What is my car worth? tesla low balling me

[ucmndd]

Were we not supposed to note most of the cars listed in your example had list dates from 2017 ?

Surely an oversight on your behalf.

Most certainly an oversight. I went to the OnlyUsedTesla site and added search filters for comparable cars. It's rather absurd to me that they'd be displaying listings from 3 years ago. What possible value does that have?

Regardless, I'm not suggesting that those values are accurate either - they're almost certainly aspirational at this point, particularly after recent price reductions, and the real transaction numbers are somewhere lower.

As for the "great thing about mathematics"... yes, the numbers don't lie - they tell exactly the story you intend them to. In your case, you're suggesting the actual market value of your car is $18,500 and basing your depreciation math on that. "The math" isn't lying in that case, it's the person setting the values in the equation.

Allow me to put it another way. Post your car for sale in the classified section of this forum for $18,500. It will be gone in 24 hours. That's a strong indicator that you're probably below actual market value.

 

[SoCal Buzz]

There aren’t many auto manufacturers that have consistently driven down the cost of their product to the same extent. Tesla funded their R&D and goal of creating the Model 3, essentially as a start up, by selling the early S and X flagships (and others) at much higher prices. Not sure it’s appropriate to represent this as depreciation, given nature of the company. Tesla is now passing along the benefits of scale and efficiency in lower prices for better products. Even my 2018 can now be purchased for $20K+ less, with 65 miles more range. No pano that opens of course, so not bad

 

[David_Cary]

Cleo - I have to wonder the logic of buying a P when you admittedly don't have money to burn and your objective is environmental.

Depreciation on P cars was really bad. Tesla has its priorities and loyalty to early adopters is clearly not it.

The depreciation on my cars has been pretty good - because they are more practical choices. 70D and M3-LR (RWD).

The reality is that you have a car worth high 20's probably. So you have had the car for 3 years with about $22k depreciation. Not bad considering the performance/range etc in the time frame. A new model 3 would probably have been closer to 1/2 that.

 

[CapeOne]

Most certainly an oversight. I went to the OnlyUsedTesla site and added search filters for comparable cars. It's rather absurd to me that they'd be displaying listings from 3 years ago. What possible value does that have?

Listing on that site is a one-time fee regardless of how long it takes to sell and therefore a listing will remain active until the seller identifies car as sold. About 25% to 30% of the "for sale" listings are at least two years old.

 

[CapeOne]

Tesla funded their R&D and goal of creating the Model 3, essentially as a start up, by selling the early S and X flagships (and others) at much higher prices. Not sure it’s appropriate to represent this as depreciation, given nature of the company.

To the consumer, depreciation is deprecation whether it be due to price pressures in the market, improved efficiencies, new competition, changing demand or whatever. Just in the last six months alone, Tesla has lowered the base price of the MS LR+ by more than $10k including two reductions within days of each other. Once in reaction to the entry level Lucid Air model which isn't even due to come on the market for over a year.

For current owners, lower new Tesla prices do take away some of the sting of depreciation at least if you are looking to buy another Tesla. Yes, your current car may have depreciated a lot but you can get a new Tesla for potentially a lot less too.

There is going to continue to be notable price volatility in the EV market in the coming years as new competition enters the space, production and technologies improve, tax credits change, etc.

 

[Cleo-n-Company]

Cleo - I have to wonder the logic of buying a P when you admittedly don't have money to burn and your objective is environmental.

Depreciation on P cars was really bad. Tesla has its priorities and loyalty to early adopters is clearly not it.

The depreciation on my cars has been pretty good - because they are more practical choices. 70D and M3-LR (RWD).

The reality is that you have a car worth high 20's probably. So you have had the car for 3 years with about $22k depreciation. Not bad considering the performance/range etc in the time frame. A new model 3 would probably have been closer to 1/2 that.

David - The 3's weren't out yet when we bought our S. And who could complain ? When our S was behaving itself it was an awesome car. The P+ was pretty cool with its ceramic wheels... subtle rear spoiler... pano roof etc.

You correctly note Tesla's priorities. Treating your early adopters like garbage is not a sound strategy. Early adopters tend to have loud mouths and strong opinions. So if you treat them like crud, they'll let everyone else know.

