What does your timeline look like for driverless vehicles?

[DanCar]

2021 - Waymo commences driverless rides in SF without safety drivers. Another couple of driverless cars added to the two in Chandler.

2022 - Tesla Level 2 city driving assist deployed and lots of happy customers. Freeway NoA works better.

2023 - Elon announces level 3 coming. Pot hole detection kind of works.

2024 - Waymo deployes another couple of fully driverless vans to another metro area. Level 3 arrives for Tesla in stop and go traffic on freeway.

2025 - Waymo covers 3/4ths of Phoenix. Tesla increases max speed of level 3 to 30 mph on limited access freeways.

2026 - Waymo sells out to VC firm. Company tired of pouring billions into money losing venture.

2027-2030 - Tesla, VC firm, Mobileye and others duking it out for world domination with level 4 driverless.

Beyond 2030 - Self driving cars still have accidents and people know to be leery.

 

[TresLA]

I’d generally believe/agree with the sequence, just maybe not the timing.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

Waymo/Cruze/other fleet vehicles
2021 - Continued roll out of small pilot programs. I might experience my first self-driving vehicle experience in one in SF if this happens, and I make trip down there to do it among other cool things in SF.
2022/2023 - The post covid spike in demand for Uber along with the lack of human drivers creates markets for geofenced Waymo/Cruze/other fleet vehicles, and they start to serve some popular metro areas a lot more quickly than anticipated.
2024 - The competition for technology leadership in autonomous vehicles gets red hot because the US rollout of autonomous vehicles will trail that of China, and they'll be a huge push at the federal level to try to overtake them.
2025 - Will be pretty common to ride in autonomous fleet vehicles in highly populated areas of major metro areas.
2026 - People on TMC will continue to debate about whether the fleet vehicles are truly autonomous due to the use of humans overseers in command centers.

Tesla
2021 - FSD beta V9 will finally get a limited general release, but it will still make stupid mistakes
2022 - Tesla will claim L4 capability, but it will be limited to 1.5 miles of a particular spot in Las Vegas.
2022 - Tesla will finally release FSD Beta to the general public, but it will be far more limited than hoped for
2023 - Tesla will introduce a new sensor setup that will surprise a lot of people
2023 - Tesla will start offering X months free subscription on a trade in of an older Tesla vehicle
2025 - After many delays Tesla will finally have L4 vehicles in a general release, but it won't include HW3 vehicles.

Other private owned vehicles
2021 - The industry will continue to the push towards hands free L2 systems with driver monitoring
2022 - Continued pilots of traffic speed L3, but no one will officially offer an L3 system to the US public due to fear of lawsuits
2023 - a Chinese automotive company will release an L4 vehicle in China
2024 - The domestic, and German automakers will be rocked when a Chinese company releases an L4 vehicle in the US. Lots of people on TMC will play it down due to it being very geofenced to some popular routes, but lots of people will buy it.

 

[emmz0r]

2025: Tesla still struggling with L4. Meanwhile the tech behind the tic Tac UFOs have been reverse engineered, and made car transportation obsolete, SpaceX, and thus self driving obsolete.

 

[Tez~La]

Robo Taxi by end of the year according to E. If not by next year for sure.

 

[kaffine]

2021 - Waymo commences driverless rides in SF without safety drivers. Another couple of driverless cars added to the two in Chandler.

2022 - Tesla Level 2 city driving assist deployed and lots of happy customers. Freeway NoA works better.

2023 - Elon announces level 3 coming. Pot hole detection kind of works.

2024 - Waymo deployes another couple of fully driverless vans to another metro area. Level 3 arrives for Tesla in stop and go traffic on freeway.

2025 - Waymo covers 3/4ths of Phoenix. Tesla increases max speed of level 3 to 30 mph on limited access freeways.

2026 - Waymo sells out to VC firm. Company tired of pouring billions into money losing venture.

