What is Tesla Motors' biggest flaw/challenge?

[Chickenlittle]

That battery capacity after 15 years will be at 50% or so. Like only 200km left, which now a BMW i3 has to offer.

Do we know that for sure? I have lost 2 miles after over 14 months and over 16000 miles. I don't know if loss is linear or accelerates. Nobody knows really, would not use roadster experience since battery packs have changed even from 1st model s

 

[snooper77]

That battery capacity after 15 years will be at 50% or so. Like only 200km left, which now a BMW i3 has to offer.

That may or may not be true - but even when it is true, you'll simply swap the old battery for a new one, which will be cheaper, lighter and will even have more capacity, simply because battery technology will advance a lot in 15 years.

 

[Matias]

I'm doubtful whether anyone will buy new battery for 15 years old car. In Finland we drive old cars because of high car tax, but even for us 15 years old car is too old for expensive reparations.

 

[Kitt]

http://www.plugincars.com/tesla-roa...udy-85-percent-after-100000-miles-127733.html 6 years now. Very promising and 100,000 miles is over average. Normally you drive that in 10 years.

Simply buying a new one sounds not that easy as it maybe. Think of the GIgafactory. 5 billion for 500,000 batteries. thats only 0.1 of total sold cars in 2020. We will need like 100-50 of those factories depending on the battery progress(lithiumsulfur would cut that from 100 to 50.
Still a long way to go to just put one grant onto the table and swap in a new batttery.
Good news is, big car manufacturers like VW have 100 billions cash!

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I'm doubtful whether anyone will buy new battery for 15 years old car. In Finland we drive old cars because of high car tax, but even for us 15 years old car is too old for expensive reparations.

If in 15 years driverless cars will cut car crashes to approximately zero the interest in buying new cars will dimnuish. ANd, you wont ever have significant reperations in BEVs. Thats the beauty of it. Only a aged battery.
An electic motor in a BEV will last for 100 years assuming a usage of 1hr/day. (they last for 30,000years+ already in industry.)

 

[green1]

I don't really think the battery problem will be all that big a deal, many cars approaching 10 or 15 years old require major work of some form already (My mercedes for instance needed a new transmission and a new timing chain at about 300,000km) by the time most Teslas make it to that age range, I don't expect a new battery pack (minus the core charge for the old one) to cost much more than that "routine" maintenance for the mercedes.
That said, a new battery for a 15 year old vehicle will be a pretty hard sell because you'll be approaching the value of the vehicle, but the same was true for my old mercedes.

 

[JRP3]

That battery capacity after 15 years will be at 50% or so. Like only 200km left, which now a BMW i3 has to offer.

1. Why did you feel the need to bump a 2 year old thread with a post that has nothing to do with the subject?
2. 50% capacity of a 265 mile EPA range Model S would be 132 miles, which is more than the BMW i3.
3. 15 years times 15,000 miles per year = 225,000 miles, divided by an average of say 230 miles per charge cycle = 978 cycles. The NCA chemistry that Tesla is using shows more than 2000 cycles to around 70% capacity, and capacity loss starts to level off.

 

[Skotty]

An EV like the Model S could very well last 30+ years. Heck, I still drive a 20 year old Jeep Wrangler as my backup car. I may be a little more optimistic than others, but the way the battery is managed, I bet it takes a good 40 years to get down to 50% capacity.

 

[qwk]

An EV like the Model S could very well last 30+ years. Heck, I still drive a 20 year old Jeep Wrangler as my backup car. I may be a little more optimistic than others, but the way the battery is managed, I bet it takes a good 40 years to get down to 50% capacity.

I agree. A 10-15 year old Model S 85kwh car with a 160+ mile range will still be very usable by the majority of people. I bet that there will be very few people that replace battery packs due to range issues for these cars. Just look at the Roadsters, the majority of cars have very little degradation, and the 1.5's are 5+ years old.

