What does Toyota see in "Fool" Cells?

[ggies07]

I find all this ironic for Toyota in that they were the ones during the early years of G.W. Bush to bring hybrids over here because they wanted to beat the US automaker competition and here we are today, Tesla, a US competitor slaughtering them because they won't shift to EVs.....

 

[Hengist]

The real point of fool cell cars it to keep a business model where the driver has to stop often and pay a fool company for fool. Your friendly oil company wants to survive. Fool cells stand a chance at letting them do so. Being independent of refooling is their death sentence.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

There's a lot of misconceptions that FCVs operate like serial hybrids (large battery pack required). But they operate a lot more like series-parallel hybrids like the Prius. It only needs a small battery to provide instantaneous power and regen, while a bulk of the continuous power is supplied by the fuel cell (like the ICE does in a typical hybrid). In fact, a lot of the FCVs use the exact same battery pack as their gasoline hybrid versions (the Hyundai Tuscon for example uses the exact same pack as other Hyundai hybrids)!

No, serial hybrid is a much better description because the fuel cell outputs electricity and the car has a battery to act as a buffer for efficiency. Rather than EREV serial it's more train serial. But the key thing to remember is that it's like a BEV or EREV because it has a full-power motor and inverter. That's one of the competitive issues:
fuel cell +small battery
v large battery
v 16kWh-20kWh battery + engine + power split transmission
v 4-8kWh battery + engine + poer split transmission
v small battery + engine + power split transmission
also v 20+ kWh battery

FCVs only have 1 cost differentiator compared to BEVs, and there's a whole sliding scale of competitive possibilities from ICEV to BEVs.

 

[stopcrazypp]

OK, I got that. Isn't the propulsion more like a BEV with an electric motor, single speed gearbox and none of the planetary gears that connected to the ICE?

The electric motor provides all the propulsion so it is probably bigger than a parallel hybrid and the continuous power that is being supplied by the fuel cell is electricity, correct?

Series hybrid does not mean large battery pack. Series hybrid has enough of a buffer to provide for peak power demands and a smaller power source (ICE, FC, whatever) providing for average load. EREV has a large battery pack.

No, serial hybrid is a much better description because the fuel cell outputs electricity and the car has a battery to act as a buffer for efficiency.

Sorry, I was loose with the terminology and thinking more electrically, than mechanically. Yes it would have a bigger (single) motor, although if they use dual motors (like a lot of full hybrids) that's not necessarily the case. What I'm referring more to is the thought that they just take a BEV and convert it to FCV (as that's how most people view them and why a lot of people think they have big batteries like BEVs), when typically they share a lot more with a hybrid than with a BEV.

The smaller battery is the big example. Other examples are that FCs have similar cooling requirements to ICE (and much farther than BEVs) and similarly generate enough waste heat to use for heating the cabin. Space/layout requirement is also similar (FC is like an engine, the tank is separate like a gasoline tank). It also needs an air intake and exhaust, like an ICE.

 

[brianman]

I think it was more to do with liabilities, the site had several pollution issues, and part of the deal is on a certain date, Tesla "owns" all of the remaining clean up for the site.

You've piqued my interest. Do you have a link? Thanks.

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I find all this ironic for Toyota in that they were the ones during the early years of G.W. Bush to bring hybrids over here because they wanted to beat the US automaker competition and here we are today, Tesla, a US competitor slaughtering them because they won't shift to EVs.....

Can you elaborate? I don't think we have data to show that Tesla is doing that well (yet). With Gen 3, I expect that to change.

 

[mitch672]

Brianman, I read about it during the P&S discussion/contract between Toyota and Tesla, I'm looking for links but it's buried somewhere
In the meantime , check out this PDF proposal from Fremont to Toyota, trying to keep auto manufacturing in CA. I don't doubt that Tesla is getting some of these perks now...

http://www.fremont.gov/DocumentCenter/Home/View/2277

Announcement of the sale:
Tesla to buy NUMMI plant, build cars with Toyota - San Francisco Business Times

Found it, "NUMMI agrees to pay up to $15 million for known environment cleanup issues on the site", it's in the article....
Tesla Motors reveals some thoughts on using the NUMMI plant site - National Green Transportation | Examiner.com

 

[brianman]

Thanks for the link!

