Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

What if FSD doesn't materialize?

gearchruncher

Active Member
Sep 20, 2016
2,613
3,418
Seattle, WA
Things the buyer is shown, or has to click through/on, to purchase FSD.
If you order one today, as part of the checkout process, this is what it says about FSD:

1624292930227.png


It specifically mentions "eventual full self driving via software updates." They are selling you the future here, and mentioning it directly, and clearly telling you that there is more to come.

Not convinced that the only thing you buy today with AP is the features that are there today (and the "coming soon" city streets autosteer). Tesla's checkout process leaves some ambiguity here, driven by the fact that they call the option you buy Full Self Driving Capability, and then the words above.

They could be a lot clearer if they really want to communicate to their customers that all you get is what is there today, and that "Full Self Driving" is only L2. Especially since if you look at what Tesla calls FSD on their autopilot page, they define it as this:

Full Self-Driving Capability​

All new Tesla cars have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat.

The future use of these features without supervision is dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving capabilities are introduced, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.
"Without supervision" sure sounds like L3+ to me...
 

Cyberax

Member
Supporting Member
Jul 28, 2015
454
367
Seattle, WA
By contract I'm including what you are promised during the purchase process- which explicitly tells you it's all L2.
You are not "promised" anything. The contract does not describe the "Full Self Driving" functionality, and that's ALL you are promised.

Moreover, the contract has the usual clause that whatever the seller told you prior to signing doesn't matter.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
14,082
24,635
NC
You are not "promised" anything.

Of course you are.

You are promised a specific list of features you are purchasing, plus one more (city streets) coming later.

See attached picture- I circled in red what you are promised with your purchase, and where have to actively click the ADD button to purchase it.

currentfsd.png
 

smogne41

Member
Jun 13, 2019
335
712
Pennsylvania
This is the second time Elon has gone all-in/'bet the company' on autonomy at Tesla. The first time was the Model 3 production and it was an abject failure that almost sank the company. FSD will probably be about a successful. Elon clearly prefers automation over human input, but his success rate for that position is frankly horrible. I don't think FSD failing will sink the company most likely, but that depends on if Tesla/Elon just continue to double down indefinitely or are willing to call it at some point. Given the egos involved, I don't know how likely the second option really is. I just wish they were not so willing to compromise the manual driving experience so much with the excuse of 'soon you will not even need to drive'. That philosophy might end up doing the most damage long term since it really does negatively impact the otherwise great products that they sell (the ones that actually exist).
 

hcdavis3

HCD3
Supporting Member
Mar 3, 2019
2,383
1,581
02571
This is the second time Elon has gone all-in/'bet the company' on autonomy at Tesla. The first time was the Model 3 production and it was an abject failure that almost sank the company. FSD will probably be about a successful. Elon clearly prefers automation over human input, but his success rate for that position is frankly horrible. I don't think FSD failing will sink the company most likely, but that depends on if Tesla/Elon just continue to double down indefinitely or are willing to call it at some point. Given the egos involved, I don't know how likely the second option really is. I just wish they were not so willing to compromise the manual driving experience so much with the excuse of 'soon you will not even need to drive'. That philosophy might end up doing the most damage long term since it really does negatively impact the otherwise great products that they sell (the ones that actually exist).
Totally agree!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Demonofelru

gearchruncher

Active Member
Sep 20, 2016
2,613
3,418
Seattle, WA
Moreover, the contract has the usual clause that whatever the seller told you prior to signing doesn't matter.
Please show me this contract, and show me what it DOES sell you then. Does it say you will get a car with tires, seats, etc? A specific range or acceleration? Any specific list of features? The config of the car does say "Full Self Driving Capability" - what data are you supposed to rely on in order to know what you get with this?

I picked the exact thing shown to you as you go through the checkout click stream, but before you "sign" a contract.

