What is the future of 100 mile EVs? Leaf, Focus, eGolf?

[Electroman]

With the upcoming Bolt and M3, I don't see the point why anyone would even bother with these 100 mile EVs? And the re-sale value? Probably in 4 figures?

It amazes me to even think that Nissan, who introduced the concept of a viable every day EV, was sleeping at the wheel. All they did was produce some snazzy videos of a futuristic autonomous driving EV. Losers !

 

[S'toon]

I've been wondering about this myself.

 

[BluestarE3]

I'm thinking there will still be a market for these "urban" EVs and that future offerings in this segment will be much less expensive than they are today.

 

[Boourns]

There are plenty of Leafs already in the 4 figures. And not with outrageous miles either. Here.

 

[eloder]

I'm sure there will still be a small market, for example smart electric drives do fantastic as a low-range, low-cost city EV.

Keep in mind there are still plenty of people who do well with low-range EVs today with no issues. These people likely will still buy super cheap used <100 mile range EVs in droves. My Leaf is my only car and has been for 1.5 years now without any issues.

 

[Saghost]

The Bolt and the 3 are certainly going to put price caps on lesser EVs, but they have viable roles as second or third cars for families.

A used Leaf is pretty much the perfect car to give a teenager - cheap to buy, cheap to run, safe, reliable, not powerful enough to be dangerous but quick enough for some fun, and you know they won't wander too far with it...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

The Bolt and the 3 are certainly going to put price caps on lesser EVs, but they have viable roles as second or third cars for families.

A used Leaf is pretty much the perfect car to give a teenager - cheap to buy, cheap to run, safe, reliable, not powerful enough to be dangerous but quick enough for some fun, and you know they won't wander too far with it...

The price of used Leafs is low because of the degradation issues and the range limitations. But, there is an active market for them. That's really a sign of what needs to happen to make short range and mid-range BEVs sell: the price needs to come down. But even if the price comes down, the problem for that market would be the availability of used long-range BEVs.

 

[Saghost]

The price of used Leafs is low because of the degradation issues and the range limitations. But, there is an active market for them. That's really a sign of what needs to happen to make short range and mid-range BEVs sell: the price needs to come down. But even if the price comes down, the problem for that market would be the availability of used long-range BEVs.

A short range EV will presumably remain cheaper to build than a long range EV. There will presumably continue to be a large portion of the market that prefers to buy a new car despite the savings used cars represent.

Given those two assumptions, I think a roll will remain for the shorter range EVs, though not necessarily a terribly large market share. Not something I'd seriously consider for a first or only car, but certainly a possibility for a second or third car for a family.

 

[miimura]

The first generation cars with EPA ranges between 75 and 90 miles will have low resale values and limited new car appeal and sales. If the current and upcoming Leaf, Focus, e-Golf, and IONIQ with 105-130 mile EPA ranges are priced new significantly lower than equivalently equipped Bolt and Model 3, then they could continue to get a meaningful number of new sales. The lower the price is, the more significant the incentives are. Also, those makers will continue to enjoy the incentives after GM and Tesla have exhausted their 200,000 unit allotments in the United States.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

The 2017 e-Golf is attractive as it uses the same body as the ICE Golf. It's no sub-brand or weird styling. I hope VW continues this and increases the battery size from 35kWh to 60-70kWh.

 

[Chuq]

We bought a second hand Leaf six months ago, which has a typical 80% range of 85 km.

My wife drives it most of the time - she has a varied schedule that me which makes her typical daily usage about 20-50 km.

In the event that the range of the Leaf deteriorates significantly (another decade), my average daily commute is 4 km return from home to work. Add in a trip to the supermarket and that is another 7 km return - even a range reduced to 25 km would be useful.

Of course we will have our Model 3 well in advance of that, which will handle the long trips (as our ICE does now).

The other option is that by that time, replacement Leaf batteries in the 40-50-60 kWh range will hopefully be not only available, but a plentiful commodity.

