Citizen-T
Active Member
I think if they didn't have the ability to churn out a limited series of MX's right now Elon wouldn't have said that they do on the ER.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
I think if they didn't have the ability to churn out a limited series of MX's right now Elon wouldn't have said that they do on the ER.
Trev Page
Member
Engineering on Model X is done. The delay is all about manufacturing. Tesla wants to have a much faster production ramp than Model S did so they have to make sure things are right from the beginning. Production ramp up on Model S was upwards of a year so they can't afford that kind of time scale. This fact is extremely important too when the model 3 arrives, they will need to ramp up even faster there.
Personally FWIW I believe the MX will come out with the falcon doors - just to set Tesla even further apart from run-of-the-mill.....
And all the other delay theories make sense too. Just can't help feeling that the doors are a part of the issue. I imagine Tesla want to get them perfect and repeatable for future cars - seems a waste to expend so much energy for one show-stopping feature on one model! I can imagine them on coupe versions; smaller SUVs; roadsters (especially).....
Can't wait to see the production version (if they actually arrive..?!)
By the way wrt some other comments, I don't believe re-engineering the MX for normal/sliding doors would be a big deal. The main change would be no huge cut-out in the roof! Maybe somewhere down the road, different doors will be offered as an option.
And all the other delay theories make sense too. Just can't help feeling that the doors are a part of the issue. I imagine Tesla want to get them perfect and repeatable for future cars - seems a waste to expend so much energy for one show-stopping feature on one model! I can imagine them on coupe versions; smaller SUVs; roadsters (especially).....
Can't wait to see the production version (if they actually arrive..?!)
By the way wrt some other comments, I don't believe re-engineering the MX for normal/sliding doors would be a big deal. The main change would be no huge cut-out in the roof! Maybe somewhere down the road, different doors will be offered as an option.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
I'm guessing you have not had to change dimensions on even one part. Just a small tolerance change has a ripple effect, much less a major design change.
Yes, it would be a big deal.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
In recent interviews and on the last conference call Elon has spoken in length about his opinions on the challenges of great manufacturing and the importance of striving for perfection. If you think making 5 or 10 Xs is difficult, try making 500/week while maintaing quality. No, it's not easy to change the doors. Actually it wouldn't be very far from starting from scratch. Seriously. Will. Not. Happen.
Elon Musk: 'People Don't Understand How Hard It Is To Manufacture Something' - Business Insider
Last edited:
The doors are not simply "doors". They are an integral part of the design, the stability of the chassis, they determin how the whole structure behaves in a crash, etc. Changing the doors would almost be like starting the car all over. (I think). Not to mention it would be a huge PR disaster.
I too believe at this point it's all about manufacturing. They said the alphas are done, so to me that means the engineering is done. What they are doing now with the betas is tweaking things for high volume manufacturing. Running the design through a simulated or real production flow and looking for phases which are too slow, optimizing things for ramp up.
Even with the new production line, every X produced will be one less S produced. This is because of the battery limitiations. So they need to think hard about when to give the green light. Right now they are doing about 1k cars per week. X could even raise ASP so if it becomes 500 S and 500 X that may even raise margins, or at the very least have no negative effects. If production falls back to 800 total, because it is taking the same time to build 300 X as it takes to finish 500 S, we have a problem.
I too believe at this point it's all about manufacturing. They said the alphas are done, so to me that means the engineering is done. What they are doing now with the betas is tweaking things for high volume manufacturing. Running the design through a simulated or real production flow and looking for phases which are too slow, optimizing things for ramp up.
Even with the new production line, every X produced will be one less S produced. This is because of the battery limitiations. So they need to think hard about when to give the green light. Right now they are doing about 1k cars per week. X could even raise ASP so if it becomes 500 S and 500 X that may even raise margins, or at the very least have no negative effects. If production falls back to 800 total, because it is taking the same time to build 300 X as it takes to finish 500 S, we have a problem.
