What is "private beta" vs "public beta" vs "wide EAP" vs "early access" vs "wide release"

[Mardak]

Some weeks ago mid-September, Elon Musk made a distinction between "private beta" and "public beta" when talking about FSD beta. "Releasing private beta in 2 to 4 weeks, public beta (early access owners who opt in) 4 to 6 weeks after that, then all US Tesla owners mid December. Above schedule is contingent upon not encountering major unexpected setbacks." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1304802133355556864

Last year September, he mentioned "wide EAP" before v10 was released towards the end of September. "Still too buggy to be in wide EAP. Requires more testing. Hopefully, going to wide EAP next week." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1169643664806539264

And end of last year before the FSD sneak preview: "Needs a few more days of validation, then early access, then wide release" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1207916492265680897

Perhaps most interesting is his "early access owners who opt in" clarification of "public beta." Is what people traditionally referring to "early access program" the "private beta" as Tesla needs to privately invite people? Is the "opt in" referring to people who have accepted the invite or something else?

 

[josher32]

Some weeks ago mid-September, Elon Musk made a distinction between "private beta" and "public beta" when talking about FSD beta. "Releasing private beta in 2 to 4 weeks, public beta (early access owners who opt in) 4 to 6 weeks after that, then all US Tesla owners mid December. Above schedule is contingent upon not encountering major unexpected setbacks." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1304802133355556864

Last year September, he mentioned "wide EAP" before v10 was released towards the end of September. "Still too buggy to be in wide EAP. Requires more testing. Hopefully, going to wide EAP next week." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1169643664806539264

And end of last year before the FSD sneak preview: "Needs a few more days of validation, then early access, then wide release" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1207916492265680897

Perhaps most interesting is his "early access owners who opt in" clarification of "public beta." Is what people traditionally referring to "early access program" the "private beta" as Tesla needs to privately invite people? Is the "opt in" referring to people who have accepted the invite or something else?

Great question but I believe what is currently out is the private beta and public beta to EAP for EAP who opt in is coming. I suppose though we also could be seeing the public beta given that these folks were allowed to show the public the beta version. Hard to say and would be nice to hear more clarification from Elon.

 

[Mardak]

Just to fill out the list of other terminology and timing used for the FSD beta…

2 weeks ago / 0 weeks before beta: "FSD beta rollout happening tonight. Will be extremely slow & cautious, as it should." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1318678258339221505

3 weeks ago / 1 week before beta: "Limited FSD beta releasing on Tuesday next week, as promised. This will, at first, be limited to a small number of people who are expert & careful drivers." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1315616137464307718

7 weeks ago / 5 weeks before beta: "Releasing private beta in 2 to 4 weeks, public beta (early access owners who opt in) 4 to 6 weeks after that, then all US Tesla owners mid December. Above schedule is contingent upon not encountering major unexpected setbacks." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1304802133355556864

11 weeks ago / 9 weeks before beta: "The FSD improvement will come as a quantum leap, because it’s a fundamental architectural rewrite, not an incremental tweak. I drive the bleeding edge alpha build in my car personally. Almost at zero interventions between home & work. Limited public release in 6 to 10 weeks." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1294374864657162240

17 weeks ago / 15 weeks before beta: "A lot of functionality will happen all at once when we transition to the new software stack. Most likely, it will be releasable in 2 to 4 months. Then it’s a question of what functionality is proven safe enough to enable for owners." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1278539278356791298

 

[tsh2]

That looks encouragingly well estimated.

 

[Mardak]

Some reason I don't seem to recall these tweets from last year around the time of v10 release:

August 20: "Everyone who bought FSD will receive priority/early access" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1163960494798938112

September 14: "Going to early access (including all who bought FSD) Tesla owners in US next week. If US early access rollout looks good, then rest of world early access owners following week. Might be some delays in EU for regulatory approval." https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1172920449929363456

September 26: "Tesla V10.0 just started rolling out to all US Tesla owners with FSD option & “advanced download” selected in vehicle software settings" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1177235772857970688

According to the v10 thread from last year, quite a few people got the update within a day of that last tweet.