I think it was more to do with liabilities, the site had several pollution issues, and part of the deal is on a certain date, Tesla "owns" all of the remaining clean up for the site.

NUMMI agrees to pay up to $15 million for known environment cleanup issues on the site

The underlined portions seem to be saying different things.

Is "NUMMI" here a shorthand for "current owner of the NUMMI facility"? I guess so...

New United Motor Manufacturing, Inc. (NUMMI) was an automobile manufacturing plant in Fremont, California, jointly owned by General Motors and Toyota that opened in 1984 and closed in 2010. On October 27, 2010, it reopened as a 100% Tesla Motors-owned production facility, known as the Tesla Factory.

... unless it means "an entity that no longer exists because the current facility has a new name".

 

[T B]

Toyota needs fuel cells because they realize they simply cannot get enough batteries for all their future vehicles.

Tesla Motors will need to build the largest battery factory in the world just to supply batteries for their expected volume of 500 000 cars a year in the future.

Toyota makes 10 000 000 cars a year, 20 times as much. It is easier to put fuel cells and empty hydrogen tanks in them, than trying to produce the staggering amount of batteries they would need.

 

[Johan]

Toyota needs fuel cells because they realize they simply cannot get enough batteries for all their future vehicles.

Tesla Motors will need to build the largest battery factory in the world just to supply batteries for their expected volume of 500 000 cars a year in the future.

Toyota makes 10 000 000 cars a year, 20 times as much. It is easier to put fuel cells and empty hydrogen tanks in them, than trying to produce the staggering amount of batteries they would need.

This is actually an excellent point that I have not yet thought through enough!

 

[ggies07]

Can you elaborate? I don't think we have data to show that Tesla is doing that well (yet). With Gen 3, I expect that to change.

I mean not technically right? But in the whole EV shifting game, Tesla is ahead of everyone else. You would think for a company (Toyota) that started the transition from ICE to hybrid, that the next step would be pure EV, but I guess not.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Toyota needs fuel cells because they realize they simply cannot get enough batteries for all their future vehicles.

I don't think that premise is necessarily a good one. It's not guaranteed that there's enough resources in the world to replace every car with fuel cells either and the amount of fuel cells being made today is barely enough for the current limited fleets (meaning they will have to build new factories anyways).

My theory is that their battery supply is primarily hybrid based, which means they get horrible $/kWh prices (although decent $/kW prices). That's going to make BEVs seem nonviable. I remember they were still paying $1000+/kWh for the PiP's batteries when even GM was paying $500/kWh.

 

[callmesam]

Favorite quote from 2010 Examiner article:

Tesla is beginning to line up the assets required to begin production of the Model S, which they expect to begin in 2012. They have an experienced VP of manufacturing, they have agreements with both Toyota and Daimler giving them access to parts catalogs, they appear to be on track to purchase a large factory site, and have a lot of money lined up to help pay for building the factory. What's still not clear is the purpose for purchasing such a large factory site. (emphasis added)

How about making hundreds of thousands of cars?

 

[Zextraterrestrial]

^^ that is funny

glad I already had my $5k in :smile:


On the FC topic, how are these in extreme cold climates? the membranes need to stay moist and not dry out + the H20 needs to be wet and not frozen. I would think a cold soaked FCV would be a nightmare compared to a coldsoaked BEV. Would they have plug-in block heaters or something? Maybe use the battery power to preheat/keep warm the FC? Seems very inefficient overall

 

[jerry33]

Toyota needs fuel cells because they realize they simply cannot get enough batteries for all their future vehicles.

This is hard for me to believe because Toyota and Panasonic formed a joint company to create batteries for Toyota.

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On the FC topic, how are these in extreme cold climates? the membranes need to stay moist and not dry out + the H20 needs to be wet and not frozen. I would think a cold soaked FCV would be a nightmare compared to a coldsoaked BEV. Would they have plug-in block heaters or something? Maybe use the battery power to preheat/keep warm the FC? Seems very inefficient overall

Well, fool cells are about as inefficient a storage mechanism as you can get (unless you compare them to compressed air). At CES there is a hydrogen reactor (fool cell with funny name). It costs $170 and will charge an iPhone six times before you need to purchase another two cores at $20 each. Now I haven't measured how much electricity costs to charge my iPhone but I doubt it will cost $60 every six days.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Toyota needs fuel cells because they realize they simply cannot get enough batteries for all their future vehicles.