 

[Cleo-n-Company]

There aren’t many auto manufacturers that have consistently driven down the cost of their product to the same extent. Tesla funded their R&D and goal of creating the Model 3, essentially as a start up, by selling the early S and X flagships (and others) at much higher prices. Not sure it’s appropriate to represent this as depreciation, given nature of the company. Tesla is now passing along the benefits of scale and efficiency in lower prices for better products. Even my 2018 can now be purchased for $20K+ less, with 65 miles more range. No pano that opens of course, so not bad

To the consumer, depreciation is deprecation whether it be due to price pressures in the market, improved efficiencies, new competition, changing demand or whatever. Just in the last six months alone, Tesla has lowered the base price of the MS LR+ by more than $10k including two reductions within days of each other. Once in reaction to the entry level Lucid Air model which isn't even due to come on the market for over a year.

For current owners, lower new Tesla prices do take away some of the sting of depreciation at least if you are looking to buy another Tesla. Yes, your current car may have depreciated a lot but you can get a new Tesla for potentially a lot less too.

There is going to continue to be notable price volatility in the EV market in the coming years as new competition enters the space, production and technologies improve, tax credits change, etc.

Tesla is going to have a difficult 2021 - IMHO.

As the legacy automakers release their Model 3 competitors, Tesla is going to face headwinds because of the $7500 price disadvantage, at least during that initial 200K federal tax credit stage for its competitors.

In addition, Tesla's horrible and inefficient sales delivery and service model is going to get a lot more negative press, and plant seeds of doubt in many buyer's minds.

Sure - the Model 3 has its range advantage. But many buyers will happily trade some range for a comparable car with a superior sales and service experience.

Elon has been whistling by the graveyard and getting away with it the last few years. But the times they are 'a changin.

 

[Zorg]

Tesla is going to have a difficult 2021 - IMHO.

As the legacy automakers release their Model 3 competitors, Tesla is going to face headwinds because of the $7500 price disadvantage, at least during that initial 200K federal tax credit stage for its competitors.

In addition, Tesla's horrible and inefficient sales delivery and service model is going to get a lot more negative press, and plant seeds of doubt in many buyer's minds.

Sure - the Model 3 has its range advantage. But many buyers will happily trade some range for a comparable car with a superior sales and service experience.

Elon has been whistling by the graveyard and getting away with it the last few years. But the times they are 'a changin.

Turns out that the moat is the supercharging network. Tesla got at least a year or two before worrying about competitors.

 

[ucmndd]

Tesla is going to have a difficult 2021 - IMHO.

As the legacy automakers release their Model 3 competitors, Tesla is going to face headwinds because of the $7500 price disadvantage, at least during that initial 200K federal tax credit stage for its competitors.

In addition, Tesla's horrible and inefficient sales delivery and service model is going to get a lot more negative press, and plant seeds of doubt in many buyer's minds.

Sure - the Model 3 has its range advantage. But many buyers will happily trade some range for a comparable car with a superior sales and service experience.

Elon has been whistling by the graveyard and getting away with it the last few years. But the times they are 'a changin.

FWIW, Tesla was going to have a very difficult 2017 for all of the same reasons.

And 2018.

And 2019.

You get the idea. This tired trope has been trotted out regularly for nearly a decade now.

 

[Cleo-n-Company]

FWIW, Tesla was going to have a very difficult 2017 for all of the same reasons.

And 2018.

And 2019.

You get the idea. This tired trope has been trotted out regularly for nearly a decade now.

Potentially competitive vehicles didn't exist in years past. They will in 2021. Guess we'll see.

 

[ucmndd]

Potentially competitive vehicles didn't exist in years past. They will in 2021. Guess we'll see.

They were supposed to exist in 2017 too.

And 2018.
And 2019.

you get the idea. Yes, I suppose we’ll see.

 

[Zorg]

Let's have that same discussion next year... again. Tesla is running away with the EV market in the US.

 

[Kamm145]

Does anyone have a definitive answer to this resale question:

I have a 2015 Model S 70D that I purchased in 2018 from Tesla as part of their CPO program and it included free Supercharging. Would the Supercharging transfer over to someone in a private sale?

 

[patrick40363]

Does anyone have a definitive answer to this resale question:

I have a 2015 Model S 70D that I purchased in 2018 from Tesla as part of their CPO program and it included free Supercharging. Would the Supercharging transfer over to someone in a private sale?

