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What if FSD doesn't materialize?

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Perhaps with Musk apparently become more realistic about FSD the cars will have more features added to remain competitive.

Part of the minimalism of the cars is based on the arrival of FSD as an extraordinary feature. While I like the the minimalism in general, some of Tesla's choices come off as cheap. Like lack of appropriate blind spot warning, under door paint protection, sound insulation, interior lighting, and more robust power points.
 
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Somewhat investor related, but in today's 10-Q published by Tesla, they admit for the first time that full self driving may never materialize.
 
Each state has their own transportation departments and each state has their own transportation laws enacted by their legislature. Congress also makes transportation related laws too as well as the Federal Highway Administration. I believe in some states local counties or cities can have some say in transportation regulations too.
Great. Thank you.

Now, could you point to the procedure in one of these agencies for getting "regulatory approval" for a fully autonomous car?
 
Great. Thank you.

Now, could you point to the procedure in one of these agencies for getting "regulatory approval" for a fully autonomous car?


In some none is required- if the maker says it can obey all traffic laws, it's legal to put on the road today.

In some they need to officially file paperwork saying that (but nobody checks if it's true) and can then put them on the road.

In some there's significant approval required and significant limits on what you can put on the road and significant reporting requirements when doing so.

In some there's no mechanism for approval yet and they can't be put on the road there period.
 
I am not a native english speaker. Can you please explain how this last sentence in the quote above can be understood?

There is no guarantee

that

any incremental changes in the specific equipment we deploy in our vehicles

over time

will not result in initial functional disparities from prior iterations

or

will perform as expected in the timeframe we anticipate,

or

at all.
 
I am not a native english speaker. Can you please explain how this last sentence in the quote above can be understood?

There is no guarantee

that

any incremental changes in the specific equipment we deploy in our vehicles

over time

will not result in initial functional disparities from prior iterations

or

will perform as expected in the timeframe we anticipate,

or

at all.
The way I understand it is that when they bring out new HW, it's possible it could be worse than the existing stuff until it gets better. Reminds me of how AP1 functioned better than AP2 for a while after it first came out.
 
The way I understand it is that when they bring out new HW, it's possible it could be worse than the existing stuff until it gets better. Reminds me of how AP1 functioned better than AP2 for a while after it first came out.
Thanks! That helps. So it can be read as follows?

There is no guarantee that with new HW any incremental changes in the specific equipment we deploy in our vehicles over time
FSD will not be worse until it gets better will not result in initial functional disparities from prior iterations

or

There is no guarantee that with new HW any incremental changes in the specific equipment we deploy in our vehicles over time
FSD will perform as expected in the timeframe we anticipate,

or

There is no guarantee that with new HW any incremental changes in the specific equipment we deploy in our vehicles over time
FSD will perform at all.
 
Here is the equivalent passage from Tesla’s last quarterly 10-Q filing, definitely some significant changes
 

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Perhaps with Musk apparently become more realistic about FSD the cars will have more features added to remain competitive.

Part of the minimalism of the cars is based on the arrival of FSD as an extraordinary feature. While I like the the minimalism in general, some of Tesla's choices come off as cheap. Like lack of appropriate blind spot warning, under door paint protection, sound insulation, interior lighting, and more robust power points.

Don't count on it. Elon is a minimalist. It took significant criticism to include the optional center console as standard equipment in the Model S.

To stay competitive Tesla is much more likely to cut prices. Right now I think they have the largest profit margins of any car maker in the world. They have kept the prices where they are because they sell as many cars as they can make at that price point. Tesla gets their batteries significantly cheaper than any other car maker, which is a significant advantage. They also run the company incredibly lean. It hurts service IMO, but it also makes them a hard competitor.

Tesla is also the only car company outside of China mass producing EVs. There are a lot of other cars coming out, but none are made in large volumes yet. At this point in time all the competition is battery bound. They can't get enough batteries to mass produce an EV if they wanted to.

Tesla has a production advantage for at least another 2 years, probably longer. During that time the Cybertruck, Semi and new battery tech will all be coming into production. They will start making cars in Germany and expand production in China. They will continue to have the best long distance charging network. CCS networks are expanding quickly, but there aren't even any plans to make CCS charging as convenient and no brainer as supercharging.

Tesla might end of top of the pack in FSD and it might not. There are a lot of unknowns there between all the different technological approaches and regulatory issues.

Great. Thank you.

Now, could you point to the procedure in one of these agencies for getting "regulatory approval" for a fully autonomous car?

That also has a number of different approaches. To get legislative approval usually involves lobbyists handing sympathetic legislators copies of the bill the company wants passed and hope it makes it into law. Regulatory agencies require the company to ask for the agency to change its rules and jump through any hoops they ask for. To change a local ordinance would probably involve approaching the council that is in charge.