Do we expect the FSD "public beta" to be of the same audience that got the update after the official v10 blog went out? If so, that would mean thousands more people potentially getting FSD beta in 2-4 weeks?

 

[Gasaraki]

Beta - "minimum viable product you will release it to test with real users"

Private beta - "A private Beta is a Beta that isn’t open to everyone. Invite-only"
Public beta - "A public Beta is a version of your service that’s available for any member of the public to use. It will exist at the same time as the current available service. This version of the prototype is available to all users, who can choose to use it if they are willing to try something new"

EAP - Early Access Program. If you are a member of their early access problem, you get new software early...
Wide EAP - Everyone in the EAP access will get the software, not just some.

Wide release - release to everyone that purchased FSD. This is not a beta anymore, it is release software.

 

[murc585]

I’m curious to hear how others perceive it, but this is the way I interpret it. (Only applies to US for now)

Private Beta: where we were right now with hand-picked limited number of users.

EAP: Those who purchased FSD and have selected the “Advanced” option in vehicle info. Similar to the “wide-ish” release of V10.

Wide-release: will be V11 offered to everyone, even if you didn’t select the “Advanced” option.

I don’t have proof, just my interpretation.
I would imagine Canada/Norway private beta would start when EAP is released in the US.

 

[Gasaraki]

I’m curious to hear how others perceive it, but this is the way I interpret it. (Only applies to US for now)

Private Beta: where we were right now with hand-picked limited number of users.

EAP: Those who purchased FSD and have selected the “Advanced” option in vehicle info. Similar to the “wide-ish” release of V10.

Wide-release: will be V11 offered to everyone, even if you didn’t select the “Advanced” option.

I don’t have proof, just my interpretation.
I would imagine Canada/Norway private beta would start when EAP is released in the US.

No, EAP-Early Access Program was a real program that people could opt in. It is no longer accepting new members.

 

[Mardak]

I would imagine Canada/Norway private beta would start when EAP is released in the US.

If the 4-6 weeks after private beta is still accurate, this potentially could be as early as next week or until the end of November. Although then again there might have been some "major unexpected setbacks."

 

[ThomasD]

How long before Tesla is testing without backup drivers like Waymo is doing now? We only have 48 more days until 1 million robo taxis are on the road.

 

[Spacep0d]

Beta - "minimum viable product you will release it to test with real users"

Private beta - "A private Beta is a Beta that isn’t open to everyone. Invite-only"
Public beta - "A public Beta is a version of your service that’s available for any member of the public to use. It will exist at the same time as the current available service. This version of the prototype is available to all users, who can choose to use it if they are willing to try something new"

EAP - Early Access Program. If you are a member of their early access problem, you get new software early...
Wide EAP - Everyone in the EAP access will get the software, not just some.

Wide release - release to everyone that purchased FSD. This is not a beta anymore, it is release software.

Hehe you sound like a developer!

 

[moa999]

I think the 'Private Beta' is the current phase.
From a few comments on YTbers page most people who currently have it have been asked to sign an NDA. A few select vloggers have been allowed to publish.

And then like most normal rollouts I'd expect it to go to FSD/Advanced (possibly in a December .48 release, but maybe not till January) and then filter out with the remainder of v11 and no doubt a few version updates to all cars.

 

[LowlyOilBurner]

I’d like to see a quarter of what FSD Beta can do trickle down to us regular FSD folks.

 

[Mardak]

Green estimated the private beta 2 weeks ago had ~80 people (where only a smaller number are allowed to publicly share experiences) [FSD Beta] There's more people testing, these are just the ones allowed to share it. : RealTesla

Some more were added a few days ago Friday along with 2020.44.10.2 Tesla Autopilot FSD Beta Reportedly Expanding Tonight or Tomorrow

And potentially some more yesterday https://twitter.com/Kristennetten/status/1328528754453319680

So maybe the number of people is over 100 now? I wonder how large a private beta can get before regulators push back or Tesla switches to public beta. I suppose if Tesla is adding to the private, they probably will allow some time to collect feedback and data before moving to the next phase.