2027-2030 - Tesla, VC firm, Mobileye and others duking it out for world domination with level 4 driverless.

Beyond 2030 - Self driving cars still have accidents and people know to be leery.

2035 due to wide adoption of self driving car and reduced accident rates emergency response and ER budgets get cut.
2040 Due to reduced emergency response services and fewer ER facilities, deaths due to other medical issues increase due to delayed response times.

 

[gearchruncher]

Due to reduced emergency response services and fewer ER facilities, deaths due to other medical issues increase due to delayed response times.

There's an interesting theory out there that cars have not increased in safety as much as the data says. The theory is that we've gotten better at on-site stabilization and then ER care, so less people die even with the same injuries, but this just gets attributed to a lower fatality rate and "safer" cars.

 

[DanCar]

2032 - Fatalities continue to go down. Attributed to driverless vehicles, but in reality it is because emergency crews are now air dropped on to the scene via autonomous flying drones, saving precious minutes.

 

[gearchruncher]

2040: Autonomous cars collide with each other or things more often than humans do, but with less severity. Fatalities drop and humans driving are outlawed. Costs to own/operate a vehicle skyrocket as repairs from less severe incidents dominate. Fewer people can afford to utilize vehicles, so total utilization decreases, further reducing overall fatality rate.

 

[diplomat33]

2021 - Waymo commences driverless rides in SF without safety drivers. Another couple of driverless cars added to the two in Chandler.

2024 - Waymo deployes another couple of fully driverless vans to another metro area.

Maybe you are being facetious and that is your way of saying that Waymo won't deploy a large fleet of robotaxis but Waymo has more than 2 cars operating in Chandler now. I see more than 2 cars in this picture:

And, according to the CA DMV Report, Waymo has registered 16 autonomous vehicles in CA, mostly in SF. That's more than a couple cars in SF. I am sure when Waymo launches their commercial ride hailing in SF, it will likely be several hundred cars at least.

 

[DanCar]

If you have evidence that more than one driverless minivan is in operation at any one time, I'd be interested. Yes there are many with a safety driver.

 

[diplomat33]

If you have evidence that more than one driverless minivan is in operation at any one time, I'd be interested. Yes there are many with a safety driver.

The fact that anybody can call a ride on the app and it will say that the car is driverless. That can only happen if there is more than 1 driverless car at the same time. And Waymo has said that all the cars in the 50 sq mi driverless area, are driverless. And we have multiple videos of driverless rides and the cars have different license plates. JJ Ricks does a lot videos in driverless rides and he's gotten different cars. To suggest that Waymo only allows one driverless car at the same time, is silly.

 

[DanCar]

The fact that anybody can call a ride on the app and it will say that the car is driverless. That can only happen if there is more than 1 driverless car at the same time.

I'm not following. What I've heard is that it is difficult to get a vehicle without a safety driver. Perhaps that information is stale. It is easy to get one with a safety driver. In your sentence, does driverless mean with a safety driver?

And Waymo has said that all the cars in the 50 sq mi driverless area, are driverless.

Well I know that is not true. Where did Waymo say this? @JJRicks , what do you think?

And we have multiple videos of driverless rides and the cars have different license plates. JJ Ricks does a lot videos in driverless rides and he's gotten different cars. To suggest that Waymo only allows one driverless car at the same time, is silly.

I'm waiting for proof. This is about what is in operation at one time. Any safety driven vehicle can be without a safety driver. Doesn't mean there are many driven at one time without a safety driver.

 

[Bladerskb]

I'm waiting for proof. This is about what is in operation at one time. Any safety driven vehicle can be without a safety driver. Doesn't mean there are many driven at one time without a safety driver.

Why not watch JJ's videos? Isn't it the point that we finally have proof in the form of videos? Yet no one watches it...
In his videos he has seen other cars with no drivers (if i'm remembering correctly).

2021 - Waymo commences driverless rides in SF without safety drivers.