Yes

 

[ucmndd]

Does anyone have a definitive answer to this resale question:

I have a 2015 Model S 70D that I purchased in 2018 from Tesla as part of their CPO program and it included free Supercharging. Would the Supercharging transfer over to someone in a private sale?

Doubtful. Tesla had long ago discontinued the “transferrable” part of the free unlimited supercharging when they sold it to you as a CPO.

 

[Cleo-n-Company]

Let's have that same discussion next year... again. Tesla is running away with the EV market in the US.

I dunno. Model S and X reliability are horrible. Enough of these big guys have been on the road long enough where the track record is out... and the track ain't looking so smooth.

A lot of the folks who have a beef with the company (myself included) aren't on some banzai mission wanting Tesla to implode. Most of us are owners who typically enjoy the cars when they are behaving themselves, but can't understand how or why the company typically treats its customers like human waste after the sale.

Truth be told - Tesla owners should welcome new competition - since that finally force Elon to get

Turns out that the moat is the supercharging network. Tesla got at least a year or two before worrying about competitors.

That supercharger network ain't no moat. It's a convenience.

What is quickly becoming a moat - in terms of a deterrent to purchase -- are the horrible reliability rankings piling up behind the S and Y and X.

 

[Zorg]

I dunno. Model S and X reliability are horrible. Enough of these big guys have been on the road long enough where the track record is out... and the track ain't looking so smooth.

A lot of the folks who have a beef with the company (myself included) aren't on some banzai mission wanting Tesla to implode. Most of us are owners who typically enjoy the cars when they are behaving themselves, but can't understand how or why the company typically treats its customers like human waste after the sale.

Truth be told - Tesla owners should welcome new competition - since that finally force Elon to get

That supercharger network ain't no moat. It's a convenience.

What is quickly becoming a moat - in terms of a deterrent to purchase -- are the horrible reliability rankings piling up behind the S and Y and X.

Agree that reliability and customer service need to improve but in the US the SC network is a difference maker if you're buying an EV to drive long distances.

 

[ucmndd]

I dunno. Model S and X reliability are horrible.

Meh. I think that's a broad exaggeration, especially in the case of the S.

They've got a few problem areas that have been addressed over time. MCU, air suspension, etc.

X has the craptastic falcon wing doors, which I agree still seem to be a big reliability problem and a reason I'd never own one.

My S has been dead reliable in 115,000 miles. My experience, while not entirely typical, is also not entirely abnormal.

That supercharger network ain't no moat. It's a convenience.

For me it's a convenience that is the singular difference between owning an EV as my only means of transport and not. I'd never own a non-Tesla EV as my only vehicle. It's literally the difference between a car being viable transportation for almost any scenario and being limited to an around-town runabout. That's far more than a "convenience".

 

[whitex]

Musk claims that it will achieve full autonomous driving capability by the end of next year.

Tesla did already start to increase the price of the Full Self-Driving package.

Now Musk claims that Tesla’s cars “should be worth $100,000 to $200,000” with full self-driving capability:
...
Electrek’s Take
I agree with Elon about the difference between a revenue-generating asset and an actual appreciating asset, but there’s another problem here.

Elon is right that with full self-driving capability, if Tesla keeps increasing prices, Tesla’s vehicles would become appreciating assets.

Total fanboy BS. Go try to lease a Tesla with FSD today, and see what residual value Tesla actually puts on the car in 3 years (which is way after the "end of next year" Elon confidence date). Elon is their boss right, so they should believe him, but do they? Let us know if you manage to get Tesla to pay you to drive their car for the next 3 years (which they would have to if the residual in 3 years is higher than the price today).

Elon's "appreciating asset" hype is aimed at people who kept on whining "when am I ever going to use this" throughout math classes, rather than learning it.

 

[whitex]

They were supposed to exist in 2017 too.

And 2018.
And 2019.

you get the idea. Yes, I suppose we’ll see.

Well, they are already coming. Recently, Tesla went from being #1 for a long time to #7 for EV sales in Norway (7 Fully Electric Vehicles In Norway's Top 10). They barely sold more than BMW i3, and got outsold by the LEAF almost 2:1. The top vehicle was the Audi eTron which outsold the Model 3 more than 4:1.

Similar fate likely awaits in other countries once the rest of the EV lineups arrive there. A lot more EV's are coming in the next 2 years, even if half of them don't make it, Tesla will still be facing stiff competition.