 

[turnem]

I'm thinking that we will see a broader release of FSD by the end of January at the latest but possibly by the end of December.

There's an outside chance of a November release.

These are all pure guesses on my part based on what I'm seeing and are probably highly influenced by my eagerness to have the software myself!

 

[Mardak]

"If next week’s release looks good, we will widen beta" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1329443580398678018

So far FSD private beta releases:
Wednesday October 21 2020.40.8.10 (initial release)
Friday October 23 2020.40.8.11
Friday October 30 2020.40.8.12 (updated UI)
Friday November 6 2020.40.8.13 (non-AP bug fixes)
Friday November 13 2020.44.10.2 (expanded UI)

So unclear if Elon Musk is referring to a potential release this Friday November 20th as testers would mostly be using it during next week or literally the release that will potentially be going out next week Friday November 27th. In any case, there will likely need to be some data collection time before "widen beta," which is also unclear if it's widening the private beta or moving on to public beta.

If it does move to public beta, it would match up with the tail end of "public beta (early access owners who opt in) 4 to 6 weeks after [private beta]" https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1304802133355556864

 

[sperkin]

If they have experience with LiveOps and software release, they will not release anything on 11/27. No one wants to work during Thanksgiving looking and fixing bugs. Monday or Tuesday may be a new private release. If it looks good then after Thanksgiving is when more people will receive it.

 

[Twiglett]

I bought FSD but have not been part of any early access program.
I have little to no evidence, but it feels like the new feature rollout seems to be connected to your use of the car.
It feels like when I was driving more, especially with NOA etc, the car would get the latest release almost as it appeared.
Often it would be downloading before the release appeared on TeslaFi, but I was spending probably 70-80% of driving on AP.
Now I'm driving much less, with less AP use, its often many days before it appears - only got 44.15 yesterday for example.
But that is since 'rona lockdowns dramatically reduced driving, and the early traffic light beta and the appalling speed limit sign ignoring "feature" made AP useless for vast tracts of Texas roads.
Of course this is total speculation, but it feels connected somehow.

 

[turnem]

I bought FSD but have not been part of any early access program.
I have little to no evidence, but it feels like the new feature rollout seems to be connected to your use of the car.
It feels like when I was driving more, especially with NOA etc, the car would get the latest release almost as it appeared.
Often it would be downloading before the release appeared on TeslaFi, but I was spending probably 70-80% of driving on AP.
Now I'm driving much less, with less AP use, its often many days before it appears - only got 44.15 yesterday for example.
But that is since 'rona lockdowns dramatically reduced driving, and the early traffic light beta and the appalling speed limit sign ignoring "feature" made AP useless for vast tracts of Texas roads.
Of course this is total speculation, but it feels connected somehow.

I used to think that as well. But my driving is at an all-time low right now and I'm still getting updates just as soon as everyone else (according to TeslaFi).

I think I've driven my M3 a total of 2,000 miles since March.

 

[Mardak]

So far FSD private beta releases:
Wednesday October 21 2020.40.8.10 (initial release)
Friday October 23 2020.40.8.11
Friday October 30 2020.40.8.12 (updated UI)
Friday November 6 2020.40.8.13 (non-AP bug fixes)
Friday November 13 2020.44.10.2 (expanded UI)

Tuesday November 24 2020.44.15.3 ("beta 5")
Sunday November 29 2020.44.15.4 (more confident)
Saturday December 12 2020.48.10.1

We're around "two weeks" since https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1332500802750083074 so if the beta did get wider, I guess it was a wider private beta potentially for those who aren't allowed to share publicly. Dirty Tesla referred to this as "EAP" https://twitter.com/DirtyTesla/status/1337394685346799618