This won't happen in 2021. 2022 yes but not 2021.

 

[diplomat33]

I'm not following. What I've heard is that it is difficult to get a vehicle without a safety driver. Perhaps that information is stale. It is easy to get one with a safety driver. In your sentence, does driverless mean with a safety driver?

Driverless means nobody in the driver seat.

Where did Waymo say this?

From the Waymo blog from 2020:

"Beginning today, October 8, we’re excited to open up our fully driverless offering to Waymo One riders. Members of the public service can now take friends and family along on their rides and share their experience with the world. We’ll start with those who are already a part of Waymo One and, over the next several weeks, welcome more people directly into the service through our app (available on Google Play and the App Store). In the near term, 100% of our rides will be fully driverless. We expect our new fully driverless service to be very popular, and we’re thankful to our riders for their patience as we ramp up availability to serve demand. Later this year, after we've finished adding in-vehicle barriers between the front row and the rear passenger cabin for in-vehicle hygiene and safety, we'll also be re-introducing rides with a trained vehicle operator, which will add capacity and allow us to serve a larger geographical area."

So Waymo said they opened a fully driverless service to the public where "100% of our rides will be fully driverless." I think that is pretty clear.

Waymo is opening its fully driverless service to the general public in Phoenix

Five years ago this month, Steve Mahan, the retired director of the Santa Clara Valley Blind Center, who lost his sight years before, took the world's first ride in a self-driving car on public roads. This little car, called Firefly, had a top speed of just 25 mph, and used a combination of...

blog.waymo.com

 

[ThomasD]

Time frame for robo taxis to take people anywhere they want to go? No limited areas. A car picks you up no matter where you are in 15 minutes or less and takes you takes you anywhere you want to go. Example Denver to Steamboat Springs CO. and back to Denver.

 

[diplomat33]

Time frame for robo taxis to take people anywhere they want to go? No limited areas. A car picks you up no matter where you are in 15 minutes or less and takes you takes you anywhere you want to go. Example Denver to Steamboat Springs CO. and back to Denver.

In the near term, all ride-hailing robotaxis will be limited to geofenced areas. What you are talking about is actual L5 robotaxis. IMO, we are probably 10-20 years away from that.

 

[ZoomsansVroom]

I think the first thing would probably be some type of dedicated "long haul" autonomous rig/switching set up where its either tied to rail transport, or uses the same legal means to condemn the land for an autonomous lane.

Frankly, I think that could be done now.

Similarly, I think building self-parking garages/lanes to self-parking garages would be a logical step, and something a wide array of car makers could easily add.

Autonomous driving through rush hour/heavily loaded trucks through mountains, etc, seem to be a long way off. (Unless there's dedicated autonomous lanes/drone delivery lanes added to highways.)

I do think restricting self-driving to only vision is a mistake - it seems odd to not take advantage of other means to see through fog, snow, etc.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

There's an interesting theory out there that cars have not increased in safety as much as the data says. The theory is that we've gotten better at on-site stabilization and then ER care, so less people die even with the same injuries, but this just gets attributed to a lower fatality rate and "safer" cars.

Has the data been corrected for speed?

During the lock down it was expected that road fatalities would go down, but they actually went up due to higher speed crashes as a result of less traffic.

For autonomous cars we also have to subtract out all the human caused collisions because humans didn't expect behavior like actually stopping at a stop sign.

 

[gearchruncher]

Has the data been corrected for speed?

During the lock down it was expected that road fatalities would go down, but they actually went up due to higher speed crashes as a result of less traffic.

I heard this theory on a podcast about 5 years ago. It is a long average of increasing safety in cars since the 1970's, not some sudden thing in the last 12 months. Speed limits in the USA have definitely gone up in the last 40 years.

It also is not saying cars have not gotten safer. Just that some of that statistical passenger car per mile increase is due to better medical care, not less severe injuries in all cases.