Also, contracts like this are not universally valid. You cannot advertise a while bunch of features, then hide a line in a contract that says "none of this matters" and have that be a universal get out of trouble free card.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ChicagoSox

gearchruncher

Active Member
Sep 20, 2016
2,613
3,418
Seattle, WA
I circled in red what you are promised with your purchase, and where have to actively click the ADD button to purchase it.
Click "feature details" on the exact page you showed as well. There's a bit more detail in there, indicating the "FSD computer" gets you future SW updates and capabilities.

Even your page says the car WILL receive future SW updates that enhance capabilities.
 
Last edited:

raptor5244

Active Member
May 10, 2019
1,442
1,096
Florida
I just wish they were not so willing to compromise the manual driving experience so much with the excuse of 'soon you will not even need to drive'. That philosophy might end up doing the most damage long term since it really does negatively impact the otherwise great products that they sell (the ones that actually exist).
Same here. Tesla vehicles offer a fantastic driving experience. I think they pushed too hard on the whole FSD thing, which is really just false advertising IMO.
 

linux-works

Active Member
Dec 23, 2019
2,299
4,379
mtn view, ca
Not so fast. I checked the recent-ish purchase contract (post 2019) and it does NOT define exactly what "Full Self-Driving" is. While the website uses weasel-words dodges, the contract has nothing.

In such cases courts are just as likely to interpret "full self-driving" as "full self-driving".
or perhaps "fool, self-driving"
 
  • Funny
Reactions: raptor5244

linux-works

Active Member
Dec 23, 2019
2,299
4,379
mtn view, ca
Same here. Tesla vehicles offer a fantastic driving experience. I think they pushed too hard on the whole FSD thing, which is really just false advertising IMO.
tesla could sell every car even if it JUST stopped development, fixed the bugs it has now and improved body, paint quality and customer support.

its a FAST car and it handles well. if it never goes above the level2 we have now, I would not cry a tear and neither would most of you.

the assist is useful and valuable. the fact that I can drive tailgate-free in auto mode is a life-saver, alone.

lesson to learn: accept what you can do, do it WELL and be happy with that. tesla really would do well to learn this life lesson.
 

stopcrazypp

Well-Known Member
Dec 8, 2007
11,352
6,501
Click "feature details" on the exact page you showed as well. There's a bit more detail in there, indicating the "FSD computer" gets you future SW updates and capabilities.

Even your page says the car WILL receive future SW updates that enhance capabilities.
Well future updates doesn't say it has to be L4 or L5. AP has continued to get SW updates that improve its capabilities, but that doesn't mean it'll ever go beyond L3.

On the other hand, the previous order page had it right on the option description capabilities that suggests L4:
Tesla-full-self-driving-capability-upgrade.jpg
 

run-the-joules

Turgid Member
Aug 13, 2017
3,785
7,360
SF Bay
tesla could sell every car even if it JUST stopped development, fixed the bugs it has now and improved body, paint quality and customer support.

its a FAST car and it handles well. if it never goes above the level2 we have now, I would not cry a tear and neither would most of you.

the assist is useful and valuable. the fact that I can drive tailgate-free in auto mode is a life-saver, alone.

lesson to learn: accept what you can do, do it WELL and be happy with that. tesla really would do well to learn this life lesson.
I can't speak for others but I bought the car for the claimed autonomy. I would be thrilled to never drive ever again if I can avoid it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BrerBear

linux-works

Active Member
Dec 23, 2019
2,299
4,379
mtn view, ca
I can't speak for others but I bought the car for the claimed autonomy. I would be thrilled to never drive ever again if I can avoid it.
I knew it would have fun and useful assist features, but I didnt ever think it would get to level5 with its current sensors.

never bothered me. like I said, its a very fast car, it handles well, its style is acceptable (wish it was more plush but its ok enough) and of course the supercharger network is a 'killer app' for any tesla car.

autonomy might have been dangled in front of peoples' eyes, but anyone with any experience in software would have guessed that what elon keeps saying is just not in line with current reality. this car will NEVER drive itself across country. that's just a flat out lie and he should be taken to task for even suggesting such a thing. that's the crap I dont like about the company and elon. but the car is good for what it is (ignoring the direction the UI is going on, for the moment) and if it never gets above level 2, its still a great car.

set your expectations properly. not what some salesman says. and yes, elon is a salesman, first and foremost.
 