 

[Kitt]

the cool thing about an EV battery could be that lets say after 25 years when it has only 20-40 % of its capacity left you could use it in your house as a solar energy back up. 20kwh sounds like a solid backup.

 

[Electroman]

a 50% capacity Model S that has been on the road for 10+ years can be sold at over $20K and this is more than the resale value a corresponding BMW or Mercedes can command.. So what is the issue here ?

 

[Kitt]

1. Why did you feel the need to bump a 2 year old thread with a post that has nothing to do with the subject?
2. 50% capacity of a 265 mile EPA range Model S would be 132 miles, which is more than the BMW i3.
3. 15 years times 15,000 miles per year = 225,000 miles, divided by an average of say 230 miles per charge cycle = 978 cycles. The NCA chemistry that Tesla is using shows more than 2000 cycles to around 70% capacity, and capacity loss starts to level off.

Battery lifetime is the biggest flaw IMO. That is the main reason why people are so unsure about BEVs.
They fear to buy every 5 years a new battery for a huge amount of money.
Tesla fans of course not. But the overall population thinks like that and also other car manufacturers.
That Tesla Roadsters have driven 100,000 miles over 6 years is a very good sign for BEV mass adoption.

 

[SteveG3]

Thinking of the mass market car, I think what would make sense for Tesla, customer, and grid storage customer would be,

trade in 80% capacity 10 year old battery, get brand new battery, pay $5k


ive looked at this in the past assuming ~$130 kWh pack cost (this would only start to come into play late 2020s, so I think 130s is reasonable)

Tesla would make money, perhaps "reformat" batteries some but not have to add even more excess battery demand, (battery supply dwarfed by potentiL demand being Tesla's largest problem)

Customer would come to see car as having a 20 year lifetime, with a new battery halfway through.

What do you think would be worth more money in 2027, a 10 year old ICE you'll be buying gas for that originally cost $30K or a 10 year old Gen 3 with a brand new battery? I think the 10 year old/new battery Tesla is far more valuable. (I picked a $5K cheaper ICE because I think that's a conservative estimate of cost of ownership savings of G3 car over its first 10 years INCLUDING $5k for a battery trade in).

This is also a win for the energy storage customer who pays Tesla for the 80% capacity 10 year old battery.

I'm just sitting in a pizza shop recalculating math in my head, but if Tesla can cover costs of such a trade in process (including some sort of reformat of battery) for $1500 I think they'd make $3300 on the deal if they charged the grid storage buyer used batter which is now effectively 40 kWh $6.5k. Tesla could actually give you a 60 kWh for your old 50 kWh, and make $2k on $10k of costs

 

[Kitt]

that is actually a great idea. As weight is not important for stationary grid applications could be a perfect second usage fit.
Dont know exactly what u mean by your calculations, but the idea is great!
You mean with reformat recycling?

 

[SteveG3]

that is actually a great idea. As weight is not important for stationary grid applications could be a perfect second usage fit.
Dont know exactly what u mean by your calculations, but the idea is great!
You mean with reformat recycling?

Thanks Kitt,

by calculations, I basically mean, if Tesla charges you $5K to swap an 80% used 50 kWh for a new 60 kWh, and, we're looking at a $130 kWh cost circa 2027, then you have,

-Tesla taking in $5K plus old battery, and spending ~$7,800 on the 60 kWh battery they've given the Gen 3 owner ($130*60)

-Tesla spending $1,500 in transaction costs (transportation of both batteries, any reformat work on old battery...)

