP, Tesla/Musk changed their strategy in regards to doubling the number of superchargers by EOY 2017 - which is a clear indication to why the sudden slow down of openings AFTER the 85 that opened in Q4 '16.

 

[techmaven]

During periods of very high capex for other projects, Supercharger build out slows down. In Q4 and Q1, Tesla was investing in other areas. Note that there is a delay in the visible portions of Supercharger build outs... it takes a lot of time, work, and money before the subcontractor actually starts the physical construction.

Also, at some point this year, I think Tesla will start to build out the next generation of Superchargers. It probably makes sense to push back deployments for the next version depending on the location.

 

[jelloslug]

Here are the supercharger openings by quarter since the first full quarter that Tesla started the Supercharger build out.

Now, keep in mind, while these numbers will prove that Q1 '17 is indeed very low, what is more important in the context of this is that Musk said there would be TWICE as many built from April 1st 2016 to Dec 31st 2017. So, that means the 7 quarters starting the day Musk made that statement (Q2 '16 through Q4 '17) would need to equal the number of superchargers built in the previous 10 quarters (Q4 '13 through Q1 16). So I'm not just comparing the numbers for each quarter as an apple to apple comparison, I am also figuring in the increase that we should be seeing in the openings in order to double the number of superchargers - which was the basis of this thread to begin with.

Anyway, let's take a look at the numbers:

Q4 2013 36
Q1 2014 30
Q2 2014 28
Q3 2014 76
Q4 2014 126
Q1 2015 72
Q2 2015 43
Q3 2015 69
Q4 2015 72
Q1 2016 28
Q2 2016 48
Q3 2016 57
Q4 2016 85
Q1 2017 40

Let's analyze those numbers.

Q4 '16 was the 2nd highest number of openings ever - second only to Q4 '16 - a clear indication of the ramp up in openings that Musk talked about.

In the 3 quarters since Musk made that statement, the openings were 48, 57, and 85 (increasing 20% and 30% respectively). In Q1 '17, the openings dropped to 40 - less than half the previous quarter.

The average number of openings per quarter before Q1 2017 was 59. In a time where the superchargers were suppose to be increasing rapidly, Tesla opened 19 less than it's average.

The average number of openings in the 10 quarters prior to Musk's statement was 58. The average in the 3 months after Musk's statement was 63 (and increasing). Q1 '17 openings were 23 less than the average since Musk made his statement that the number of supercharger locations would double.

40 openings is the second lowest number of openings in any quarter since Q2 '14.

To reach 1200 openings by Dec 31st of this year, Tesla will have to open 121 supercharger stations each of the last 3 quarters. That is certainly possible since they opened 126 in Q4 2014. But, with only 11 known to be in construction, and 11 in the permit stage, building anything close to 121 this quarter will be almost impossible. I will fully admit that getting to, or close to the 1200 is still VERY possible, but it will take a ramp up of significant proportion over the next 8 months. If however, this continued rate of 40 to 85 per quarter continues, then it is obvious, as I stated in my OP, Tesla/Musk changed their strategy in regards to doubling the number of superchargers by EOY 2017 - which is a clear indication to why the sudden slow down of openings AFTER the 85 that opened in Q4 '16.

There are 19 under construction and 21 under permit right now world wide (that are known). The 11 and 11 figure is for the US only.

 

[Buddyroe]

There are 19 under construction and 21 under permit right now world wide (that are known). The 11 and 11 figure is for the US only.

You are right. My mistake there.

 

[aronth5]

What has been surprising is the lack of any new California permits in almost a year.
Perhaps Tesla believes the expansion of existing supercharger locations in California combined with eliminating free super charging will address congestion but with the early Model 3 sales in California only a few months away this seems risky at best.

 

[neroden]

What has been surprising is the lack of any new California permits in almost a year.

You really don't need more locations in California in the near term. Montana could use a few Superchargers though; they're getting impatient.

I wouldn't be surprised if the pipeline slowed down because the next generation Supercharger is about to arrive. I wouldn't expect that to just be "faster"; that wouldn't change the pipeline much; but if they finally have the integrated batteries and solar panels...

 

[RDoc]

If VW really does start building the charging network they're supposed to, perhaps Tesla just needs a low cost CCS adapter to solve the Model 3 problem.

 

[Bet TSLA]

You know, this discussion has already been had back here (and here). Discussing what was said at the reveal seems pointless when there's a much more recent statement that is quite clear. To meet Elon's goal, they have to build at least 361 new locations in North America in 2017. That would mean open approximately one new location per day. They are so far off the pace it's absurd.

Of course it is possible that they roll out V3 superchargers, reveal a huge number of undetected permits, and start building like crazy. But they're running out of time for 2017.

 

[Buddyroe]

Just an update on this. As I'm sure everyone is aware, shortly after I made this post, Tesla made a blog entry stating that the Supercharger network would nearly double (from ~ 5387 stalls to 10k) worldwide by the end of 2017. So, I thought instead of starting a new thread, we could just track the progress in this one.

So far, since the blog entry was made, Tesla has added 267 new stalls - either to new or existing stations. That's an increase of almost 5% in 43 days. Another way to look at it would be that they added 6.2 stalls per day. With 206 days to go in 2017, Tesla still needs to add 4346 stalls - or 21 stalls per day, more than triple the rate over the last 1.5 months since the blog entry was made.