  • Like
Reactions: KJD and Tesomega

wdolson

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jul 24, 2015
7,996
11,374
Clark Co, WA
I knew it would have fun and useful assist features, but I didnt ever think it would get to level5 with its current sensors.

never bothered me. like I said, its a very fast car, it handles well, its style is acceptable (wish it was more plush but its ok enough) and of course the supercharger network is a 'killer app' for any tesla car.

autonomy might have been dangled in front of peoples' eyes, but anyone with any experience in software would have guessed that what elon keeps saying is just not in line with current reality. this car will NEVER drive itself across country. that's just a flat out lie and he should be taken to task for even suggesting such a thing. that's the crap I dont like about the company and elon. but the car is good for what it is (ignoring the direction the UI is going on, for the moment) and if it never gets above level 2, its still a great car.

set your expectations properly. not what some salesman says. and yes, elon is a salesman, first and foremost.

Actually I don't think Elon is a salesman at heart nor a very good salesman, but he's been convinced by others he has to be. His degree is in Physics, but at heart he's more of an engineer. He is aware that the media has a fascination with him and that is an excellent vector for selling Tesla to the world for free. He recently said he had Asperger's (a mild form of autism) and most people with it struggle with social situations and they frequently tell the wrong thing at the wrong time.

I think Elon is convinced that L5 FSD is possible. He's a brilliant designer and has some real skill as an engineer, but the self driving system is probably the most complex system he has ever attempted. He has written software, but it was for large systems that would be accessed with browsers. Embedded software is a different problem with different considerations. He underestimated what it was going to take.

Full self driving is a very difficult problem to crack. The problem of controlling a car on a limited access road like a highway in good weather is not that tough. AP1 is pretty good at that and it's vastly less sophisticated than the current FSD computer. But get onto surface streets with pedestrians, cars coming and going from driveways, bicycles, things coming into the street unexpectedly like a ball or someone playing with an RC car, it gets difficult. Add in weather problems and the problems get even worse.

To get to L4, the system can handle almost every case but there is still a human fallback for those cases the car can't figure out what to do. With my AP1 system there have been several times when AP was unavailable because the camera was blinded by the sun. They may have dealt with that with the newer system, I don't know, but there will be times the sensors can't get enough information to continue safely. Especially on a city street. There will be other edge cases where the car is confused and a human needs to take over. It may only happen a few times per hundred thousand miles, but with a fleet of millions of cars it's going to happen multiple times a day all over the world.

L5 has to make the leap from getting confused and having to have a human take over once in a while to never getting confused under any situation. From an engineering perspective, that's a very tough hurdle to overcome. For most engineering designs, getting to 90% is pretty easy, that last 10% can bankrupt you.

That's why the super high end gear for many things costs and arm and a leg. Back in the day when people had home stereo systems with separate components. There were lots of cheap systems for $100-$200, and a high quality system might run you $1000-$1500, but if you wanted the best audio reproduction possible, the amplifier alone cost $25,000. And this was back in the 80s. The $25,000 system was maybe 5-10% better than the $1500 system, but it cost more than 10 times more because it takes a lot of special engineering and construction to get that last 10%.

L5 has to be perfect 100% of the time. Tesla and other automakers might be able to achieve some kind of L4 system and maybe L5 on limited access roads in good weather, but the promises of all the radical changes to the world won't happen unless they achieve L5 and I think that's a bridge too far.

There are many business interests who are pushing hard for L5. It would eliminate truck drivers, Uber drivers, taxi drivers, and many other types of drivers. The economic benefits for businesses is huge, though the economic downside for people who drive for a living are also huge.