- Tesla receiving $6.5K from grid storage buyer for what's effectively a 40 kWh battery (a 20% gross margin on what would otherwise cost Tesla $5.2K to produce)

results in $11.5K revenue to Tesla, $9.3K in costs, for a $2.2K pretax profit, or just under 20% pre-tax margin, all while making Gen 3 owner, grid storage customer happy, with one new battery produced but, two batteries closer to Elon's goals for sustainable energy.

fwiw, I think Tesla will remain supply constrained on Gen III for many years, but if they come out with such a $5K battery replacement offer with the Gen III in 3 or 4 years, it will accelerate the lightbulb going off throughout the public that EVs have overtaken ICE in terms of value, and the public might start doing Elon's heavy lifting as far as prodding the existing automakers to start making good EVs.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Battery lifetime is the biggest flaw IMO. That is the main reason why people are so unsure about BEVs.
They fear to buy every 5 years a new battery for a huge amount of money.
Tesla fans of course not. But the overall population thinks like that and also other car manufacturers.
That Tesla Roadsters have driven 100,000 miles over 6 years is a very good sign for BEV mass adoption.

More FUD why would you pay for new battery every 5 years. Warrantee is 8 years?

 

[JRP3]

Battery lifetime is the biggest flaw IMO. That is the main reason why people are so unsure about BEVs.
They fear to buy every 5 years a new battery for a huge amount of money.

Not really, mostly people trying to spread misinformation think that way. The biggest "flaw" for the average person is price and range, and that's why most people are unsure about EV's.

 

[evme]

Not really, mostly people trying to spread misinformation think that way. The biggest "flaw" for the average person is price and range, and that's why most people are unsure about EV's.

I guess that in sense is a challenge. People who have no clue what they are talking about or on purpose trying to spread misinformation.

Personally I think at this point the biggest issue is cost. People don't drive as much as they think they do. (studies have shown this)


Other challenges involves not creating a negative stereotype.

Here is an example of something that can't possibly help with image of the brand. (Warning: Involves a Tesla but NSFW)

Why Is This Naked Man Doing Kung Fu In A Tesla Model S?

 

[JRP3]

People don't drive as much as they think they do. (studies have shown this)

That's my point, they think EV's don't have enough range, so it's an issue.

 

[Grendal]

Reading tens of thousands of comments on Tesla articles I'd have to say the general public's fears in the USA are:

1. Having the battery run out of energy. (Range anxiety) Answer: The more EV's on the road the less this becomes a fear since owners lose this fear very quickly after they get used to their cars. Tesla's answer: Superchargers.

2. Too expensive. Answer: Understanding the savings over the life of the car. Understanding that batteries DON'T suddenly die after 5 years and need to be replaced. Tesla's answer: The Model E and the battery life of the Roadsters.

3. Fire/Safety. Answer: Safer than gas/diesel cars. Tesla's answer: The best safety rating and statistically safer than every gas/diesel car on the market. The fires were media driven and not real.

 

[Skotty]

Reading tens of thousands of comments on Tesla articles I'd have to say the general public's fears in the USA are:

1. Having the battery run out of energy. (Range anxiety) Answer: The more EV's on the road the less this becomes a fear since owners lose this fear very quickly after they get used to their cars. Tesla's answer: Superchargers.

2. Too expensive. Answer: Understanding the savings over the life of the car. Understanding that batteries DON'T suddenly die after 5 years and need to be replaced. Tesla's answer: The Model E and the battery life of the Roadsters.

3. Fire/Safety. Answer: Safer than gas/diesel cars. Tesla's answer: The best safety rating and statistically safer than every gas/diesel car on the market. The fires were media driven and not real.

On #2, I'll just come out and say it. The Model S is too expensive for the middle class. It really is. I appreciate the cost of ownership arguments. It will save me money once I have it. But it's still a ton of dough up front. As much as I'd love to, I can just run out and buy one tomorrow. I have money, but I'm still having to carefully budget/plan/save so that I can buy a Model S (or maybe an X) a couple of years from now. Most people just don't do that. Most people wake up one day, maybe have some trouble with their old car, and say "I think I'll buy a new car today". No one is doing that with a Model S unless they are above middle class.

Still, Tesla has the right answer. The Model E, if and when it becomes a reality, will solve that problem and open Tesla up to a much wider pool of potential buyers.