Are any here knowledgeable of aircraft design (I'm not)? I was thinking of passenger crafts' doors. They certainly have been able to be engineered so that they (1) can withstand a little bit of air flowing by them at speed :wink:; (2) maintain their seal and other integrity over many thousands of hours of turbulence (pothole analogy); and (3) can be opened and shut in an efficient manner (think of the emergency exit protocol).
Compared to those, it would seem to me that designing and manufacturing a falcon door for an automobile would be a walk in the park. But then, IANAE.
Compared to those, it would seem to me that designing and manufacturing a falcon door for an automobile would be a walk in the park. But then, IANAE.
Wait! You mean there are no crash tests for airplanes?! I'm gonna think twice about ever boarding one again... :tongue:
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This.
The 10-Q that Tesla filed a few days ago with the SEC stated that the Alpha phase was just about over, and that construction of Betas had already started.
This means that not only is the Model X design locked-in, it's confirmed to work as intended.
The task ahead for Tesla is figuring out and implementing how to build Model X in a mass-production setting. Elon had stated that building one of anything is relatively easy, but building hundreds and then thousands of that same thing is much much harder. There are numerous factors to consider in a mass production line, from supply chain management to the exact sequence of building to quality/tolerance issues.
Choreographing all of this is what takes so long.
The X ships when it ships, but I do hope Tesla shows something soon.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
You and me, both. If that doesn't stop all this 'maybe they won't have falcon doors, maybe the falcon doors are holding things up' speculation, I don't know what will. Making. Me. Nuts.
One reason people blame the doors is they're hopeful they'll be omitted.
Another reason is it's a pretty technical challenge. Compare it all you want to hatchbacks and the back door of a MS. It's not remotely the same thing. I worry about clearance on my MS hatchback door all the time, because it doesn't sense and stop itself from hitting a wall or ceiling. And I'm usually right behind it with my hand on it. I can't be on two sides of a car at the same time. I don't know if a rake is hanging close, or a small concrete filled parking block protruding just slightly above the swing of the door. Engineering has to get the sensors flawless, or people will be coming back with requests for body repairs because the doors were bumping into things (right or wrong). It's a challenge. And while I get that Tesla is well above the challenge, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the doors could have set things back to some degree.
Another reason is it's a pretty technical challenge. Compare it all you want to hatchbacks and the back door of a MS. It's not remotely the same thing. I worry about clearance on my MS hatchback door all the time, because it doesn't sense and stop itself from hitting a wall or ceiling. And I'm usually right behind it with my hand on it. I can't be on two sides of a car at the same time. I don't know if a rake is hanging close, or a small concrete filled parking block protruding just slightly above the swing of the door. Engineering has to get the sensors flawless, or people will be coming back with requests for body repairs because the doors were bumping into things (right or wrong). It's a challenge. And while I get that Tesla is well above the challenge, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that the doors could have set things back to some degree.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Hugh Mannity
Mediocre Member
Yeah! Plan is to use ours as a "camper van" too when the need arises, hopefully the config of the x lends itself to being very ulitarian
I think the exterior wood panelling to be PERFECT might be the biggest holdup right now; getting that lacewood or obeche matte/gloss on the exterior surfaces; safety rating issues; maybe some aero drag issues? Or weight issues - I can just see Elon poring at 3 AM over some wood surface saying "the grain's gotta be RIGHT! Oak may have better aerodynamics! The paneling can't have any bevels!"
You think it's going to be an extra cost or a default feature for all MXs? Will Signature holders be able to configure other types of exterior wood? Can't wait!! I may start a poll to ask which wood exterior you're all likely to get to help Tesla design a better product.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
It's been mentioned all over the forums for a long time! How else you explain that the gigafactory will most maybe have that reforestation project nextdoor? Wood takes 6 months to station right, and the Model X is delayed 6 months. Coincidence? Plus there has been no interviews with Elon, or news on investor sites saying that the feature was cancelled.