I could be wrong. But I think high reliability L4 is the best the auto industry is going to achieve. Some may try to sell their system as L5, but real world testing will show it can't handle every situation thrown at it. Maybe 99%, maybe even 99.9%, but not 100%.
 
To get to L4, the system can handle almost every case but there is still a human fallback for those cases the car can't figure out what to do. With my AP1 system there have been several times when AP was unavailable because the camera was blinded by the sun. They may have dealt with that with the newer system, I don't know, but there will be times the sensors can't get enough information to continue safely. Especially on a city street. There will be other edge cases where the car is confused and a human needs to take over. It may only happen a few times per hundred thousand miles, but with a fleet of millions of cars it's going to happen multiple times a day all over the world.
You are actually describing an L3 system. L3 systems required a human to available to take over if the car can't solve a problem on it's own.

L4 and L5 are operationally identical. No human required to bring the car to a safe state. The only difference between L4 and L5 is that L4 has limitations of some sort (geography, weather, etc.) where L5 does not.
 

wdolson

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jul 24, 2015
7,996
11,374
Clark Co, WA
You are actually describing an L3 system. L3 systems required a human to available to take over if the car can't solve a problem on it's own.

L4 and L5 are operationally identical. No human required to bring the car to a safe state. The only difference between L4 and L5 is that L4 has limitations of some sort (geography, weather, etc.) where L5 does not.

Yup, you're right. I had to refresh my memory. According to this
The 6 Levels of Vehicle Autonomy Explained | Synopsys Automotive

With L4 full autonomy can only happen in designated, geofenced areas (like highways). I believe the software will reach a high L3 possibly a not always fully reliable L4, but regulators in many countries are going to be slow to allow it too. One of the few strong unions left in the US are the teamsters (truck drivers). Their lobbyists in the US will be telling legislatures how bad unemployment will be if full self driving becomes a reality. Plus the more timid members of the public will be freaking out about driverless vehicles and nobody wants the blame when the first driverless vehicles do something horrific. Which is inevitable.
 

gearchruncher

Active Member
Sep 20, 2016
2,613
3,418
Seattle, WA
With L4 full autonomy can only happen in designated, geofenced areas (like highways). I believe the software will reach a high L3 possibly a not always fully reliable L4, but regulators in many countries are going to be slow to allow it too.
To get to L4, the system can handle almost every case but there is still a human fallback for those cases the car can't figure out what to do.
L4 means the vehicle knows before if it can complete the trip with no attention. For instance, it can only do paved roads. So as long as the route is paved, you can get in the back and sleep. The vehicle analyzes this for you, and tells you it doesn't need you, and guarantees it. Yes, this could be a 400 mile section of highway where you have to drive onto the highway and then off. But it can be more complex than that too, like it couldn't drive in downtown SFO with hills and limited visibility, but it could in downtown Fargo.

L3 means the vehicle can request you to take over at any moment during the trip, and you have around 10 seconds to take over. The vehicle did not know this was going to be needed before it started driving. A human must be present because this could happen at any moment.

Regulators ALREADY allow L4 in the USA. Some states have laws specifically allowing it. There is no federal regulation against it. NHTSA has already said they don't have the authority to regulate it. Regulation is a made up boogeyman. The real blocker is liability- the owner of the vehicle is liable for any issues. Would you own/operate an L4 car if you were personally responsible when it hurt someone?

L5 has to be perfect 100% of the time. Tesla and other automakers might be able to achieve some kind of L4 system and maybe L5 on limited access roads in good weather, but the promises of all the radical changes to the world won't happen unless they achieve L5 and I think that's a bridge too far.

No system will EVER be 100%. 1:100M miles fatality is the baseline, because that's what humans do. Elon likes to tweet about the "march of nines" in reliability, but even he doesn't say it needs to be perfect. It will be up to the developing companies to decide when it is reliable enough to release it.