Tesla Motors will need to build the largest battery factory in the world just to supply batteries for their expected volume of 500 000 cars a year in the future.

Toyota makes 10 000 000 cars a year, 20 times as much. It is easier to put fuel cells and empty hydrogen tanks in them, than trying to produce the staggering amount of batteries they would need.

It's not that bad. The batteries can be recycled, so despite the large annual multiplier, the total years of supply required wouldn't be that great. The bigger issue is market size and sunk investment.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Toyota could of course introduce BEVs in parallell with it's other cars. If they decided to go the BEV-route, they would simply have to build their own largest battery factory in the world. Or ten of them. By adjusting the pricing on the BEVs Toyota could control demand according to supply.

This has more to do with Toyota being afraid of change. They don't believe consumers will be able to adjust to plugging in at home, and using superchargers (or similar chargers) on long trips, instead of getting all their fuel at special stations. It suffices to say Toyota is wrong.

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Well, fool cells are about as inefficient a storage mechanism as you can get (unless you compare them to compressed air). At CES there is a hydrogen reactor (fool cell with funny name). It costs $170 and will charge an iPhone six times before you need to purchase another two cores at $20 each. Now I haven't measured how much electricity costs to charge my iPhone but I doubt it will cost $60 every six days.

If you assume you start with natural gas, hydrogen cars can be more efficient than BEVs. A natural gas power plant is at best around 55% efficient, whereas steam reformation of natural gas into hydrogen is around 80% efficient. With a 90% efficient drivetrain in a BEV and 85% efficient charging compared to a 65% efficient drivetrain in a hydrogen car, you can arrive at an efficiency of around 44% for a BEV and an efficiency of around 52% for a hydrogen car.

The above way is really the most favourable way to view hydrogen cars, but of course, if you assume you start with natural gas, "zero emissions" is out the window. BEVs can run on any source of electricity more efficiently than a hydrogen car.

 

[Reykjavik]

It would make sense to do a plug in hybrid electric/fuel cell vehicle, in that case freezing over night would't be a problem. But I suspect that it will ultimately fall into the same issue as ICE cars, where the more electric it is the better. I'd rather have a hybrid than a pure ICE, I'd rather plug it in than not be able to, and the bigger the battery the better, up to the point that the ICE (or FC) is superfluous.

 

[jerry33]

If you assume you start with natural gas, hydrogen cars can be more efficient than BEVs. A natural gas power plant is at best around 55% efficient, whereas steam reformation of natural gas into hydrogen is around 80% efficient. With a 90% efficient drivetrain in a BEV and 85% efficient charging compared to a 65% efficient drivetrain in a hydrogen car, you can arrive at an efficiency of around 44% for a BEV and an efficiency of around 52% for a hydrogen car.

The above way is really the most favourable way to view hydrogen cars, but of course, if you assume you start with natural gas, "zero emissions" is out the window. BEVs can run on any source of electricity more efficiently than a hydrogen car.

Of course, with natural gas you also have to take in to account the water pollution and earthquakes from fracking. When you do that, even an ICE car looks good.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Of course, with natural gas you also have to take in to account the water pollution and earthquakes from fracking. When you do that, even an ICE car looks good.

Fracking produces what, 10% (?) of global natural gas output. You can't assume all natural gas comes from fracking.

 

[evme]

If you assume you start with natural gas, hydrogen cars can be more efficient than BEVs. A natural gas power plant is at best around 55% efficient, whereas steam reformation of natural gas into hydrogen is around 80% efficient. With a 90% efficient drivetrain in a BEV and 85% efficient charging compared to a 65% efficient drivetrain in a hydrogen car, you can arrive at an efficiency of around 44% for a BEV and an efficiency of around 52% for a hydrogen car.

The above way is really the most favourable way to view hydrogen cars, but of course, if you assume you start with natural gas, "zero emissions" is out the window. BEVs can run on any source of electricity more efficiently than a hydrogen car.

i thought efficiency of a fuel cell is 50%, not 65%. Either way, have you factored in the efficiency running the compressor to compress to 10,000psi? Not to mention the efficiency of refueling.