The US has the most multi-layered government structures in the world. The upside is that it makes it very difficult for a bad actor at the top to break the system entirely, but it can also be a massive headache to get regulations changed.

I am not a native english speaker. Can you please explain how this last sentence in the quote above can be understood?

There is no guarantee

that

any incremental changes in the specific equipment we deploy in our vehicles

over time

will not result in initial functional disparities from prior iterations

or

will perform as expected in the timeframe we anticipate,

or

at all.

It looks like it was written by a lawyer paid by the word. My partner is an attorney and taught legal writing. She would have failed a student who wrote something like that.

In short is looks like Tesla is trying to give themselves some wiggle room saying they may not be able to deliver what they promised, or they might be able to deliver with added hardware. They aren't sure yet.

At least that's how I read it.
 
Reminds me of HW 2.5 and missing traffic cones in the visualization. Folks (many in China) complained and then they got traffic cones.

Older hardware might be left behind. No surprise here. Also no surprise that the usual suspects completely misinterpret this as something nefarious.

I have HW3 and the FSD option in my Y. If FSD gets deployed on HW3, then I'm stuck with it and Tesla doesn't owe me anything. If FSD gets pushed to HW4, then I get a new computer. HW4 & SW/firmware likely will have more and better functionality that HW3 can't support. Likewise with HW5 ...etc...

Tesla will probably provide computer upgrades, but you'll have to pay for it.

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Somewhat investor related, but in today's 10-Q published by Tesla, they admit for the first time that full self driving may never materialize.
 
Tesla = computer on wheels. HW gets outdated.

Apple is sort of notorious for this. My iPhone 6 is stuck on some old version of the OS (12?) that's missing a bunch of functions and features I read about daily.

That was my logic as well for purchasing FSD. I think it will happen on my Y but if it needs a HW upgrade, I believe purchasing FSD entitles me to the upgrade just like what happened with the AP2 folks.
 
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Tesla = computer on wheels. HW gets outdated.

Good thing they explicitly designed the driving computer to be modular and swappable then, huh?


Apple is sort of notorious for this.

Apple is notorious for the opposite of this- making their stuff hard or impossible to upgrade rather than throw out and buy a new one.
 
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Tesla will probably provide computer upgrades, but you'll have to pay for it.
Why do you think you'll need to pay for it when Tesla has said "All cars come with the HW needed for FSD at a level safer than a human driver" since 2016? I mean if they can do FSD on HW3 at that level, sure, but if those "additional features" in HW4/5/X are part of being safer than a human than Tesla already indicated that you paid for them with the purchase of your car.
 
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That also has a number of different approaches. To get legislative approval usually involves lobbyists handing sympathetic legislators copies of the bill the company wants passed and hope it makes it into law. Regulatory agencies require the company to ask for the agency to change its rules and jump through any hoops they ask for. To change a local ordinance would probably involve approaching the council that is in charge.

The US has the most multi-layered government structures in the world. The upside is that it makes it very difficult for a bad actor at the top to break the system entirely, but it can also be a massive headache to get regulations changed.

That's all well and good; you have described a typical government approval process. What I continue to try and point out is that in the USA there is no government process to "approve" an autonomous vehicle. There is no delay for "regulatory approval" because no such thing exists. All it takes to get an autonomous car on the road is for the manufacturer to have enough confidence in their system to put it on the road.

The only real example we have right now is Waymo. What government agency granted them a license to operate? Where is the paperwork granting that authorization? Can you link to the source? The answer is no because there is no overseeing authority in Arizona, because it is not required. There are no rules to change because there are no rules to begin with.

Here is Arizona's requirements:


Relevant quote
operation of vehicles that do not have a person present in the vehicle shall be allowed only if such vehicles are fully autonomous, and if prior to commencing testing or operation of the fully autonomous vehicles, an Autonomous Vehicle Testing Statement and Certification has been submitted to the Arizona Department of Transportation

Fill out a form to let Arizona know your self-driving cars are on the road, and "regulatory approval" is complete.
 
I can't predict the future or what they will do with new hardware but I can say with certainty the hardware and sensors that currency on the cars are not capable of anything but level 2 driver assist which is consistent with what they have told regulators. If FSD is level 4/5 then it's nto possible unless they upgrade the sensors to be self cleaning among many other issues. So I guess as long as you keep your FSD expectations in line you won't be disappointed. I do feel it's disengenous at the very least to keep selling it and saying it will drive itself some day which it isn't even being designed to do such a thing.
 
Why do you think you'll need to pay for it when Tesla has said "All cars come with the HW needed for FSD at a level safer than a human driver" since 2016? I mean if they can do FSD on HW3 at that level, sure, but if those "additional features" in HW4/5/X are part of being safer than a human than Tesla already indicated that you paid for them with the purchase of your car.
This was discussed in the past. Tesla is only required to provide the "bare minimum" to meet their promises with the older hardware. They are not required to provide all the features newer hardware may provide.