He recently said he had Asperger's (a mild form of autism) and most people with it struggle with social situations and they frequently tell the wrong thing at the wrong time.
Elon has told the world a lot of things that were poorly sourced and not true, yet served him really well in the moment. I believe him about having Aspergers about as much as I believe any date he gives on FSD being released in the next two time periods.

Actually I don't think Elon is a salesman at heart nor a very good salesman, but he's been convinced by others he has to be.
So it was not Elon that fired all his PR people and decided that Tesla would supposedly never advertise and it's a waste of money? Someone convinced him to?
Elon is a genius marketer. It's probably his greatest and most valuable skill.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: BrerBear

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
14,082
24,635
NC
L4 means the vehicle knows before if it can complete the trip with no attention.

That's not necessarily true.

L4 just means there's a defined ODD (Operational Design Domain)

There's a HUGE range of what might be in or out of a given systems ODD.

Your paved road example is one. The car might know that in advance (through unexpected accidents, construction, or other things could change the reality of the drive).

Another might be "Can't drive in snow" and it's possible a trip might run into that unexpectedly and be unable to complete it.

Another might be "can only drive in daytime" and depending on traffic and other delay causes it might or might not know if it'll get where it's going before dark.

The vehicle has to be capable of recognizing, in the moment it's happening, that it's about to leave (or is being forced to leave) it's ODD, and be able to "fail" safely (usually thought to mean something like being able to safely pull off the road and/or park in some way)

A human is still not required, even though the car might discover it can't finish the trip- this is still L4 since it can fail safely.


L3 means the vehicle can request you to take over at any moment during the trip, and you have around 10 seconds to take over.

There is absolutely nothing in the definition defining specifically how long you have to take over.... (this is one of the many criticisms people have of the entire concept of L3 as an unsafe compromise)



The vehicle did not know this was going to be needed before it started driving. A human must be present because this could happen at any moment.

Nope. There's no requirement the car know in advance if it can complete the trip at either level.

A human must be present for L3 because the car is not capable of safely handling leaving its ODD on its own.

If it could, it'd be L4.

That's the entire difference in definition. One can leave its ODD without a human, the other can't.

And of course L5 is- there is no ODD- it can drive anywhere a human could.


Regulators ALREADY allow L4 in the USA. Some states have laws specifically allowing it. There is no federal regulation against it. NHTSA has already said they don't have the authority to regulate it. Regulation is a made up boogeyman.

L5 is already legal in some states too.... so yes the "waiting for regulators" thing is largely a red herring.


The real blocker is liability- the owner of the vehicle is liable for any issues. Would you own/operate an L4 car if you were personally responsible when it hurt someone?

This too is currently handled at the state level. Volvo, famously, said they would assume full responsibility for any issues while one of their cars was in any autonomous mode.... (of course they've never released such a thing...)

But I don't think it's the blocker.

The inability of anyone to deliver a properly working L4 system with a worthwhile ODD is.

Waymo is running one with a very narrow ODD in Arizona.

I think there's a few other even more heavily tiny ODDs (like low speed people movers on exclusive roads and such) running around as L4 too.

But none of these ODDs are wide enough to be useful to sell generally.
 
Unfortunately, Elon’s current timeline from about 3-4 weeks ago seems to not be materializing (again, surprise!) unless V.9 gets released this or next week. I’d love to be pleasantly surprised but I expect another delay tweet soon. EOQ could be a factor for recognizing revenue (and also releasing subscription) but obviously the software needs to be ready first.

I’m one of the gullible ones who bought FSD almost 3 years ago. I’m trying to stay hopeful but Elon’s recent silence about FSD is making that difficult. It seems like my radar equipped M3 may be becoming obsolete, although I find the recent messaging quite muttled since the new S/X have radar. Are they just trying to reduce cost on 3/Y or else just a part shortage?

I personally wouldn’t mind a $3k (+interest) refund but obviously that would look terrible for the company and to investors (which I am).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Microterf

Products we're discussing on TMC...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top