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What if FSD doesn't materialize?

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What does that have to do with anything? If the current L2 set of features is worth $10k to you, then go for it. If it's not, then don't buy it. For me, the 7 features included in FSD were "worth it" when I bought it for $6 or 7k (can't remember which).

Have you looked at more basic driver assist packages from other OEMs? Cadillac is still charging customers for Super cruise in the form of an option package. Is $3k+ for basically lane keeping with no lane change capabilities and extremely geo-fenced worth it to you? That's completely up to the buyer.
 
What does that have to do with anything? If the current L2 set of features is worth $10k to you, then go for it. If it's not, then don't buy it. For me, the 7 features included in FSD were "worth it" when I bought it for $6 or 7k (can't remember which).

Have you looked at more basic driver assist packages from other OEMs? Cadillac is still charging customers for Super cruise in the form of an option package. Is $3k+ for basically lane keeping with no lane change capabilities and extremely geo-fenced worth it to you? That's completely up to the buyer.

Feel free to link to where Musk is selling FSD as level 2
 
Feel free to link to where Musk is selling FSD as level 2
Also just a pet peeve, but why do people say "what Musk is selling" like his tweets override the marketing materials and contracts of a public company. I don't think Tesla has been as straightforward about FSD in past as they should have been. Even the name FSD is a misnomer at best. However, I can't fathom why people would spend $10k on something without even reading the description of what they were buying. It's not like these disclaimers are hidden in some legalese, they are right there when you check the "Full Self Driving" option when ordering!
 
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Unlike many, I actually read what I was promised when I bought my car. I'm sorry if you didn't.
The page you quote has only existed since April 2019. Tesla sold cars with AP2 since October 2016. During that time, the description of AP was held at Tesla.com/autopilot (and still is!), which says:

Full Self-Driving Capability​

All new Tesla cars have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

The future use of these features without supervision is dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving capabilities are introduced, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.

For someone that bought between October 2016 and April 2019, what were they supposed to read to understand what the "promised" features of the car were? My 2016 car listed auto wipers, cruise control, highway auto steer, auto braking, etc as features of the car in the manual, on the website, and they were functional during a test drive. It was delivered with none of those, and some of them still didn't exist a year later, despite the website giving a specific date (December 2016) as the date they would roll out.

The idea that it's clear with Tesla what is a promise vs what is marketing puffery is far from true for an average consumer. Why is tesla.com/support/autopilot more binding than tesla.com/autopilot? Even if you only use the /support/autopilot, in April 2019, it said this:
Coming later this year:
  • Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs
  • Automatic driving on city streets
And now, in 2021 after many revisions, it says:
Upcoming:
  • Autosteer on city streets

Hmm, seems like they are at least 16 months late on something "promised."
 
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The page you quote has only existed since April 2019. Tesla sold cars with AP2 since October 2016. During that time, the description of AP was held at Tesla.com/autopilot (and still is!), which says:



For someone that bought between October 2016 and April 2019, what were they supposed to read to understand what the "promised" features of the car were? My 2016 car listed auto wipers, cruise control, highway auto steer, auto braking, etc as features of the car in the manual, on the website, and they were functional during a test drive. It was delivered with none of those, and some of them still didn't exist a year later, despite the website giving a specific date (December 2016) as the date they would roll out.

The idea that it's clear with Tesla what is a promise vs what is marketing puffery is far from true for an average consumer. Why is tesla.com/support/autopilot more binding than tesla.com/autopilot? Even if you only use the /support/autopilot, in April 2019, it said this:

And now, in 2021 after many revisions, it says:


Hmm, seems like they are at least 16 months late on something "promised."
No I absolutely agree that those who bought before April 2019 are owed something different, likely some sort of refund of all or most of the price delta between EAP and FSD.
 
I leased my Model S in early 2019. And I added the FSD option based on their marketing at the time of it being imminent. Yes, I know, sucker born every minute and so on.

My lease is up in early 2022. I wonder if there is any action possible, seeing as they knew I had a three year window and are not delivering the features in that time. Do I raise this now, when Tesla can still claim there is time left to deliver, or wait until the lease is up, at which point they can claim I used the car for the full three years without complaint?
 
... Do I raise this now, when Tesla can still claim there is time left to deliver, or wait until the lease is up, at which point they can claim I used the car for the full three years without complaint?
I'd ask for a refund now. If they don't comply take them to court. Tesla on the order page said automatic driving in city streets coming by end of 2019. They didn't deliver. If you take them to court you can claim a big part of the reason you were drawn to the brand was because of the FSD promise. If they didn't promise you may have purchased something else, so ask for more than the price of FSD in court.
 
I'd ask for a refund now. If they don't comply take them to court.
Depending on your state, consider using the lemon law as well. The car is unable to be repaired to make it perform as described in a way that significantly impacts the usability. The nice thing about lemon laws is they generally have simple, defined processes to follow that make your claim very clear. In my state they even include arbitration for you if the manufacturer pushes back.
 
My only complaint is how they market FSD. It really bugs me that they call it "Full Self Driving". I realize that FSD is the vision but there are a lot of folks that are not in the technology business or understand how software and the development cycles work and purchase this software with skewed expectations. IMO, they should refer to these features as driver assistance features or something to that effect.

Furthermore, this software should all be subscription based at this point and I mean down to the feature. For example, if you want to play around with AutoPark - $3 a month. You want show off the Summon Mode party trick to your friends, $5 per month. Auto-Lane Change - $5. Then, they can create packages or annual commitment discounts with multiple features for a discounted price. If they created a "FSD" subscription for $25 per month and let's say a take rate of 1,000,000 cars. Do the math, that is $25M per month in revenue to fund this software development. This model works so much better for folks that lease or situations like this where Tesla has not delivered in a timely fashion as consumers can unsubscribe if they don't see the value.
 
I leased my Model S in early 2019. And I added the FSD option based on their marketing at the time of it being imminent. Yes, I know, sucker born every minute and so on.

My lease is up in early 2022. I wonder if there is any action possible, seeing as they knew I had a three year window and are not delivering the features in that time. Do I raise this now, when Tesla can still claim there is time left to deliver, or wait until the lease is up, at which point they can claim I used the car for the full three years without complaint?
Did they promise FSD within the period of the original lease? Imminent could be interpreted every which way. Plus, you could renew or extend the lease. So it's not something you can easily trap them with unless they gave a firm date or time period (without the words 'should' or 'maybe' or 'hopefully' or words to that effect being used).

I also keep seeing people claiming they 'owed' something because they bought early and were promised L5. And we've had threads and threads of back and forth on whether they can prevail in court. We'll let's have someone give it shot. My thoughts are Hell will freeze over before anyone gets anything out of Tesla regarding that 'promise'. Prove me wrong.
 
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L3 and L4 is a different story. I expect Tesla to be L3 and L4 wide release before Waymo. Waymo will still be far ahead of Tesla with their tech, but Tesla is o.k. taking risk, Waymo is not.
So you are saying Tesla can reach Level 4 (no need for intervention) within the next ~5 to 6 years? My read of SAE and where we seem to be know tells me SAE Level 3 is a realistic (and likely what most people really mean when they say "Level 5" lol) goal in the next 5 years for the industry (Tesla, Waymo, or otherwise). Level 4 and Level 5 (as defined by SAE ) seem highly unlikely in the next decade IMO. BUT I'm no expert. Just a layman observer of this stuff so hopefully I am wrong :)