I guess it does depend where you live, as there are many people for whom even an 85 km range car would be pushing it.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Wonder if there will be guys like @Btr_ftw who will start to take old sub 100 mile EVs and put their used battery packs together to get more miles? Wonder if it's possible?

Probably a much cheaper option to try in the future... hint, hint, nudge, nudge...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

A short range EV will presumably remain cheaper to build than a long range EV. There will presumably continue to be a large portion of the market that prefers to buy a new car despite the savings used cars represent.

Given those two assumptions, I think a roll will remain for the shorter range EVs, though not necessarily a terribly large market share. Not something I'd seriously consider for a first or only car, but certainly a possibility for a second or third car for a family.

Assuming low battery prices are necessary for a self-sustaining BEV market, then we could be looking at $4k or less difference in battery cost between short and long rang. Given the utility provided by additional range, I don't know that there will be that much room for maneuver in the market, at least in the USA.

In any case, there's potential for autonomy to disrupt the market completely and render this discussion moot.

 

[cpa]

I think that these lower end BEVs will have some utility in smaller municipalities. Many small towns have needs for their employees to drive on official business throughout the day, and the car can be plugged in at their offices when not in use, and not driven to the municipal yard or gas station for refueling. Cities with tight budgets might like the ability to save even a few thousand per vehicle on a smallish battery in combination with lower maintenance and fueling costs.

Smaller businesses that deliver (like pharmacies and ironically, auto parts stores) could benefit as well.

 

[McRat]

People don't drive as far as they think they do:

Commuter Driving Statistics

75% of drivers are solo.

8% of drivers go more than 35 miles to work.

If you assume a cheap EV can only reliably go only 40 miles on a charge and there is no charging at work, there are 78% of people who could commute with an EV. ie - 20 miles one way or less.

It was not a mistake when GM designed the Volt to go 30 miles on electricity. That is 2/3's of drivers, or far more than the demand for economy cars of all kinds.

Obviously, they never sold the 30 mile model, only models from 35 to 53 miles EPA combined range.

So why do EV's sell like crap? Buyer resistance. They are comfortable with gas engined cars. They do not even consider an electric.

However, EV buyers tend to be a loyal bunch. We have far fewer "dropouts" than other niche automotive markets. Our segment is growing, slowly, but growing.

One great aspect of the 80 mile EV's is that they will introduce more people to EV's on the used market. Soon, the cheapest late model used economy car will be electric. And once they get used to electric, most will stay electric.

 

[McRat]

What I find funny is the the EV makers made what we NEED. What they didn't make was what we WANTED.

That must puzzle the crap out of the automakers. Well, except Tesla Motors, who make what people want.

 

[Nfuzzy]

I've had my Leaf over 2 years and still love it. Like others have said, there is a market for them but the price must come down. I think it is crazy that the MSRP of the Leaf S/SV is still about 30-33k yet it is pretty easy to find the dealer/nissan incentives that get them down to about 22-24k, and then the tax credits in CO get you down to around 10-12k.
Nissan just needs to drop the MSRP already. Too many people probably get sticker shock and don't look further.

 

[Canuck]

A used Leaf is pretty much the perfect car to give a teenager - cheap to buy, cheap to run, safe, reliable, not powerful enough to be dangerous but quick enough for some fun, and you know they won't wander too far with it...

Exactly. It's been the ideal car for my teenage daughters. And I even find my wife taking it instead of her BMW for short trips.

Don't bash the Leaf. It's like the ugly little runt that grows on you.

 

[Rockster]

My office is only 12 miles from home. A used Leaf would be perfect for that.

 

[SmartElectric]

At 50 km of range in the worst weather and 100 km in the best, my little Smart ED has been a great little commuter for 3 years.
I don't want or need more range from it.
My local dealer gave me a trade in quote of $8K for it, ouch, looks like I'm keeping it, it's worth more than that to me!